snowlurker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The precip maps looking a lot like 2/6/10....maybe a smidge further south....from a couple days out prior to that storm. Heavier precip has been edging slightly further north generally on the models. I wonder what soundings look like from the NAM and 6z GFS for ILG at this point. I have about 350' in elevation in the northern part of the state......I'm wishing for one last 25 mile bump north on this thing....50 miles and we'd be golden again.The sim radar off the 12z NAM has a sick deform band right over me around 51 hrs out....that alone would put down more snow in 3 hrs than I've seen all winter probably. At ILG, it looks like the freezing line stays at just below 950mb from 48-51hrs. It drops to just below 975mb at 54hrs and stays there to 57hrs. At 60hrs, the freezing line goes back to somewhere between 950-975mb. I'm not a met and do not have experience interpreting these, but "verbatim" it appears that it's rain. Over this period of time, it's 0.87" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Although the precip maps may look similar, it appears that ILG stays too warm. The freezing line at DCA stays just above the surface from 48-60. In particular, (in degrees F) ILG is 4.4, 4.9, 1.0, 0.6 and 1.1 warmer than DCA at the surface at 48, 51, 54, 57, and 60 hours, respectively. At the risk of sounding like Eeyore, I'm afraid this won't be anything like 2/5-6/10 for New Castle County. Perhaps we'll eke out 2 inches of slush on the grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh boy...GFS not only holds the idea of the "NW Atlantic Low help" but it has trended towards more interaction. This is basically a gift from the very feature acting to suppress the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowyCane22 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh boy...GFS not only holds the idea of the "NW Atlantic Low help" but it has trended towards more interaction. This is basically a gift from the very feature acting to suppress the flow. Canoes ready in toms river! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh boy...GFS not only holds the idea of the "NW Atlantic Low help" but it has trended towards more interaction. This is basically a gift from the very feature acting to suppress the flow. This is wild...Just when you think there is no chance of a north trend in this setup...the GFS is finding a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like gfs is north with precip placement. I'm on my phone so I can't check soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh boy...GFS not only holds the idea of the "NW Atlantic Low help" but it has trended towards more interaction. This is basically a gift from the very feature acting to suppress the flow. the euro almost tried that last night, then got away from it. EIther way, either the GFS or EURO are gonna bust badly in this, Just a question as to who... (ps, boston gets 3.1" qpf on this run)! lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, but what are the local forecasters in our area suppose to do if the ECMWF/GFS can't agree on this feature? Taking the compromise route will leave your forecast up to major revision/busting simply because it's either all/nothing. Oh and LOL at Mt Laurel NJ continually missing every storm this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ukie went north a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I missing something or is the 12z GFS a rather substantial hit for us in the immediate Philly area (compared to all other recent model runs) with the qualification, of course, that temps might still be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS continues to be warmer than SREF or NAM. Even for the north solutions there is a big difference in snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I missing something or is the 12z GFS a rather substantial hit for us in the immediate Philly area (compared to all other recent model runs) with the qualification, of course, that temps might still be an issue? 925 mb temps are at or above freezing in philly Wednesday. Looks like a very cold rain Wednesday but not by much on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I missing something or is the 12z GFS a rather substantial hit for us in the immediate Philly area (compared to all other recent model runs) with the qualification, of course, that temps might still be an issue? BL stinks. If the FGEN QPF bomb over SE NJ makes its way NW to PHL, then its a different story, but as shown on the GFS, its not snow til later at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 925 mb temps are at or above freezing in philly Wednesday. Looks like a very cold rain Wednesday but not by much on the 12z GFS. At this point, I'll take it... not the rain, but the fact that the heavier precip seems to be finally trending our way. Now, if we can just get the Euro to cave and come north, too..... Edit: ...and, of course, bring those temps down a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BL stinks. If the FGEN QPF bomb over SE NJ makes its way NW to PHL, then its a different story, but as shown on the GFS, its not snow til later at night. Sorry to ask, Ray but how is it looking out towards LNS. I'd imagine its better but I'm on my phone and can't look at soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sorry to ask, Ray but how is it looking out towards LNS. I'd imagine its better but I'm on my phone and can't look at soundings On the GFS, out there you can start cold and snowy, then maybe warm up as the day progresses so you could get 2-4 in the morning, then warm up a little too much (so go over to rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow). GFS doesn't show much after 0Z out there so a coating to 2 inches might be your finale. So... 3-6 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 On the GFS, out there you can start cold and snowy, then maybe warm up as the day progresses so you could get 2-4 in the morning, then warm up a little too much (so go over to rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow). GFS doesn't show much after 0Z out there so a coating to 2 inches might be your finale. So... 3-6 maybe? thanks. Going to be interesting what the euro does next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BL stinks. If the FGEN QPF bomb over SE NJ makes its way NW to PHL, then its a different story, but as shown on the GFS, its not snow til later at night. I agree with this. It is freakin' close and it would be all snow if the forcing was better. The areas that get the wet snow pasting are generally during the times of cyclone maturing/positive frontogen (MD-VA and New England). We get the storm as it occludes / redevelops which reduces the strength of the banding to some extent. The freezing levels at worst get to about 2500 ft across the I-95 corridor during the day Wednesday but are considerably lower before and after diurnal peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hey guys, Just popping in...is the latest trend to the north? Does it make it up as far as Berks/Lehigh. Thanks. I will be back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hey guys, Just popping in...is the latest trend to the north? Does it make it up as far as Berks/Lehigh. Thanks. I will be back later. That's what I'm trying to figure out. They say GFS went way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How much stock can we honestly in this scenario? This is a forecasting nightmare for me I can tall you that. There will be an epic fail one side or the other. Common sense says the GFS wouldn't be the go to here over the ECMWF/UKMET combo... but I am at a loss here. I can see both sides of the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hey guys, Just popping in...is the latest trend to the north? Does it make it up as far as Berks/Lehigh. Thanks. I will be back later. For RDG, the GFS shows them making good like LNS in the morning, not quite as much but 2-3" certainly doable. Then it warms up, just like at LNS, so rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow for a while, then the coating to 2 inches on the backside. So ... 