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March 4-6 Winter Storm

snowlover2

By snowlover2,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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ILSNOW

ILSNOW

Posted
Posted

KLOT

 

AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...AM GETTING A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WHICH WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO MONITOR OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS STARTED TO
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT AMONG VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT
ISSUES...CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR A STRONG SYSTEM TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY BRING PRECIP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH SLIGHT WARMING...A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH...REALLY NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF ANY
ACCUMULATION THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY WITH RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS
IN PLACE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. DO EXPECT
ALL SNOW FOR THIS INITIAL TIME FRAME WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT RAPIDLY
COOLING THE TEMP PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE
INCREASES...AND REALLY GETS GOING ON TUESDAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND THE CWA LIKELY OBSERVES PERIODS OF
PERSISTENT WAA...WITH LIKELY AREAS OF DEFORMATION TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE CWA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND IS SEEN WITH THE
QPF THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A VALID
SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME...MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IS PROBABLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE
MONITORED WITH SUCCESSIVE FORECASTS AS GUIDANCE COULD CONTINUE TO
VARY. NONETHELESS...IT IS APPEARING THAT THE REGION AND A PORTION
OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA COULD
OBSERVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OF THE
EVENT AND POSSIBLE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

RODRIGUEZ

 

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

18z NAM text output for LAF...lol. 

03/05 06Z   32     31      94      14    0.07  0.00    541    550    1.9 -21.0 1011 100 -RA   010OVC227    0.0    6.2
03/05 09Z   32     31      91      13    0.09  0.00    542    549    2.8 -21.4 1008 100 -RA   011OVC238    0.0    6.8
03/05 12Z   32     31      95      11    0.10  0.00    541    547    1.9 -22.2 1007 100 -RA   008OVC192    0.0    4.5
03/05 15Z   33     32     101       5    0.13  0.00    539    545   -1.6 -22.9 1007 100 SN    007OVC233    1.4    0.8
03/05 18Z   33     32       8       4    0.21  0.00    535    540   -4.4 -24.1 1006 100 -SN   007OVC239    2.1    2.7
03/05 21Z   33     30     347       9    0.03  0.00    531    537   -7.2 -26.0 1007 100 -SN   008OVC193    0.3    4.8

Yep. Looks about right.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

A snowfall like the last one is quite rare, so it made the measuring quite tricky. That is definitely true about the measuring times. However...say you cleared the board at 1pm, and then 3 more hours of snow dropped 1.5" when the snow let up at 4pm but if you waited til 7pm (after 3 hours of no snow) and the snow had settled to 1.3". You would not have to wait til 7pm, if you are sure the snow is done at 4pm you could report then.

 

 

It's all tied to GMT synoptic hours (12z, 18z, 00z, 06z), so in CST, you measure at 6am, 12pm, 6pm, and 12am, but you're right about EST. On the second point, you're actually supposed to measure when the snow stops and not wait until the synoptic hour. You're only supposed to wait until the synoptic hour while it's still snowing, to account for compaction. The ORD measurement was good for the last event, best we could tell. It was lower by a bit over an inch than CoCoRaHS reports close by in Elk Grove Village. It's a double-edged sword with snowfall measurements for the WFO's because obviously there's a right way to do measurements, but if everyone did it that way, we wouldn't know how much snow was falling real time for purposes of verifying warnings or needing to upgrade advisories to warnings.

 

The other point is that the measurements that are done more frequently than synoptic hours are probably a bit inflated, but on the other hand, the other measurements we rely on, from COOPs, are not any better, and likely underdone because other than the Midway 3SW COOP, they're only measuring and clearing the board every 24 hours. 

 

 

Thanks for the input. I actually knew about measuring at the end of synoptic event, but failed to post it. And yes, I was talking EST. I am a CoCoRaHS reporter, but I try to measure on the synoptic hour and when the snow is done, then add them together for my 7 AM report. However, CoCoRaHS asks you to only measure once a day. Having access to NWSChat, I usually keep IWX informed of local amounts/rates real time when warranted.

 

This discussion once again brings up how subjective measuring is and unless a measurement sounds really out of line, I just use it to give a general idea of snowfall in a particular location.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

IND AFD said they would have been tempted to issue a Watch, if it weren't for the warm trend on the 12z models. Outright rain prospects increasing.

 

Anyway, my thoughts haven't changed. Earlier weaker/too far SW modeled blocking combined with phasing...MN, IA, S WI, N IL, N IN, S MI, and OH look to do well.    

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Wherever the WAA wing snows and the eventual deform/trowel pivot will likely get dumped on in a big way.  Models will probably have a tough time pinning down where that jackpot will end up, but widespread moderate snows at the least look likely.  Feeling pretty good about prospects for the QC at this point.  If I were to guess the jackpot pivot point winner, I'd go with a triangle including Dubuque, Madison, and La Crosse.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'd rather be farther north for this one, like in IKK or maybe even Chicago. It would require a solid southward shift to not flirt with the southern edge of the heavy snow amounts here so plenty of anxious model runs to come.

 

Yep. Those sitting on the southern edge (LAF, etc) better make alternate plans.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

I'd rather be farther north for this one, like in IKK or maybe even Chicago. It would require a solid southward shift to not flirt with the southern edge of the heavy snow amounts here so plenty of anxious model runs to come.

 

 

Chicago definitely could end up being in that max zone.  Early call for Chicago is 6-10, 14-19" for Geos! :snowing:

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Geos-

 

If I see a foot from this, I'll poop my pants...

 

NWS has this up...probably closer to reality

 

Lol, You're really close to the edge of the biggest amounts. Confident in advisory snows here.

 

Where were these storms in January!?

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Chicago definitely could end up being in that max zone.  Early call for Chicago is 6-10, 14-19" for Geos! :snowing:

 

Lol. Well I've been lucky so far...

 

GFS comparisons.

Alek is still on the 3" line, but the system pivots in a different spot.

 

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Looking at LOT's snow map it did terrible around Joliet and environs as well.  It only did well for the northern tier and far west exurbs

That is also true. It ended up a bit farther north, but was still decent. Nonetheless...Even with the tick north, the NAM/ECMWF combo was the way to go.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

I like where I am sitting at this point. Minor shifts either way won't ruin the day for me.

 

Yeah I don't think you're gonna miss this one!

 

This is a lock for Hawkeye, Cyclone and T-snow I would say too.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

:lmao:

It gonna rain in the LAF.

Good luck up north though. Kinda liking this one for appreciable amounts.

I think it's more likely that we would get tortured with some kind of icy mix rather than rain. There are uncertainties with how warm it will be aloft but the low level easterly flow (similar to the last event) should make warming up at the surface a difficult proposition.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I think it's more likely that we would get tortured with some kind of icy mix rather than rain. There are uncertainties with how warm it will be aloft but the low level easterly flow (similar to the last event) should make warming up at the surface a difficult proposition.

 

Fair enough, I'll give you that. But chances are pretty high this isn't a snow event here. Mix at best, but I'll leave in plain rain as a possibility. North trend always wins. 

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