blinkers88 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... I blame the SREFs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... Because the NAM has half a foot of snow for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some of ya'll need to be realistic on expectations and not look at the poor performing models or Henry Marguisty BS. *Precip intensity is going to determine if it snows or not. *GFS is the exception to the rule (no, the NAM doesn't count). *Screaming east wind off of Atlantic. ...this is not a good scenario for snow east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm just surprised the HPC has a 10-15% chance here of 12 inches of snow. About 35% of 6 inches? Kinda crazy if you as me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm just surprised the HPC has a 10-15% chance here of 12 inches of snow. About 35% of 6 inches? Kinda crazy if you as me. Maybe they are assuming the models will make last minute adjustments north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some of ya'll need to be realistic on expectations and not look at the poor performing models or Henry Marguisty BS. *Precip intensity is going to determine if it snows or not. *GFS is the exception to the rule (no, the NAM doesn't count). *Screaming east wind off of Atlantic. ...this is not a good scenario for snow east of 95. Exactly, snow will not be the issue down here in SJ, but I'm growing increasingly worried about our shore communities in reference to coastal flood/surge issues, and the wind factor in general down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly, snow will not be the issue down here in SJ, but I'm growing increasingly worried about our shore communities in reference to coastal flood/surge issues, and the wind factor in general down here. Given the potential surge+tide at Lewes & Cape May could be 8-9' on Wednesday night/Thursday AM, I would definitely be concerned if I had property at the Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Given the potential surge+tide at Lewes & Cape May could be 8-9' on Wednesday night/Thursday AM, I would definitely be concerned if I had property at the Shore. I've been looking for tidal forecasts but have been unable to find them that far out. 8-9 feet is Sandy-esque levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless of snow or no snow, that roller coaster sitting in the ocean off Seaside might not need to be dismantled after this storm. The wave action will do it. The coastal pounding will be the big story here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless of snow or no snow, that roller coaster sitting in the ocean off Seaside might not need to be dismantled after this storm. The wave action will do it. The coastal pounding will be the big story here. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Um, damn....if that verifies the coast is screwed. I don't live along the coast but have seen the damage personally. This is a death sentence for coastal recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... For majority yes but some people that would be accum snow. Like Paul locale and maybe my work where elev is 500ft or higher. If the gfs was right that would accum something. But I wouldn't expect more than 1-3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems both state college and mt holly aren't discounting a shift north to put the CWA in heavy snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z clown map from IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hpc A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NRNROCKIES/PLAINS TO THE MID-ATL COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER AND HVY SNOW. AFTER MONTHOUGH... THIS FCST BECOMES RATHER UNCERTAIN FROM WI/IA/IL TO THEDELMARVA WITH ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD TO WHERE 100 TO 300 MILESDIFFERENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACT ONSNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PLACES LIKE CHICAGO AND THE DC/BALTIMOREAREA AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON TUES... DIGGING E-SEWD FROMTHE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VLY... A NEW SURFACE LOW WILLLIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE TN/LWR OH VLYS. STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCEALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROF AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW LVLCENTER WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPR DIVERGENCEAFFORDED BY AN UPR JET COUPLET TO PRODUCE A SWATH MDT/HVY SNOWSFROM MN TO NRN AND CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCEBEGINS TO VARY... WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN BEING NRN OUTLIERSAND THE ECMWF/UKMET BEING MORE SRN OUTLYING SOLUTIONS. HPC WENTWITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF... WHICH INCLUDED BOTHGLOBAL MODEL MEANS ON THE HVY SNOWFALL AXIS STRETCHING FROM SERNMN TO NRN IL. AS THE LOWINTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OVER THE SRN MID-ATL STATES. THIS SHOULDGRADUALLY HELP THE SUSPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS EAST OF THEAPPALACHIANS COOL AND BEGIN TO PRODUCE PERHAPS THE LARGESTSNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME IN THE DELMARVA. HOWEVER... THEGUIDANCE SHOWS WIDE SPREAD AND THE CURRENT AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSSTHE REGION IS NOTHING TO GET REAL EXCITED ABOUT... THUS STRONGDYNAMIC COOLING/VERTICAL LIFT WILL BE NEEDED FOR HVY SNOW EAST OFTHE MTNS. HPC FOLLOWED A MAJOR COMPROMISE FOR HVY SNOW PROBS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THENRN GFS AND SRN UKMET... FOR HVY SNOW PROBS OF 8 AND 12 INCHESFROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER IN TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVOREDAPPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA/MD. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It seems both state college and mt holly aren't discounting a shift north to put the CWA in heavy snows Not saying it will happen but they see the possibilty. There's a reason they're the best in the business...they're not drizzle virga flurrie model huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not saying it will happen but they see the possibilty. There's a reason they're the best in the business...they're not drizzle virga flurrie model huggers I agree, but it's strange seeing them hang on when normally they are first to throw the towel. So what's the latest? EURO & GGEM south GFS NAM SREFS JMA- North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I agree, but it's strange seeing them hang on when normally they are first to throw the towel. So what's the latest? EURO & GGEM south GFS NAM SREFS JMA- North ukie is also south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OT- when is the iPhone app for the forums gonna be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OT- when is the iPhone app for the forums gonna be available? Download tap a talk* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ukie is also south.Dare we mention the FIM. It too is north. EDIT... CRAS too is north from its prior runs.Lets all jump the CRAS, it looks just like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Download tap a talk* Came up with push to talk apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is south not a good start to tonight's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM back to the south again. Tonight's runs should have more upper air data in them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a tick south and floods H850 with warm air at h84. It lost the piece of northern vort as well. Take it for was it is, the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 21z sref qpf was similar to previous in our area but the surface and 500 mb low both shifted south a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did NCEP report any initialization errors, or was it a clean run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did NCEP report any initialization errors, or was it a clean run? NOUS42 KWNO 040145 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0144Z MON MAR 04 2013 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED ON TIME. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 72240/LCH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 74494/CHH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 91765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 78970/POS - 10159 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 127-103 MB...TOO COLD 91334/TKK - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 850-809 MB...WET BULB EFFECT HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP It initialized 100 mb temps too cold, but I doubt that helps you. Although I'm not sure what's being referred to by "wet bulb effect" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 040145 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0144Z MON MAR 04 2013 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED ON TIME. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 72240/LCH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 74494/CHH - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10158 72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 91765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142 78970/POS - 10159 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 127-103 MB...TOO COLD 91334/TKK - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 850-809 MB...WET BULB EFFECT HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP It initialized 100 mb temps too cold, but I doubt that helps you. Although I'm not sure what's being referred to by "wet bulb effect" LOL.. yeah, wasn't planning to go to the upper limits of the atmosphere to sample the temperatures. Glad to see that NCEP is on top of it though. Edit: I think it's actually more like 10 miles up, but either way, still not interested in going there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The trend on the NAM is for a colder profile, thus more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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