phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is going to a wild storm to watch develop, so many different possible solutions this is wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 48 Hours away and still no concensus. I would hate to be a forecaster for this area. A chance of 0 to 10 inches of snow...it's like shooting blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Feb 5, 2010. That is all. Unreal how much this is starting to look like it. Looking at those two NAM precip maps just bring back so many memories from 2 days before that storm. Of course, to a much larger extent now including NYC and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hi-Res Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What happened during that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its a shame I have to post this here, but its relevent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is the NAM usually bad...I thought it was better in the short term. So, are we saying that we aren't buying the NAM at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is the NAM usually bad...I thought it was better in the short term. So, are we saying that we aren't buying the NAM at this point? The image I just posted was the 0Z NAM forecast the night before the New England Blizzard in early Feb. So no, I wouldn't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seems the NAM has done this with at least one run inside of 48 hours every event this season. Use with caution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't like the qpf output from the nam, but the changes @ h5 match up well with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It verified correctly for New England though. No model is going to get it right for everybody. Just look at the almighty ECM today, it's trending northward towards the GFS / NAM solution. One shift is NOT a trend. If it continues moving north at 0z, then it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It verified correctly for New England though. No model is going to get it right for everybody. Just look at the almighty ECM today, it's trending northward towards the GFS / NAM solution. We're not in New England. The point you have apparently missed is that the NAM can be insanely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM is such a useless pile i dont even know where to start... The EURO nailed just about every aspect of the new england blizzard fro a couple days out, inlcuding the excessive qpf amounts and its placement of the band over CT to Boston...So saying the NAM verified because it was right about someone getting 2-3 feet of snow is just...its useless, end of story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But didn't you guys hear? It's dumb to toss any model. And LOL at Ray's NAM graphic coming to the surface. Ray, don't you know we have support from the JMA this time? For real, we are going to have to watch the GFS this evening and see how the vertical motion/frontogen fields evolve. Our area's biggest problem on the models that matter is that we get our lift during the worst time of day and during a time when the storm is "cycling" if you will (don't get me wrong, the banding is there and lift is there but it isn't as good over our region). The Philly snow hole can stay alive and well with a GFS like scenario unfolding while areas SW and NE of us add on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But didn't you guys hear? It's dumb to toss any model. And LOL at Ray's NAM graphic coming to the surface. Ray, don't you know we have support from the JMA this time? :)For real, we are going to have to watch the GFS this evening and see how the vertical motion/frontogen fields evolve. Our area's biggest problem on the models that matter is that we get our lift during the worst time of day and during a time when the storm is "cycling" if you will (don't get me wrong, the banding is there and lift is there but it isn't as good over our region).The Philly snow hole can stay alive and well with a GFS like scenario unfolding while areas SW and NE of us add on...and just like that, the GFS highlights that beautifully!!Still gets .75" into SE PA, but its ugly looking @ 6 hr increments: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But didn't you guys hear? It's dumb to toss any model. And LOL at Ray's NAM graphic coming to the surface. Ray, don't you know we have support from the JMA this time? For real, we are going to have to watch the GFS this evening and see how the vertical motion/frontogen fields evolve. Our area's biggest problem on the models that matter is that we get our lift during the worst time of day and during a time when the storm is "cycling" if you will (don't get me wrong, the banding is there and lift is there but it isn't as good over our region). The Philly snow hole can stay alive and well with a GFS like scenario unfolding while areas SW and NE of us add on... Lock it in. I am SW of HM. Why does NCEP run the NAM if it sucks so bad? A lot of the short range models are hits as well...don't they initialize off the same data ingestion? SO, is it a fair supposition to say that if the NCEP model suites are smoking crack and the NCEP globals and their short range counterparts are initializing with the same data pool and playing to their biases then it is watch the Euro and nowcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Although this is Sheena...it's Glenn's forecast I would think as of 4:55. Looks like he's not buying into the NAM which makes sense: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, 18Z GFS is definitely a bit snowier than the previous run... looks like, say, 2-3" at TTN. Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mount holly THE TEMPFORECAST WAS BLENDED DOWN FROM GUIDANCE USING THE COLDER 12Z NAMMOS TEMPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BANDING SIGNATURE FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE....BASICALLYI95 EASTWARD. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AND EXPECTINGHAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TIMING OF THE DETAILS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT ROADTREATMENTS OR PLOWING APPEARS LIKELY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 jeez what a turn around in 24 hrs. E. Pa went from nothing to potentially warning level snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS a little snowier mainly due to back-end snows wed night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS a little snowier mainly due to back-end snows wed night, yea its continuing to warm the bl for the front part of the storm pretty significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ed Hanna just went into boss mode. Says 1-3" for the lehigh valley but if it shifts 50 miles north we are gonna get big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup GFs quite warm during the day on wed. Some snow west on tues night and then wrap around wed night, yea its continuing to warm the bl for the front part of the storm pretty significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ed Hanna just went into boss mode. Says 1-3" for the lehigh valley but if it shifts 50 miles north we are gonna get big snows Yes they are associated with Accuweather, but WFMZ is the most accurate by far in the area. Ed always seems to be spot on with predictions. They are conservative, but accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mt Holly I AM CONCERNED THE COLDER NAM WILL PREVAIL OVERTHE WARMER GFS. IF IT DOES...WE HAVE A WET SNOWSTORM OF 6 PLUSINCHES WITH POWER OUTAGES. FOR SURE ELEVATIONS WILL DO BETTER THANTHE VALLEYS ON THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes they are associated with Accuweather, but WFMZ is the most accurate by far in the area. Ed always seems to be spot on with predictions. They are conservative, but accurate. i know, if ed wasnt associated with accuweather he would be a helluva met. 6ABC 2-4 philly to trenton 4-8 just south of philly C-2 ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i know, if ed wasnt associated with accuweather he would be a helluva met. 6ABC 2-4 philly to trenton 4-8 just south of philly C-2 ABE This is one tough forecast. It's March, snowfall will be predicated by elevation and rates. Higher rates may be south and east of the area while elevations to the north may be all snow. I have a bad feeling for the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is one tough forecast. It's March, snowfall will be predicated by elevation and rates. Higher rates may be south and east of the area while elevations to the north may be all snow. I have a bad feeling for the valley. I dont. I'm in the hills north of the valley and everyone should do alright. Ed hanna did say it will be all snow for the entire event for the LV with rain mixing to the south. I think we will see advisory level snow at this point., I wont hop on the warning snows till after the 00zs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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