IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Time to bail on the Euro. It's clearly out to lunch with this one. Bail on a model that gives me 6"? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Weird looking IKK screw zone that run. Tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 MKX hoisted more winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Only real notable thing on the 18z NAM is it shaved the northern edges of the QPF area. GRB back to flurries, after the 12z run was 2-5". And a more noticeable reduction in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 MKE grabbing the NAM by the horns this go around.. Too Bullish IMO, but I'm like cyclone and am a down player most of the time until there is no reason to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Time to bail on the Euro. It's clearly out to lunch with this one. You know it's bad when even you start to annoy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think I'm gonna wait until the 00z runs before I get excited but definitely liking the trends. Looks like NAM has halted it's north trend and shifted back south a tad so i'm guessing we'll start to see some better consensus among the models tonight. you're in a great spot as usual this winter... gl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bail on a model that gives me 6"? lol It's going to fail miserably...for here anyway. Still looking good up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You know it's bad when even you start to annoy me. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BECOME HEAVIER BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL RATES WILL VARY...BUT COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 11 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Sweetness!!!!!!!!!! MKE hinting at LE too!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bail on a model that gives me 6"? lol ^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM did okay with the last system? It completely blew the snow in Iowa, although many of the models had them not getting nearly as much as what they ended up with. I'll take the Euro over the NAM any day of the week and twice on Sundays. I think the smart thing to do is to take a blend of the GFS and Euro, which usually seems to work best in most cases IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Josh gets buried again, Howell is left high and dry. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Weird looking IKK screw zone that run. Tight gradient. NAM torches the low levels for IKK. 1.8C at 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM did okay with the last system? It completely blew the snow in Iowa, although many of the models had them not getting nearly as much as what they ended up with. I'll take the Euro over the NAM any day of the week and twice on Sundays. I think the smart thing to do is to take a blend of the GFS and Euro, which usually seems to work best in most cases IMHO. Yeah it struggled late in Iowa but east of there I think it was pretty dam good and had the right idea early along with the Euro. Blind squirrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Josh gets buried again, Howell is left high and dry. Jeez. I have seen these gradient storms before but its scary. Doesnt seem to be a whole lot of room for error with the snowband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Liking the two county Watch Buffer zone with it extending up north all the Way to Sheboygan.. Feeling safe in another solid event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I have seen these gradient storms before but its scary. Doesnt seem to be a whole lot of room for error with the snowband. The storm hits on a perfect day for me... I have a light week. Translation= I'll be a trailering to SW Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LAF Im sure it wont materialize, but wow, nice circle over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 MKE is gonna get smoked. You are gonna get smoked as well. Same can be said for most of N.IN. Now i get to watch a decent event pass just to the west and south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z SREF snow probabilities look good for 4"+ for far northern IL, good chunk of WI, and then southern lower MI. Even a 25% chance at 8"+ around BTL. 54 and 63 hour maps below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I love all the scoffing that was done at those of us who earlier in the season were telling everyone in chicago they need to settle down on the futility talk because winter is a LONG season (no, not everyone did this but several did), and now chicago can kiss even a top 20 snowless winter goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DVN likes Euro/Gem better MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR LOOPS CURRENTLYSHOW VERY INTENSE UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO MT. THIS SYSTEMHAD 180 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB AT SPOKANE WA 12Z/03 WHICH ISVERY IMPRESSIVE. NICE COLD POCKET WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -36CALSO WITH THIS UPPER LOW. STRONGEST WINDS WERE STILL ON THE WESTSIDE OF THE TROUGH INDICATING MORE DIGGING TO TAKE PLACE. THIS WOULDFAVOR A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH THIS CLIPPER PER ECMWF/GEM TAKINGTHE LOW INTO MO. THE GFS/NAM SEEM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THISSYSTEM. ANYWAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLYHEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONGFORCING/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 150% OF NORMAL.WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOWS BEING IT ISMARCH AND THIS IS AN INTENSE SYSTEM...AND THERE WERE SOME LIGHTNINGSTRIKES EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IN NWMT. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (NOTCOUNTING TONIGHT AND MONDAY) WILL BE GENERALLY 6 TO 7 INCHES FROMI-80 NORTHWARD WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THIS IS ABIT SHORT OF THE CRITERIA OF NEEDING 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURSINCREASING WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD JUSTIFY KEEPING THEWINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THENEED TO CHANGE TO A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY. THE DEFORMATION SNOWSHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Another WI/IL border special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z SREF increased probabilities for freezing rain for parts of northern Indiana through central OH. 100% plain rain for LAF. 45 hour map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z SREF snow probabilities look good for 4"+ for far northern IL, good chunk of WI, and then southern lower MI. Even a 25% chance at 8"+ around BTL. 54 and 63 hour maps below. 3:3 15z SREF sp 54.gif 3:3 15z SREF sp 63.gif The euro and it's ensembles say no. Even the 18z NAM has backed off a bit here as the area was fully in the .75+ zone and now that is to my south/sw. We'll see but i would rather be further south in N.IN or atleast at the border for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sorry. I think this winter is getting to me...you know, the prospect of missing out on another big snow event. It probably makes sense to go more conservative than the Euro but by how much is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z SREF increased probabilities for freezing rain for parts of northern Indiana through central OH. 100% plain rain for LAF. 45 hour map below. 3:3 15z SREF ptype 45.gif At least no sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DVN likes Euro/Gem better STRONGEST WINDS WERE STILL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH INDICATING MORE DIGGING TO TAKE PLACE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH THIS CLIPPER PER ECMWF/GEM TAKING THE LOW INTO MO. THE GFS/NAM SEEM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANYWAY... It wouldn't be a decent system without DVN throwing out their usual "The wave is stronger, the jet is stronger, etc" nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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