Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 whoops thanks. UKMET north but still nada north of ILG There may be a few mm more after 0z Thu but obviously the main action remains south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS: regardless of temps, something has to give between the DC- BOS on the gfs model, and the dc balt- fishes on the earlier runs/0z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC on the UKMET: Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Regarding the UKMET, it was consistently too far south with last week's storm in the GLOV. It was the most consistent model, but ended up verifying horribly until about 24 hours out. With the Ukie riding the southern edge of the guidance envelope this time around as well makes me think it's something worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 doesnt the gfs have a warm BL bias? lol No. If anything it might be biased cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its pretty remarkable how much precip the 00z GEFS gives to SNE...I mean is it possible it could be off by over 2" of QPF 3-4 days out, wow. One set of models will cave, and I'm pretty sure which. Though I'll never forget the GFS coup of 2010, this is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol Canadians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Earthlight: Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams...everything farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Earthlight: Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams...everything farther north. They were very depressed in the NYC thread that there wasn't more adjustment in the EC with the actual storm, based on this. And what, no comments about the NAM swinging back north? I thought we were now OK with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wash thread going a tad nuts....what does that mean for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This makes me feel all warm and fuzzy... Not Just looked up Atlantic City, NJ.. How's 11 hours of tropical storm force winds with rain mixing with snow at times sound? I imagine Rehobeth is going to be in the wind jet even longer than that. I want some snow, not a Sandy redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 6Z GFS shifted south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The lack of consistency in track on the GFS is a bit of an eyeroll. The Euro's general consistency for us continues to stand out. It's either scoring the coup for the most part or its going to suck eggs in this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why no mention on the 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why no mention on the 0z euro? Because it suppressed almost all precip south of the PA Turnpike and has shown the same solution for the umpteenth run in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Last nights Euro is a little better for those along the N edge. Gets good snow into S central Pa. The Euro Ens also look a little better with 48-hr low in extreme NE Kentucky and 500 mb low a little further N in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Out of the current guidance, the Euro is the worst with regards to coastal impacts. Its storm track and pressure fields result in a more prolonged onshore wind for the NJ and DE coastlines than any of the other models - in fact, the wind never loses an easterly component in these areas on the Euro. The GFS and NAM both indicate windshifts to the N and NNW soon after the onshore winds peak. The Euro is just an abysmally nightmarish scenario for recovering coastal areas; that's reason enough to hope it's dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Out of the current guidance, the Euro is the worst with regards to coastal impacts. Its storm track and pressure fields result in a more prolonged onshore wind for the NJ and DE coastlines than any of the other models - in fact, the wind never loses an easterly component in these areas on the Euro. The GFS and NAM both indicate windshifts to the N and NNW soon after the onshore winds peak. The Euro is just an abysmally nightmarish scenario for recovering coastal areas; that's reason enough to hope it's dead wrong. It still looks like we are piling water starting tomorrow night and it doesn't get a chance to escape until Thursday PM. Clearly the WED PM and THU AM high tide cycles are going to be nasty for the DE-S NJ shore and probably further north with significant impacts. What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It still looks like we are piling water starting tomorrow night and it doesn't get a chance to escape until Thursday PM. Clearly the WED PM and THU AM high tide cycles are going to be nasty for the DE-S NJ shore and probably further north with significant impacts. What a shame. It'll certainly be a major problem either way, regardless of which camp verifies/comes closer to verifying. The GFS backs the wind around at ACY to due N during the evening Wednesday, but the GFS is, of course, still a northern outlier. Normal astronomical tide levels will help, but a bad storm will be bad regardless of whether it has a full or new moon. Verbatim, this looks like moderate tidal flooding on the GFS/NAM and severe on the Euro. The Euro's slow movement and E/ENE track is scarily similar to '62. It has trended (ticked, really) towards a faster/slightly more NE solution over its past two runs, but still has a long way to go before it shows a much shorter duration onshore wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Let's also discuss something interesting WRT to the GFS: if the northern solutions are correct, I'm not so sure it's rain for the I-95 area/points west. There is some decent frontogenesis being modeled with the initial shot and obviously good moisture advection. The soundings are above freezing in the lowest 500m for PHL at 12z WED on the 6z GFS. Wet bulbs/dews start below 0C to the surface when precip arrives. So if the northern solutions end up being correct and we do get some appreciable lift with the frontogen, it could be an interesting start to the storm...not just the end...for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Current Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 6z data has snow arriving by 2am on Wed with it getting heavy by rush hour. Snow continues till around midnight with it painting/pasting a general 6" to 8" of wet snow above 600ft here in the NW Philly burbs...of course this is and will change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is north of 0z, south of 6z with precip shield through hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip shield orients very similarly to 6z between 48 and 54. Heavy swath of rain/snow DC-DOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is north of 0z, south of 6z with precip shield through hr 48.yeah, its not as north with the precip shield out in western pa, but by 54, the precip shield orientation is simliar to 6z. DC gets a nice hit this run.SO nam and euro in the same camp? 1 thing i did notice, is a but more energy left over in NE compared to the 6z. BY 60, its tugging at the main ULL a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 925 temps 0 line doesnt make it past buena NJ this run.. cold i guess. also, by 48 on, there's a 55-65knt LLJ screaming into the mouth of the del bay and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 way out of range, but the sref plumes for philly as of now is a mean of 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM is more snow than rain IMO for a lot of the area. But I'm waiting for the rest of the 12z runs before considering the possibility of MD/VA's pasting coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 way out of range, but the sref plumes for philly as of now is a mean of 8 inches. Take out the cold bias ARW's and that is cut in half. Still a mean of 4 though. SREF staying the course from yesturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC gets dynamical cooling to the max. Watching to see if that microclimate- 33/34 with hvy precip can fight northeast. Gets into northeast MD/ ILG on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The precip maps looking a lot like 2/6/10....maybe a smidge further south....from a couple days out prior to that storm. Heavier precip has been edging slightly further north generally on the models. I wonder what soundings look like from the NAM and 6z GFS for ILG at this point. I have about 350' in elevation in the northern part of the state......I'm wishing for one last 25 mile bump north on this thing....50 miles and we'd be golden again. The sim radar off the 12z NAM has a sick deform band right over me around 51 hrs out....that alone would put down more snow in 3 hrs than I've seen all winter probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.