Harry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verification scores would argue otherwise but I don't think anyone is buying it verbatim. Thing is they are very misleading. Reason i say that is because while yes they have done better AT 500MB ( global pattern overall ) i am 99.9% certain that is not the case with individual events aka storms. Unfortunately they do not keep tabs on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thing is they are very misleading. Reason i say that is because while yes they have done better AT 500MB ( global pattern overall ) i am 99.9% certain that is not the case with individual events aka storms. Unfortunately they do not keep tabs on that. Nobody's buying the UK version of this event. Just dreaming, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0z GGEM looks hittable for LAF. Down with the USA! Bad model though. No, it's probably right, the trend has been south I must say. Worried about the Euro coming back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, it's probably right, the trend has been south I must say. Worried about the Euro coming back south. You're back on track. MKE good to go. Enjoy guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You're back on track. MKE good to go. Enjoy guys. lol He'll never change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thing is they are very misleading. Reason i say that is because while yes they have done better AT 500MB ( global pattern overall ) i am 99.9% certain that is not the case with individual events aka storms. Unfortunately they do not keep tabs on that. Well, I think it is not good with qpf but I'd have to double check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like Lake County Ill could get it's 3rd 10+ incher within a 30 day period I can't remember if that's ever happened here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nobody's buying the UK version of this event. Just dreaming, nothing more. Oh i know. Just seems that many over look that fact where those model verification scores are concerned. For most of us what matters is the event not the overall 500mb pattern of NA and or the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol He'll never change.. So you're telling me to ignore the 18 and 0z RGEM, the 12z Euro, and the recent UKIE runs (which all show 0.25"QPF or less)? I might be best to compromise these models with the 6-9" of the GFS and NAM. So, in essence, I'll go with 3-6" for my first call. Chicago Wx deserves snow right more than Milwaukee anyway, so I'll spare a couple of extra inches for his sake anyway. Just hope this is not a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So you're telling me to ignore the 18 and 0z RGEM, the 12z Euro, and the recent UKIE runs (which all show 0.25"QPF or less)? I might be best to compromise these models with the 6-9" of the GFS and NAM. So, in essence, I'll go with 3-6" for my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't remember if that's ever happened here. Probably: December 31, 1978 - January 1, 1979.....January 12-13, 1979 and January 23-24, 1979 did, but you are too young too remember that....I'm not though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 x1,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So you're telling me to ignore the 18 and 0z RGEM, the 12z Euro, and the recent UKIE runs (which all show 0.25"QPF or less)? I might be best to compromise these models with the 6-9" of the GFS and NAM. So, in essence, I'll go with 3-6" for my first call. Chicago Wx deserves snow right more than Milwaukee anyway, so I'll spare a couple of extra inches for his sake anyway. Just hope this is not a total bust. Probably a good call, actually. The trend cannot be denied. I'd go with 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't remember if that's ever happened here. Probably: December 31, 1978 - January 1, 1979.....January 12-13, 1979 and January 23-24, 1979 did, but you are too young too remember that....I'm not though 2/7-9/1994, 2/22-23/1994, 2/25-26/1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00z GFS ensembles have for the moment stopped the bleeding in this area/along the northern end atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hard to ignore the cuts in QPF by the models for MI locations. Otherwise, bumped a few...and stood pat on the others. We'll let this marinate overnight. Final tomorrow afternoon. DBQ: 7-9" DTW: 1-3" FWA: 3-5" GRR: 2-4" LSE: 7-9" MDW: 4-6" MKE: 7-9" MKG: 1-3" MLI: 5-7" MSN: 6-8" ORD: 6-8" RFD: 6-8" SBN: 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gonna tighten up my previous calls of 4-8" to 6-8" for here and the QC. Really liking this system. Really wouldn't be surprised to break the 10" mark, but definitely don't expect that. I've been on the LAF snow train from the beginning, and still am. I still think they're good for a nice 3-6" snow, and possibly more if the storm wraps up even quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2/7-9/1994, 2/22-23/1994, 2/25-26/1994. Yep! I remember those too! I know February of 1974 was also a very snowy month. Not sure if there were three 10 inch snowfalls that month though. Sorry to go off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...MADISON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA844 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MONDAY EVENING BUT BECOME HEAVIER LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL VARY...BUT COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39584-march-4-6-winter-storm-pt-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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