NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Jim Hayes works for WPC* now. Fixed. Anyhow, euro initialized ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I could live with that...I imagine this is a non-paved surface sticking situation Eh I wouldn't say that. Surface temp is running around 30. Should stick to all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 through 36, our ULL orientation is slightly more NEg, SLP is a bit stronger (4mb), and the energy over NY/NE is a bit more noticable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 42, SFC features almost identical to 0z, there's more interaction with that said energy over upstate NY. (all compared to 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its a shift n of its 0z run, and there's that "phantom" sw the GFS has been showing over top NY state rotating around the ULL. Havent checked surface yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 through 36, our ULL orientation is slightly more NEg, SLP is a bit stronger (4mb), and the energy over NY/NE is a bit more noticable. It is amazing how "accuracy" on medium range models can be justified quantitatively through NH 500mb error (and rightfully so) but not actually get the evolution right at all, locally. The piece coming back underneath the block from the NW Atlantic will end up bringing this north like a few of the runs last week when the Great Lakes wave was trying to phase. A completely different scenario for sure but perhaps glazed over under the guise of SLP/500mb anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 and the GFS vs EURO epic march battle continues... shift N on the euro, but still not as amp'd/N as the GFS. the .5"-.75" qpf line barely makes in 10 miles into PA parallel to the mason dixon line by hour 72. (total qpf, not 6hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The EURO puts us in .5-.75, but it doesn't show heavy rates so prob not much accumulation...the JMA on the other hand shows over 2" of QPF for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just looking at e-wall. Euro takes the low east from Va Capes. Could actually be snowier than GFS in this area since it does not hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just looking at e-wall. Euro takes the low east from Va Capes. Could actually be snowier than GFS in this area since it does not hug the coast. Verbatim surface temps are colder then gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Another 30 miles on the euro could bury phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eh... EC rates don't look very good. Maybe there's a brief period where its 0.10-0.20" an hour, but overall its mainly 0.05" an hour type stuff. That's not going to be very effective against what is, at best, a marginal BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Another 30 miles on the euro could bury phl. More like 50 and about 8-10 mb of strengthening would be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 screaming east wind, temps in upper 30's on the EC in Philly...that's not snow...and even those bands aren't that heavy to cause dynamic cooling. Some of ya'll need to take the snow goggles off. Yes, it *can* snow but you need more than sub zero 850's to get it to snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 screaming east wind, temps in upper 30's on the EC in Philly...that's not snow...and even those bands aren't that heavy to cause dynamic cooling. Some of ya'll need to take the snow goggles off. Yes, it *can* snow but you need more than sub zero 850's to get it to snow in March. wtf is wrong with DT? His latest post "12z euro still south, keep dreaming NYC and NE" What kind of arrogance is that? Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More like 50 and about 8-10 mb of strengthening would be needed. agreed. Euro, while N, is still a dreary look to it. (cold and wet).... the precip rates suck,a dn not sure how we manage to pull off .5" of QPF in the immediate phl metro.. The gradient is tight as hell though. Still, the euro trended towards the GFS, but i have to wonder if the GFS takes a step backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Walt Drag special 12PM update! SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZING INCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG. Looks to be another in a series of Western Chesco elevation specials! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think my initial guess for TTN is "up to 2". And by "up to 2" I'm leaving the window open for there being no actual accumulation at all. If banding and cold air come together just right though, I can imagine 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 screaming east wind, temps in upper 30's on the EC in Philly...that's not snow...and even those bands aren't that heavy to cause dynamic cooling. Some of ya'll need to take the snow goggles off. Yes, it *can* snow but you need more than sub zero 850's to get it to snow in March. Tom, can you tell if the rates in NE MD and Northern DE are significantly different from those in Philly? There are quite a few of us in this sub-forum and it's largely a mystery to us what to believe when presented with the glowing commentary in the MA forum and the stark realistm commentary in the PHI forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Tom, can you tell if the rates in NE MD and Northern DE are significantly different from those in Philly? There are quite a few of us in this sub-forum and it's largely a mystery to us what to believe when presented with the glowing commentary in the MA forum and the stark realistm commentary in the PHI forum. I'm not Tom, but I can tell you that they look pretty abysmal near the PA & MD/DE border... better rates down towards Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think right now we have to see how much would fall late Wednesday into Wednesday night in terms of snow. That would be the best time to get any accumulation. Still very shaky in terms of getting snow say if your near Philly and interior South Jersey. I think the Euro is trending toward the GFS a bit. Still, a very complicated forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More like 50 and about 8-10 mb of strengthening would be needed. Another 30 miles on the euro could bury phl. Agree that is an overstatement. Going to be difficult to get good snows into phl. Still shifting the Euro a little north wouldn't be a bad outcome for areas with elevation and would produce some wet snow at low elevations.even if accumulations were limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Tom, can you tell if the rates in NE MD and Northern DE are significantly different from those in Philly? There are quite a few of us in this sub-forum and it's largely a mystery to us what to believe when presented with the glowing commentary in the MA forum and the stark realistm commentary in the PHI forum. hour 60 -- .25 runs from the E Shore of MD NE to DOV to Longport, SE of E Shore to Bethany. hour 54 -- .25 runs south of Manchester MD SE to BWI to W of Salisbury. .50 near Mt. Vernon, VA and south. hour 48 -- .25 runs south of Lewes to Manchester MD. .50 over WV/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The general consensus I'm seeing is 0-3" for down here.....anyone agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have run down on precip totals by city? Looking for KABE, MPO and RDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have run down on precip totals by city? Looking for KABE, MPO and RDG What model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What model? If you can throw in ILG too?.... Sorry for the IMBY question, but I am legitimately curious to see if being SW of Philly is doing anything in terms of "maximizing" the QPF and minimizing warm air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What model? Euro sorry. Scratch that I saw KABE was posted at .18 How do temps looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well the JMA solution can be eliminated entirely I would think. I haven't seen the 500mb yet on the JMA but seems like it has lost its mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro sorry. Scratch that I saw KABE was posted at .18 How do temps looks? Since the precip reaches ABE late, temps are supported for frozen - about 33/34 degrees. Not sure it accumulates much considering how light it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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