Capt. Adam Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro, GFS, GGEM all honking. Final solution TBD, but clearly a legit threat for high winds at the coast and snow inland at 5 days. Need to pull in northern stream energy to help with a colder solution. Let's see what the Euro does this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 solely going off 850s, it would be snow from i95 north 850's would fool you on the GFS... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 850's would fool you on the GFS... just sayin' yes i know, i can't see soundings on ggem. The ggem does wrap in the northern stream which helps give it that colder look which the gfs doesn't I would bet though that there is some bl issues...but up towards the lv and far nw burbs would be fine with 850s around -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 With thos VVs Ray don't you think boundary layer would be overcome? The GGEM also shows a similar 500mb pattern to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12Z GFS only partially phased in the northern stream energy. We need that to phase a bit more for a colder solution for the coastal plain. The CMC appears to do this. Still a lot of time to go and I am expecting a bit more waffling of the low track like the ukie did this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 ukie is further south - near Cape Hatteras at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anyone doing a Euro pbp for old time's sake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 850's would fool you on the GFS... just sayin' also i95 runs north south maybe he meant 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 @ 84 hours, SW is slightly slower, and canadian maritime low is slightly further N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12Z GFS ENS much colder further off the coast snow for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 96, little more northern stream over top the lakes, 1012 lp over tn/MS/AL area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 With thos VVs Ray don't you think boundary layer would be overcome? Well remember, there are multiple forcings working here, one of them being low level warm advection. In the 1997 April Fool's Day storm, it was a heavy mixture of rain and snow at BOS from 11AM to 9PM. Over an inch of precip fell before it finally switched over (of course, once it did it piled up fast)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Tom/Bri/any of the mets: When will flights sampling the PAC upper levels be ingested into the model runs? I saw NCEP was sending out recon flights. Do you expect major deviations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 full phase, more northern stream interaction from the getgo... nukes from 120-126.. stand by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 doesn't nuke.. disregard.. captured, but stays 1000mb @ 132... closed off 3 contour ULL over top the SLP... CVA -SNJ hit pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM331974 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow, you guys are great! Just moved here from Fl.This is my first winter here in Philadelphia, and you guys chase these winter storms like they chase hurricanes in Fl. Hopefully this will be my first snowstorm.. Thanks for all your hard work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 TTN south qpf is .75", increasing as you head south.. 2" touches cape may county.... havent looked at thermals yet... but a lot comes from the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodriveslow2 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow, you guys are great! Just moved here from Fl.This is my first winter here in Philadelphia, and you guys chase these winter storms like they chase hurricanes in Fl. Hopefully this will be my first snowstorm.. Thanks for all your hard work... Welcome to the board. When you get a chance add your location to your profile. Hope your first one is a doozy next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow, you guys are great! Just moved here from Fl.This is my first winter here in Philadelphia, and you guys chase these winter storms like they chase hurricanes in Fl. Hopefully this will be my first snowstorm.. Thanks for all your hard work... Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How far west is the precip? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Interested to hear what euro ens do with northern extent of sig precip later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just looking at e-wall, Euro is a little further S than 00z and colder than GFS. Stalls near Cape Hatteras for 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How far west is the precip? Thanks Mason/dixon line south from WV/MD border points east .75".. greneral .25-.5 for most of pa.. 850's and thicknesses look OK enough, but the surface temps jump into the 40's @ 126 from SNJ into SE PA... crashing back dow =n next 2 frames, but as the precip is leaving... tight gradients For The Headache.. Anyhow, still some differences between the EURO and GFS and their handling of the streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 So the concensus is there that this is going to be a beast for 'someone'. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 850's would fool you on the GFS... just sayin' He was referring to the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 He was referring to the GGEM Yes I know, but the point is you can't just look at 850's with the BL issues which are often a problem this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow, you guys are great! Just moved here from Fl.This is my first winter here in Philadelphia, and you guys chase these winter storms like they chase hurricanes in Fl. Hopefully this will be my first snowstorm.. Thanks for all your hard work... Welcome, you can learn a lot just by reading what our pros and experts write on here, sit back and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is why I never post in this forum, the southern part of this forum needs to be merged with the Mid-Atlantic forum and the northern part with NYC Area. There are just not enough active posters around. Why are you here now, then? I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why are you here now, then? I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ what he said!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I do find it interesting that this thread is a ghost town compared to the one in the dc forum...... More levelheadedness with less weenie outbursts in this forum cuts down on the post number dramatically It's hard to comment on snow chances since the slightest of shifts could make it either a lot more rain or a lot less QPF. Models are starting to converge on an impactful solution that is mostly concentrated over the DC area, with PHL dealing with a greater likelihood of low-level temp issues if the better precip rates don't make it far enough north. Until the run-to-run consistency is there, it's tough to really speculate about any of these details. The takeaway from the 12z suite is that odds are increasing but there's still a ways to go, so details can wait. Why are you here now, then? The Mid-Atlanticers don't want him, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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