3-5? on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's what I'm trying to figure out. They say GFS went way north. I am looking at very low resolution graphics so somebody else could give you better info, but, on the 12z, it looks like the 0.5 to 0.75 range gets into the Lehigh Valley and that 0.5 line might even be into the Southern Poconos. Temps are a different matter, but way up there should be fine... or at least a lot better than down here in the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For RDG, the GFS shows them making good like LNS in the morning, not quite as much but 2-3" certainly doable. Then it warms up, just like at LNS, so rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow for a while, then the coating to 2 inches on the backside. So ... 3-5? on the GFS. Agree with Ray Broad brushing it. Looks like 1-4 in NW suburbs, 3-6 in Lanco, Berks and LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I could live with that...I imagine this is a non-paved surface sticking situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I could live with that...I imagine this is a non-paved surface sticking situation There can be some accumulation on the pavement Wednesday morning... but it would melt by midday most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Walt Drag special 12PM update! **POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD** THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OUR INTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AGAIN AT 330 PM. THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIME AVAILS. IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM. 500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS IN THE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES. HAZARDS: TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITS NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED NORTH. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE IN THE TIDE SECTION. HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS. EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY. SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZING INCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY HAVE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS....ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. FOR NOW... THERE CAN BE A SMALL ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 8 AM WEST AND SW OF KPHL. THERE WILL BE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE DAY BUT WHETHER ITS WASHED AWAY BY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITH A BENT BACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WOULD NOT ONLY BE A TRAVEL REMOVAL HAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. WE MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES AT 330 PM TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A POSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOME AREAS. AS FAR THE DAILY DETAILS... THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ENERGY POURED INTO THE FCST GRIDS BEYOND THURSDAY...RELYING SOLELY ON THE 15Z/4 HPC GRIDDED FORECAST GUIDANCE...UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. OTHERWISE WE WILL UPDATE THE DETAILS HEREIN AROUND 330 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mt. Holly mets, Nierenberg, Gorse, Drag, Hayes and Gigi. Best starting lineup in all of the NWS!! NCEP Diagnostic Disco from Paul Kocin. Read it and weep folks: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1110 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013VALID MAR 04/1200 UTC THRU MAR 08/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......12Z NAM EVALUATION...MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS WILL BE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING...STAGNANT UPR CYCLONE LINGERING ACRS COASTAL UPR NEW ENGLAND...THE UPPER LOW EAST OF MAINE BY MONDAY EVENING IS FINALLY FORECASTTO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH IT LEAVES BEHIND A WEAKDISTURBANCE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM HASSOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT INGENERAL IS WITHIN A REASONABLE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS....PAIR OF DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANDSWRN U.S......EVENTUAL MERGER AND AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST LEADING TO SSIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEEVALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COMPLEXSYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SYSTEMATICMODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM CAMP AND THE ECMWF/UKMETCAMP. THE NCEP MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLES/NAM/GFS/GEFS ARE SYSTEMATICALLY FARTHER NORTH THAN WITH THE UPPER LOW STARTINGON TUESDAY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INCREASING ONWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 09ZSREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARD TOSPEED APPEARS PRETTY UNIFORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.OVERNIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS ANDAPPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER ITWAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWFHAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHERNORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EASTCOAST. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 6Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERYSTABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSOCONTINUING.IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCETHE CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE COAST...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACHNORTHWARD INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMETHINGTHAT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THEUKMET DOES...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN DO NOT. THE NAM500 MB LOW IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REASONABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONSSHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS SLIGHTLYFARTHER NORTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL ASTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHERETHE SURFACE LOWS ARE NEARLY EXACT....UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIABY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED BY THE 00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN/ AND THE 09Z SREFMEAN THROUGHTHURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES LEADING UP TO THAT TIME. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MEANS ONWEDNESDAY WITH AN ODD 500 MB FEATURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIAWEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STARTS TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAYEVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS ALSO DEMONSTRATED BY THE00Z UKMET BUT THE OTHER MODELS APPEAR TO KEEP THE TROUGH AN OPENSYSTEM....UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZING OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVINGTOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NORTH OFMINNESOTA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANSMAINTAIN THE SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY WHERE THE SREF/GEFS DO NOT. THE00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS ALSO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THEFORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM MOSTLY LOSES THE FEATURE BY THURSDAYMORNING....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtmlKOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mt. Holly mets, Nierenberg, Gorse, Drag, Hayes and Gigi. Best starting lineup in all of the NWS!! I love reading his write ups on costal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mt. Holly mets, Nierenberg, Gorse, Drag, Hayes and Gigi. Best starting lineup in all of the NWS!! NCEP Diagnostic Disco from Paul Kocin. Read it and weep folks: Jim Hayes works for HPC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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