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March 4-6 Winter Storm

snowlover2

By snowlover2,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Dvn with some sort of crazy advisory/watch hybrid

 

They went with adv for tonight/tomorrow morning precip, and same areas covered by watch.  Their watch details forecast 4-12" in the entire watch area lol.  Broad brush city.  Still like 4-8" for this whole area.  More specifically leaning towards 6-8" at this point.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Sampling of the 15z SREF plumes snowfall. Again, I'd error an inch or two lower on the mean snowfall based off prior events.

 

BTL

mean: 9.9"

high: 15.2"

low: 3.1"

 

DTW

mean: 6.9"

high: 11.3"

low: 0.3"

 

DVN

mean: 5.5"

high: 8.4"

low: 1.7"

 

FWA

mean: 7.8"

high: 16.0"

low: 2.7"

 

IKK

mean: 5.1"

high: 11.3"

low: 2.2"

 

LAF

mean: 4.0"

high: 11.5"

low: 1.6"

 

LSE

mean: 11.3"

high: 16.7"

low: 5.8"

 

MKE

mean: 10.5"

high: 14.4"

low: 5.8"

 

OKK

mean: 5.3"

high: 13.8"

low: 1.7"

 

ORD

mean: 9.6"

high: 16.1"

low: 3.9"

 

UGN

mean: 10.3"

high: 14.6"

low: 4.9"

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

I kinda like your area, to be honest. Bumps north aren't hurting your cause.

 

The precip shield has been eroding though around here/along the n/ne side. 18z NAM  was a step back here. They all seem to be zeroing in on areas between here and there and or close to the state line. I just don't see my backyard being in the jackpot/higher end zone. I think it will be to the west and south of here. Ofcourse with how this winter has gone with decent events finding ways to miss here i am a bit on the more pessimistic side. Thus in the wanna see it to believe it mode. lol

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

The precip shield has been eroding though around here/along the n/ne side. 18z NAM  was a step back here. They all seem to be zeroing in on areas between here and there and or close to the state line. I just don't see my backyard being in the jackpot/higher end zone. I think it will be to the west and south of here. Ofcourse with how this winter has gone with decent events finding ways to miss here i am a bit on the more pessimistic side. Thus in the wanna see it to believe it mode. lol

 

Certainly seems the models want to have a sharper cut off in MI, so I'll give you that. You may not jackpot, but I think you'll do just fine. If the late north trend materializes, from the current set of runs, then you're really in business. Good luck. :)

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TimChgo9

TimChgo9

Posted
Posted

Definitely looks like a big one coming this way.

 

Doesn't look like we have to worry much about any kind of mixing issues.  So, if it's going to be all snow, I think 6 or 7 inches is definitely doable with this one. Hopefully it's not as heavy as the last snow we got.....

 

WSW issued, if anyone hasn't noticed for the LOT CWA.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Certainly seems the models want to have a sharper cut off in MI, so I'll give you that. You may not jackpot, but I think you'll do just fine. If the late north trend materializes, from the current set of runs, then you're really in business. Good luck. :)

 

I am right on the line too. I am a bit nervous with this one, but it seems that this area is far enough west to atleast get a couple inches...unless the EURO track is correct.

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CIWeather

CIWeather

Posted
Posted 
ILX likes the GFS, at least for Monday night.

 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL IL. AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THIS SHOULD RESULT TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CANTON-LINCOLN-DECATUR BY LATE MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH ALONG I-74 AND CLOSE TO AN INCH FARTHER NORTH TOWARD TOULON AND HENRY. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ALBERTA TRACKS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND WHERE THE SNOW-MIX-RAIN LINES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF SNOW NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE-LINCOLN-PARIS LINE MONDAY NIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL IL THIS LINE WILL SHIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND I-57 AND EAST RESULTING IN A MIX OF PRECIP FROM TAYLORVILLE-CMI-DNV. TEMPERATURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST IL. DID NOT CHANGE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY 2-4" BETWEEN I-70 AND I-74 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AMOUNTS IN THE 4-6" RANGE NORTH OF I-74. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WILL FAIRLY SHORT SOUTH OF I-70...SO MAINLY AM EXPECTING AROUND 0.5-1.5 INCHES.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Certainly seems the models want to have a sharper cut off in MI, so I'll give you that. You may not jackpot, but I think you'll do just fine. If the late north trend materializes, from the current set of runs, then you're really in business. Good luck. :)

 

I am not writing off a north trend for sure. History with these kinds of systems says why. Even though the euro has crapped the bed a bit more often recently i am still not comfortable with it showing what it does. Good luck there as well.

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