March 4-6 Winter Storm

[LizardMafia]

I think this winter is getting to me...you know, the prospect of missing out on another big snow event.

It probably makes sense to go more conservative than the Euro but by how much is the question.

1-2" lets start there..

 

Latest Point Forecast does seem promising for LAF.. Moderate Snow Accumulations..

 

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN LIGHT FREEZINGRAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONEQUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT..TUESDAY...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN UNTILMIDDAY...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOWACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPHSHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT.

[MidwestChaser]

Watch out for LOT.

[MidwestChaser]

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...   DEKALB...OTTAWA   311 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013  

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  

TUESDAY EVENING...  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM  

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  

EVENING.  

 

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL MONDAY WITH LIGHT  

ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW WILL ARRIVE  

MONDAY EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH  

TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND  

AFTERNOON.  

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  

 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES FROM EARLY  

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION RATES OF  

1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAKING SNOW  

REMOVAL DIFFICULT AND TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT  

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.  

[Chicago WX]

I think this winter is getting to me...you know, the prospect of missing out on another big snow event.

It probably makes sense to go more conservative than the Euro but by how much is the question.

 

I've lost it, truthfully.

 

But the Euro is on its own...and it hasn't been very good at times this winter. I'm firmly planting my flag with the consensus. And you know where that gets us...

[A-L-E-K]

Aleks 3-6 is still looking good.

 

 

good call...i'd favor the lower end but it's hard to ignore the GFS

[Thundersnow12]

I still think the NAM comes a bit further south. Anyways, off to Portillos.

[MidwestChaser]

good call...i'd favor the lower end but it's hard to ignore the GFS

 

C'mon..lock in a trace. You know you want to. 

[michsnowfreak]

lol even different nws's are favoring different models.

[A-L-E-K]

It wouldn't be a decent system without DVN throwing out their usual "The wave is stronger, the jet is stronger, etc" nonsense.

 

 

so true

[cyclone77]

4km NAM took another step south at 18z.  Much wetter for the QC compared to the previous two runs.  This has the potential to be our first 6" storm since GHD.  (Last one was 5.7").

[A-L-E-K]

C'mon..lock in a trace. You know you want to. 

 

 

 

nah...my calls have done well this year, especially IMBY. I know what i'm doing but this is no trace event.  I'd go 2-4" for the city, 5-10" northern tier.

[A-L-E-K]

lol even different nws's are favoring different models.

 

 

DVN almost always favors the model that gives them the most weenie solution.

[mimillman]

This will be Chicago's event of the winter.

[ILSNOW]

so true

Surprised your not punting!!!

[MidwestChaser]

nah...my calls have done well this year, especially IMBY. I know what i'm doing but this is no trace event.  I'd go 2-4" for the city, 5-10" northern tier.

 

Last Tuesday was so all rain, wasn't it?   

[IWXwx]

lol even different nws's are favoring different models.

 

Yep DVN going with foreign models, IND going with GFS/NAM. Haven't had a chance to check out other discos yet.

[afterimage]

Nice read from IWX, looks good:

 

 

LONG TERM   /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/    FOCUS OF FORECAST REMAINS ON WINTER PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNTS   DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.    ALL IN ALL MODELS NOT VERY DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF UPPER LOW LOCATION   AT 12Z TUES WITH FEATURES SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF W IOWA WITH MODELS   DIVERGING IN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BY 6Z WEDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN   CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE. SURGE OF WARM AIR IN LOW   LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RAISE HAVOC WITH PTYPE AT THE START   OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR   POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE COLDER AIR   ARRIVES AND PRECIP SWITCHES TO ALL SNOW. DID INCREASE POPS TO   CATEGORICAL SW TUES MORNING AND ALL AREAS BY TUES AFTERNOON WITH ALL   SIGNS CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS EVERYONE SEEING AT LEAST A PERIOD   OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE INTRODUCED SLEET INTO   SOUTHERN AREAS TUES MORNING. BY FAR THE BEST FORCING AND AT LEAST A   PORTION OF DGZ INTERACTION TAKES PLACE TUES AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY   EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS POINT ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW AND   COULD BE FALLING AT A DECENT CLIP. SFC TEMPS MAY STILL BE AROUND   FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT IMPACTS INITIALLY BUT   EVENTUALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL SETTLE IN.   ECMWF REMAINS MOST SOUTHERLY SOLUTION COMPARES TO GEFS/GFS/NAM/SREF   WITH THESE ALL LINGERING PRECIP WELL INTO TUES NGT AND EVEN FIRST   PART OF WEDS. PREV FORECAST AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A   GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH   TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE PRESENTLY IN SW AREAS WHERE   FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED THE LONGEST. HOWEVER THESE SAME AREAS   COULD SEE REDUCED SNOW ACCUMS...BEING REPLACED BY SLEET OR EVEN   FREEZING RAIN. AFTER IN HOUSE AND SURROUNDING OFFICE   COORDINATION...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH AND WILL ISSUE   SPS TO HIGHLIGHT MULTIPLE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTY OF FORECAST.  

[michsnowfreak]

Yep DVN going with foreign models, IND going with GFS/NAM. Haven't had a chance to check out other discos yet.

