Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Better start on a rough draft for that rant. My guess is if it shifts south it will be less of a storm anyways.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If when the upper system first gets sampled tonight by the raob network it's as strong as has been modeled, I'd favor a track that doesn't miss Chicago to the south because the ridging induced ahead of the system would be enough to keep it farther north, despite the strong west based block in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I am not going to post on this board in general due to being wrong about the euro in the last system, but just wanted to note that the mu win rule could be in effect with this system though not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Better start on a rough draft for that rant. lol LOL its march you know it is in the back of your mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 LOL its march you know it is in the back of your mind.... lol part was to it going south and it being "less of a storm". Not sure why you're thinking that. There's been plenty of March snowstorms in the "south", in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That is also true. It ended up a bit farther north, but was still decent. Nonetheless...Even with the tick north, the NAM/ECMWF combo was the way to go. Alek's favorite model the GFS did terrible with the storm except in his backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I am not going to post on this board in general due to being wrong about the euro in the last system, but just wanted to note that the mu win rule could be in effect with this system though not likely. KTHXBYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Better start on a rough draft for that rant. lol, I'm not saying you will be wrong but your post was kinda weenieish. Certainly reasons to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs get .5 from laf-alek-Naperville. Pretty wet for central il and eastern Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol, I'm not saying you will be wrong but your post was kinda weenieish. Certainly reasons to be concerned. The "north trend always wins" was weenie-ish. Have to chuck a few now and then. But, I've been touting north all along (at least north of here), with some reasoning. Maybe I bust, who knows...but I'll ride it until proved otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol part was to it going south and it being "less of a storm". Not sure why you're thinking that. There's been plenty of March snowstorms in the "south", in the past. Was more of an imby weenie post by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Perfect spot for the 18z GFS. This is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's nice to be away from tracking weather for a few days and see another event coming together. Took me by surprise! March is the new December in Chicago I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am not going to post on this board in general due to being wrong about the euro in the last system, but just wanted to note that the mu win rule could be in effect with this system though not likely. dude, seriously.... it was a weenie bet and you got burnt. if anyone really expects you to stop posting because of it, they can suck your ****. you're posting, so you already renigged on your bet anyway... just post and don't make stupid bets again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 North wins, always, based on perspective...as a geographer, it is all relative, regardless of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 1. runs out of gas when it gets to IN 2. trends north = warm air = rain/zr/ip modis oprandi this year Bumped and fixed from page 1 to back up Tim. RC's reasoning below is sound. EDIT: Could be more of the same ol' same ol' for the IN crew. Indystorm might fare well though. If when the upper system first gets sampled tonight by the raob network it's as strong as has been modeled, I'd favor a track that doesn't miss Chicago to the south because the ridging induced ahead of the system would be enough to keep it farther north, despite the strong west based block in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 dude, seriously.... it was a weenie bet and you got burnt. if anyone really expects you to stop posting because of it, they can suck your ****. you're posting, so you already renigged on your bet anyway... just post and don't make stupid bets again. Great points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Earlier, Chicagowx posted how the #1 CIPS analog for this event based on the 12z GFS was the March 12-14, 1991 storm. The general similarities are apparent but there are some obvious differences as well, one of which is that the 500 mb low with this event is not progged to open up like 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Michiana might do well if the storm trajectory is east rather than nw to se and if the WAA wing performs fairly well up here. It would be nice to get a good snow that will melt by the weekend with the advertised warmth that is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Earlier, Chicagowx posted how the #1 CIPS analog for this event based on the 12z GFS was the March 12-14, 1991 storm. The general similarities are apparent but there are some obvious differences as well, one of which is that the 500 mb low with this event is not progged to open up like 1991. That storm had a pretty wide area of 1"+ precipitation totals too. Not seeing that with this system...yet. Nice gradient in LOT's CWA though...from Geos down to Newton and Benton counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Michiana might do well if the storm trajectory is east rather than nw to se and if the WAA wing performs fairly well up here. It would be nice to get a good snow that will melt by the weekend with the advertised warmth that is coming. Yeah, I mentioned that earlier. Could a nice snow for people who like to see the storm, but not so good for those like snow cover stat padding. A little Josh troll there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd be more than happy to see 6" of stat padding snow. Giddy really. We're running behind climo in that regard in the LAF. 5 years and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Feeling this one for LAF. EURO looks like quite the spanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Don't know if this was posted yet...from LOT: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSSTHE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WITH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS AREPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z NAM with more ridging out in front, at 42 hours. A lot warmer in IL and IN. This run will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 First run with decent sampling, so we'll see what changes there are. Given how bad guidance has been pre-sampling this season, a sig change wouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Plain rain for LAF at 54 hours. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Snow breaks out in N IL by 9 pm Monday. Center of the band will be right overhead I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Mixing up to the Kankakee River/I-80 area on this run. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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