Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think right now we have to see how much would fall late Wednesday into Wednesday night in terms of snow. That would be the best time to get any accumulation. Still very shaky in terms of getting snow say if your near Philly and interior South Jersey. I think the Euro is trending toward the GFS a bit. Still, a very complicated forecast. Yeah it's odd to see the gfs leading the way. Most of the models have trended that way today. Would be a major score for a American model this year. It was very highly disregarded yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you can throw in ILG too?.... Sorry for the IMBY question, but I am legitimately curious to see if being SW of Philly is doing anything in terms of "maximizing" the QPF and minimizing warm air intrusion. ILG... 0.69". Rates aren't great... generally less than 0.05"/hour which translates, in a decent atmosphere, to 0.5"/hour or less. With marginal temps it might not stick at all. One good thing is that the best rates ARE after dark Wednesday evening, so there's hope there for accumulations. ABE... 0.16"... rates are atrocious but its colder. I'd guess the EC gives ABE about an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 hour 60 of the GEFS ind. All are wthing 991-989 mbs. Thought that was pretty cool. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf060.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Taking a look at the individual GEFS members regarding snowfall, just about every single member is a massive hit from about 40 miles northwest of the city, northward and eastward with several members showing most of the area getting at least high end advisory snowfall. Long Island is mostly rain. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf096.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While we are asking for soundings....KGED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When all the 12z runs are done, it would be cool if a pro met/forecaster could summerize what it shows region wide, including further in the interior regions, like the extreme NE part of this subregion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 and the GFS vs EURO epic march battle continues... shift N on the euro Walt Drag called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ILG... 0.69". Rates aren't great... generally less than 0.05"/hour which translates, in a decent atmosphere, to 0.5"/hour or less. With marginal temps it might not stick at all. One good thing is that the best rates ARE after dark Wednesday evening, so there's hope there for accumulations. ABE... 0.16"... rates are atrocious but its colder. I'd guess the EC gives ABE about an inch of snow. Thanks, Ray. I'm very, very curious to see what Mt. Holly has to say at 3:30 when they potentially issue watches. Would guess they incude Cecil, New Castle, Delaware, Philadelphia, Chester and maybe a few in SNJ where the criterion is 4" not 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks, Ray. I'm very, very curious to see what Mt. Holly has to say at 3:30 when they potentially issue watches. Would guess they incude Cecil, New Castle, Delaware, Philadelphia, Chester and maybe a few in SNJ where the criteria is 4" not 6"... They sound like they are hugging the gfs and SREFS in that case I assume advisorys would be issued all the way up to alletown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowyCane22 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Question - It may be considered weenie, but ya never learn till you ask... living close to the New Jersey coast is there anyway we can see accumulating snowfall totals that match inland areas if things go best case scenario or even a mixture of model solutions? I am not looking for specific amounts just trying to gauge what impacts down this way for those of us in limbo forum wise between nyc and philly... Or is the setup not conducive no matter the track for anything worth getting excited about down this way? Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 They sound like they are hugging the gfs and SREFS in that case I assume advisorys would be issued all the way up to alletown Well, I don't think our NWS office hugs any model..... I think they happen to agree with the model output from the GFS more than the ECMWF as they've pointed out that post-Sandy, it's accuracy within 5-days has not been stellar in our area. :-) I don't think they'd issue advisories so far out.. those would typically go up when the event is right on our doorstep, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, I don't think our NWS office hugs any model..... I think they happen to agree with the model output from the GFS more than the ECMWF as they've pointed out that post-Sandy, it's accuracy within 5-days has not been stellar in our area. :-) I don't think they'd issue advisories so far out.. those would typically go up when the event is right on our doorstep, right? Most likely. If they want to issue watches, they'd go up today probably, but not likely advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Chester and Cecil get the watch (criteria 4" or more) WWUS41 KPHI 041951WSWPHIURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ251 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013...A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL CAUSE WINTRY TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR PORTIONSOF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MDZ008-PAZ101-102-050400-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.130306T0900Z-130306T2300Z/CECIL-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE251 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A TRACE OF ICE. ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY MAY HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS. * TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOSTLY SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL ASSIST MELTING ON TREATED SURFACES. NEVERTHELESS...SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENOUGH WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TO CAUSE A FEW BRANCHES TO BREAK AND FORCE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE SNOW LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A HALF OR BRIEFLY EVEN A QUARTER MILE.* ENDING TIME...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SMALL FURTHER ACCUMULATION.* EXPANSION OF WATCH AREA...ITS POSSIBLE THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED EXPANSION TO LARGER SECTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHERN DELAWARE IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCE'S TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think Berks has had a Winter Storm Warning all season? Lots of advisory stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not too impressive...Actually expected to see a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not too impressive...Actually expected to see a bit more Sad to say but that may be the biggest hit for Philly all year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sad to say but that may be the biggest hit for Philly all year... and chances are , unless it moves north, it still wont be, becuase it wont stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam is a paste bomb for I-95 area. Ccb from Phl-NYC. I know it's the nam. Verbatim that's what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is hugging the coast. Pretty heavy precip into area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks like .50 makes it to LV on the nam EDIT .75"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snow forecast Based on Walt's Noon update in Mount Holly disco and the Euro tick N, I kind of expected NCC Del., and Delco PA to get WSW. I live 2 mi from Kennett Square so I guess I am safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Philly area up through NYC probably has the lowest confidence of this low confidence forecast. Siding a bit more with the Euro still on this one, but made a bit of a compromise between it and the GFS: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-84-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-march-5-7-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z SREF continues slow increase in snow probablilities for area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z nam was reaaaaal nice phl/nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam snowmap http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194903 Not a member, can you post picture. Philly just got "NAM'd"....Shows similar precip pattern as the JMA...but its the NAM and it is a terrible model, but leds credence to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't post pics on this forum anymore for some reason.. U don't have to be a member, it was opened in a new tab.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not a member, can you post picture. Philly just got "NAM'd"....Shows similar precip pattern as the JMA...but its the NAM and it is a terrible model, but leds credence to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just to compare the qpf field.. hour 75 of the 18z nam on the left, 12z on the right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Philly just got "NAM'd"....Shows similar precip pattern as the JMA...but its the NAM and it is a terrible model, but leds credence to the GFS actually, the NAM destroyed the GFS this year during connecticut's 40" snowstorm. GFS had around a foot at most predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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