famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:59 PM, Mitchell Gaines said: Precip starting around sunrise would limit daytime heating prior to the storm Wednesday. On the flip side, a cloudy night beforehand will mean there isn't much if any radiational cooling to start out with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:59 PM, Mitchell Gaines said: Precip starting around sunrise would limit daytime heating prior to the storm Wednesday. If that isn't a snow signal then I don't know what it will take...tired of the storm cancel - it's March mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:05 PM, Weatherguy701 said: If that isn't a snow signal then I don't know what it will take...tired of the storm cancel - it's March mentality. It's not storm cancel but u need to have reasonable expectations. A wind off the ocean and no cold source draining down for the coast is the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:06 PM, Porsche said: Assuming the same out toward LNS too Tom 4-8? Is the sharp cut off due to the block pushing the storm se? IF it doesn't push se and more just w-e would that be better? Thanks In my eyes two reasons for that sharp cutoff. The block and when the low occludes. When it occludes it basically just starts becoming eradic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The low track on the GFS is similar through hour 66...just phases much faster hence the difference thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:07 PM, tombo82685 said: It's not storm cancel but u need to have reasonable expectations. A wind off the ocean and no cold source draining down for the coast is the kiss of death. Some areas get over 1" of QPF in a 3-6 hour period. I would believe you if the low occluded and stalled off the coast, wrapping warm maritime air all the way to the Appalachian mountains. The actual phase is much cleaner and has room for improvement and there are serious dynamics involved with this. Mount Holly did a good write up stating that accumulations should be conservative but any heavy precip would be snow, at least in places not right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:13 PM, Weatherguy701 said: Some areas get over 1" of QPF in a 3-6 hour period. I would believe you if the low occluded and stalled off the coast, wrapping warm maritime air all the way to the Appalachian mountains. The actual phase is much cleaner and has room for improvement and there are serious dynamics involved with this. Mount Holly did a good write up stating that accumulations should be conservative but any heavy precip would be snow, at least in places not right along the coast. Yes I know but before that occurs the east winds for hours on hours just torches your whole bl. It would take some serious adobe ting from a cold source which we don't have to flip the coast to a meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serious question: We had accumulating snow a few weeks ago with temps in the mid 30's, why won't it happen this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:13 PM, Weatherguy701 said: Some areas get over 1" of QPF in a 3-6 hour period. I would believe you if the low occluded and stalled off the coast, wrapping warm maritime air all the way to the Appalachian mountains. The actual phase is much cleaner and has room for improvement and there are serious dynamics involved with this. Mount Holly did a good write up stating that accumulations should be conservative but any heavy precip would be snow, at least in places not right along the coast. I can't get the 0Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) sounding out of Plymouth... but here's what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:17 PM, RowanBrandon said: Serious question: We had accumulating snow a few weeks ago with temps in the mid 30's, why won't it happen this time? What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:15 PM, tombo82685 said: Yes I know but before that occurs the east winds for hours on hours just torches your whole bl. It would take some serious adobe ting from a cold source which we don't have to flip the coast to a meaningful snow. I know it's a crapshoot but any snow in March is a bonus. When I look at inland SNJ, I get very excited for them. Warm air advection is easy to eradicate with dynamic cooling granted you may not get very solid accumulations. It's a wait and see game, a true 33 and rain or 32 and snow esque-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:17 PM, RowanBrandon said: Serious question: We had accumulating snow a few weeks ago with temps in the mid 30's, why won't it happen this time? Remind me when this was, I've forgotten... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, tombo82685 said: What storm? The one Boston got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:22 PM, RowanBrandon said: The one Boston got hammered. It snowed in the mid 30s with that one? I think you may be mis-remembering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, Weatherguy701 said: I know it's a crapshoot but any snow in March is a bonus. When I look at inland SNJ, I get very excited for them. Warm air advection is easy to eradicate with dynamic cooling granted you may not get very solid accumulations. It's a wait and see game, a true 33 and rain or 32 and snow esque-event. It's not WAA because is usually accompanied by southerly winds of some sort. Your issue is the wind direction. You need a more northerly wind component. An east wind is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:20 PM, famartin said: I can't get the 0Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) sounding out of Plymouth... but here's what I can get. I appreciate it, looks like a rain to snow sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, famartin said: It snowed in the mid 30s with that one? I think you may be mis-remembering... I might be? It may not have been that one but it happened at some point this winter, I know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, famartin said: It snowed in the mid 30s with that one? I think you may be mis-remembering... I know my locale it was like 32.9. I guess best example is the storm that occurred two or so weeks ago where Philly snowed at 34-35 but little accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, Weatherguy701 said: I appreciate it, looks like a rain to snow sounding? Looks like all rain maybe a mix at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, tombo82685 said: It's not WAA because is usually accompanied by southerly winds of some sort. Your issue is the wind direction. You need a more northerly wind component. An east wind is not good A large portion of our major snowstorms have a NE wind component, most of the precip comes when the low is east of the area; hence the northerly winds. I think we would be okay if it was early February considering the shallow cold airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:23 PM, Weatherguy701 said: I appreciate it, looks like a rain to snow sounding? The key is the sounding we don't have, 0Z. Its probably going over to snow by 6Z Thursday but by then most of the precip is gone... Based on what I see, I wouldn't hope for much based on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If you get high VVs (like the November snowstorm in NJ) you can overcome boundary layers IMO, but if we get moderate precip on the outter edge nothing will accumulate. We would need another budge NW from the 18z GFS OP, and that is hard considering the 18z GFS right now is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:27 PM, Highzenberg said: If you get high VVs (like the November snowstorm in NJ) you can overcome boundary layers IMO, but if we get moderate precip on the outter edge nothing will accumulate. We would need another budge NW from the 18z GFS OP, and that is hard considering the 18z GFS right now is an outlier. The soundings for the November event were clearly colder than what they show for Cape May right now. There wasn't nearly as much mild BL air to overcome in November as there appears to be there with this upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:28 PM, famartin said: The soundings for the November event were clearly colder than what they show for Cape May right now. There wasn't nearly as much mild BL air to overcome in November as there appears to be there with this upcoming storm. That is probably due to the constant east wind from this storm and lack of cold air supply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lets just keep everything in perspective here. Ukie euro and ggem are pretty much nothing. The gfs has been pretty bad in all major storms. Until other guidance joins in on the gfs synoptic setup I would just push it to the back but still keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Certain people in this thread to need to remember that snow doesn't stick to surfaces that are 35 F, no mater how many ways they rationalize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:50 PM, tombo82685 said: Lets just keep everything in perspective here. Ukie euro and ggem are pretty much nothing. The gfs has been pretty bad in all major storms. Until other guidance joins in on the gfs synoptic setup I would just push it to the back but still keep an eye on it. The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:53 PM, Thunder Road said: The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... 1.) Seasonal snowfall total is 6.0" down here 2.) Models underestimate dynamic cooling. If I recall, the GFS was only printing out 6-12" for coastal NJ during Feburary 5-6th, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 10:53 PM, Thunder Road said: The GFS shows a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. The UKMET, GGEM, and Euro all show essentially no precip up here. Can you explain why people are excited? Because I really can't figure it out... Ever since that one or two runs of the EC from way back in the middle of last week that showed a snow bomb, the monger train has been all-board. Its funny how everyone jumped aboard with that EC run, but even though every EC runs since those 1 or 2 have shown much less or nothing, the excitement remains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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