famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 040145 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0144Z MON MAR 04 2013 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED ON TIME. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 72240/LCH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 74494/CHH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 91765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 78970/POS - 10159 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 127-103 MB...TOO COLD 91334/TKK - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 850-809 MB...WET BULB EFFECT HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP It initialized 100 mb temps too cold, but I doubt that helps you. Although I'm not sure what's being referred to by "wet bulb effect" You are misunderstanding the message. This data is from soundings that either was not available, or was "purged" (deleted) before ingest due to the sounding having what appeared to be erroneous data. "Wet bulb effect" occurs when the thermometer gets wet, then passes through dry air and cools off like a wet bulb thermometer does... producing an unrealistic lapse rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The trend on the NAM is for a colder profile, thus more snow. And good luck getting 4" of snow to stick after half an inch of rain is running down the streets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on the NY forum: 0z Hi-Res Nam has the precip much further north than the regular Nam at hour 60. Check this out.Namhttp://mag.ncep.noaa...0_sim_radar.gifHi Reshttp://mag.ncep.noaa...eflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And good luck getting 4" of snow to stick after half an inch of rain is running down the streets They will be covered by 2-4 feet of storm surge, grass looks good for accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You are misunderstanding the message. This data is from soundings that either was not available, or was "purged" (deleted) before ingest due to the sounding having what appeared to be erroneous data. "Wet bulb effect" occurs when the thermometer gets wet, then passes through dry air and cools off like a wet bulb thermometer does... producing an unrealistic lapse rate. Oh so it's not that the NAM initialized with these things wrong, but that they were noticed before initialization and corrected/purged? Does NCEP also release a product that examines how well the first guess field compares to reality then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on the NY forum: 0z Hi-Res Nam has the precip much further north than the regular Nam at hour 60. Check this out. Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa...0_sim_radar.gif Hi Res http://mag.ncep.noaa...eflectivity.gif 4 km NAM was a complete joke last week out in NW IN. It consistently advertised 6-8" of snow, we got 1.5". Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through 57, looks like the GFS's precip contours are more N&W vs 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh so it's not that the NAM initialized with these things wrong, but that they were noticed before initialization and corrected/purged? Correct. Does NCEP also release a product that examines how well the first guess field compares to reality then? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1025 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM...ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM HAVE BEEN DEEMED TO BETOO INSIGNIFICANT TO IMPACT ITS FCST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS and NAM are worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS says it's on! Scratching my head at lack of significant qpf in pa as the low creeps ne past the mouth of delaware bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Correct. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1025 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM...ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM HAVE BEEN DEEMED TO BETOO INSIGNIFICANT TO IMPACT ITS FCST. ah ha, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS and NAM are worlds apart The gap between the GFS and Euro becomes even larger and the GFS handling of the H5 features is favorable for NW areas despite the low QPF. This solution appears to be an outlier and will probably not agree with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0Z GFS definitely showing precip shield further to the north. At 75 hrs, the total QPF for the .5, .75, and 1.0 contours all look 50+ miles shifted northward. Jackpot area still south, but this is definitely north... 0z here.... 18Z here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Low position is similar to 18z to about OC Md and then east but has higher qpf all the way up the coast from phl to bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Low position is similar to 18z to about OC Md and then east but has higher qpf all the way up the coast from phl to bos. Any idea why? Sorry to be asking questions that may seem obtuse.. but if the low is similarly positioned, why do folks think the QPF field is so much more expansive? Weaker low pressure center?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The initial ULL maxes out so that DC gets heaviest precip. We still get some though...Then as the phasing begins it restrengthens and pounds SNE. We get precip, but thats why we get the least out of the 4 major cities. I still don't buy it though. Either way it's making me have a tough decision on where to roadtrip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Destructive storm for the coast if the GFS is right. Thermal profiles are way too warm and the overall progression of the run is crazy. If it's not going to snow it should just get the hell out of the way. Let Boston have their second KU event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAsty LLJ on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS and NAM are worlds apart soon we will see which world the 0z euro will be on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 soon we will see which world the 0z euro will be on. .75 into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does anyone have plots showing how much QPF is falling as snow, rain, or sleet/IP? The clown map showed very little accumulated snowfall around here, in spite of the fairly high QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does anyone have plots showing how much QPF is falling as snow, rain, or sleet/IP? The clown map showed very little accumulated snowfall around here, in spite of the fairly high QPF. The whole bl blows. Max I saw was like 3 Inches out by western chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The whole bl blows. Max I saw was like 3 Inches out by western chesco doesnt the gfs have a warm BL bias? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ggem almost identical to the GFS precip... Very nice, but is is falling as rain or snow? GFS Clown maps looked like more rain than not, but I did see a comment suggesting the GFS blew on the BL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very nice, but is is falling as rain or snow? GFS Clown maps looked like more rain than not, but I did see a comment suggesting the GFS blew on the BL... rain i believe, rain everywhere expect VA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS hugs the coast and brings in warm air off the ocean hence heaviest snows are further west in N Va to S Central PA. Area gets a period of snow wed night as storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS hugs the coast and brings in warm air off the ocean hence heaviest snows are further west in N Va to S Central PA. Area gets a period of snow wed night as storm pulls away. Okay.. lol, we solved the issue of not getting as much QPF.. now we need to work on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ggem almost identical to the GFS precip... old run. Check the time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 old run. Check the time stamp. whoops thanks. UKMET north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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