I actually like DTX's discussion, as they pretty much laid out the different model solutions and said to stay tuned, rather than favor one.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Yep DVN going with foreign models, IND going with GFS/NAM. Haven't had a chance to check out other discos yet.

According to LOT's disco, they rode the GFS

[cyclone77]

14" lolli for Geos.  Would really make for an amazing stretch if this pans out. 

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/geossssss.jpg/'>

 

[A-L-E-K]

Last Tuesday was so all rain, wasn't it?

my call wasn't all rain and it was mostly rain in the city. I was about an inch off on my ord call. I did very well imby as usual

[RCNYILWX]

nah...my calls have done well this year, especially IMBY. I know what i'm doing but this is no trace event.  I'd go 2-4" for the city, 5-10" northern tier.

You have made good calls this winter, but I think you're low-balling this one for Chicago. Much colder thermal profiles and a signal for more than just lake-land friction convergence driven lake enhancement. 

[Harry Perry]

IWX is calling for 6-9" from I-80 south... Sounds like they are hugging the EURO.

[IWXwx]

Nice read from IWX, looks good:

 

 

 

Yeah, it looks like they're taking a middle of the road approach, but leaning toward the American models, which gives us (and more so you) a few hours of zr and the dreaded IP Tuesday morning, then finishing with a bang.

 

Just like the last system, and we all know what happened there. Seriously, I have more confidence of measurable snow this go around.

[michsnowfreak]

You have made good calls this winter, but I think you're low-balling this one for Chicago. Much colder thermal profiles and a signal for more than just lake-land friction convergence driven lake enhancement. 

Chicago had a historically futile first half of winter. But whats done is done. Every snowfall bee-lining around Chicago stopped last month, and they are one of the safest locations for this event, no matter which model camp you choose. Its not going to be the waterlogged slush of last time. No way does ORD see less than 5".

[IWXwx]

IWX is calling for 6-9" from I-80 south... Sounds like they are hugging the EURO.

 

Where do you see IWX calling for 6-9? I know that a met on chat mentioned that the models are showing 6-9 south of I 80 (Euro), but their forecast is for 3-6.

 

EDIT: "The models are showing between 6-9 inches of snow from I80 south, but the models have a tendency to overestimate."

[A-L-E-K]

You have made good calls this winter, but I think you're low-balling this one for Chicago. Much colder thermal profiles and a signal for more than just lake-land friction convergence driven lake enhancement. 

 

 

I've done a good deal of trolling in this thread...certainly looks like our best shot all winter but there is plenty of time and i'm jaded for sure.

[ILSNOW]

LOT likes the GFS

 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR WINTER STORM
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOMEWHERE NEAR STL BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO
THE 12 UTC GFS...AS ITS TRACK AND POSITION OF THE 500 MB VORTEX IS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A BETTER CLUSTERING JUST NORTH OF THE NON NCEP MODELS.

AND

 

NORTHERN ILLINOIS LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW...AND STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOME VERY GOOD
SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY SETS UP IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF
THE LAKE. THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWER LEVELS APPEAR TO BE COOL
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
THE LAKE. THUS AREAS NEAR THE LAKE COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 1.5 INCHES PER HOURS AT TIMES DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS ONLY MODERATE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK CONCERNS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE UPWARDS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...I FELT THAT A WATCH IS JUSTIFIED...AS HEAVY SNOW DOES
LOOK TO BE A DECENT BET IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

KJB
 

[afterimage]

Yeah, it looks like they're taking a middle of the road approach, but leaning toward the American models, which gives us (and more so you) a few hours of zr and the dreaded IP Tuesday morning, then finishing with a bang.

 

Just like the last system, and we all know what happened there. Seriously, I have more confidence of measurable snow this go around.

Agreed, all the way around with what you said.

[mimillman]

LOT likes the GFS

 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR WINTER STORM

CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR

THIS STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND

EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOMEWHERE NEAR STL BY LATE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY

NIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO

THE 12 UTC GFS...AS ITS TRACK AND POSITION OF THE 500 MB VORTEX IS

CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLES

INDICATE A BETTER CLUSTERING JUST NORTH OF THE NON NCEP MODELS.

AND

 

NORTHERN ILLINOIS LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW...AND STRONG FORCING FOR

ASCENT FROM THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOME VERY GOOD

SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SETS

UP ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS

TIME AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY SETS UP IN

THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS

HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST

ILLINOIS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT

AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF

THE LAKE. THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWER LEVELS APPEAR TO BE COOL

ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER

THE LAKE. THUS AREAS NEAR THE LAKE COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST

TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SNOWFALL

RATES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 1.5 INCHES PER HOURS AT TIMES DURING THE

HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS ONLY MODERATE

AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK CONCERNS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE

POTENTIAL TO SEE UPWARDS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN

ILLINOIS...I FELT THAT A WATCH IS JUSTIFIED...AS HEAVY SNOW DOES

LOOK TO BE A DECENT BET IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

KJB

 

I still think ignoring the NAM is not the most prudent move...even though it is a terrible model.