Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The ECMWF bumped north. Now drops 0.60"+ QPF at ORD. atleast doubled QPF from the 0z run. .65" at ARR. still optimistic?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Welp, that should do it for here. Time of death for LAF...1:21pm, March 3. Good luck to all up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Welp, that should do it for here. Time of death for LAF...1:21pm, March 3. Good luck to all up north. LOL, at least wait til Chistorm posts the text data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Disagree about LAF. Euro looks like a good 2-4" Tuesday night into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If I'm in Chicago I'd be feeling good about being in or very near the heaviest band. The 12z suite should've had more sampling of the wave in question than the 00z runs. I really don't see how this goes north of them at this point but I guess stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL, at least wait til Chistorm posts the text data. Hopefully it's a warmer rain than what the NAM is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If I'm in Chicago I'd be feeling good about being in or very near the heaviest band. The 12z suite should've had more sampling of the wave in question than the 00z runs. I really don't see how this goes north of them at this point but I guess stranger things have happened. I'll feel a lot better if we can string together a few cycles without the north shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hopefully it's a warmer rain than what the NAM is advertising. It's a warmer snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro looks good for a 5-7" event here. Gonna keep on riding the 4-8" call for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's a warmer snow. Tells me all I need to know. It's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tells me all I need to know. It's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z ECMWF QPF text list... LSE: MON 18Z 04-MAR -3.5 -4.8 1019 68 98 0.03 548 533 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.8 -4.1 1018 73 97 0.01 549 536 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.8 -6.6 1019 82 99 0.04 548 533 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -5.8 -8.3 1019 88 100 0.13 545 530 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -5.0 -10.6 1021 81 98 0.25 543 526 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.2 -11.0 1024 78 93 0.08 546 527 MSN: TUE 06Z 05-MAR -5.0 -4.9 1020 81 97 0.01 550 534 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -3.7 -5.6 1017 83 100 0.03 548 534 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -3.6 -8.8 1018 84 99 0.20 544 530 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.3 -9.7 1021 86 97 0.17 545 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -6.3 -7.9 1024 85 84 0.02 549 531 MKE: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.4 -7.2 1017 79 98 0.05 546 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.1 -8.4 1018 85 100 0.13 545 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.2 -7.0 1021 85 94 0.05 549 532 RAC: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.1 -6.6 1017 79 98 0.06 546 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.4 -8.3 1017 83 99 0.15 545 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.5 -6.9 1020 84 94 0.06 548 533 CID: MON 12Z 04-MAR -4.5 -1.6 1016 82 95 0.09 550 538 MON 18Z 04-MAR -2.8 -1.6 1015 83 97 0.11 550 539 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.3 -2.4 1014 82 85 0.02 552 540 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.2 -3.8 1015 82 100 0.02 550 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -3.6 -5.9 1016 91 100 0.18 545 533 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -3.7 -9.5 1017 91 99 0.22 540 527 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.9 -10.5 1022 85 85 0.06 545 528 DVN: MON 12Z 04-MAR -4.2 -2.2 1017 68 99 0.01 551 537 MON 18Z 04-MAR -1.6 -1.9 1016 74 98 0.10 551 538 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -1.2 -1.9 1015 75 84 0.03 552 540 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.3 -2.5 1015 74 93 0.00 551 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.4 -3.4 1014 88 100 0.12 547 536 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.8 -7.8 1015 88 99 0.25 542 530 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.8 -10.3 1019 86 96 0.19 544 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -5.8 -8.7 1024 83 85 0.02 550 531 STL: TUE 12Z 05-MAR 3.1 1.5 1010 92 98 0.03 551 543 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.5 -5.9 1013 89 89 0.17 543 532 WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.1 -9.9 1017 71 97 0.03 537 523 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.2 -10.5 1022 75 91 0.02 548 531 PIA: MON 18Z 04-MAR 0.8 -0.9 1016 65 93 0.03 552 540 TUE 00Z 05-MAR 1.2 -1.3 1014 67 71 0.00 553 542 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 0.2 -0.8 1014 69 76 0.00 553 541 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.0 -1.0 1012 79 97 0.03 549 539 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -0.5 -5.5 1012 89 97 0.13 543 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.9 -10.1 1016 90 99 0.22 541 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.3 -8.8 1021 83 83 0.06 548 532 RFD: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.1 -2.1 1018 76 100 0.02 551 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.2 -3.3 1018 78 97 0.01 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.0 -4.1 1015 78 99 0.03 549 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.1 -5.9 1015 87 99 0.19 544 532 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.7 -9.0 1018 87 98 0.30 544 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -5.0 -7.4 1022 83 84 0.06 549 532 DKB: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.0 -1.7 1018 73 99 0.02 552 538 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.1 -2.8 1018 74 97 0.01 551 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.6 -3.2 1015 73 98 0.02 549 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.1 -4.5 1014 87 100 0.16 545 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.4 -8.8 1017 88 99 0.36 543 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.5 -7.0 1020 84 90 0.09 548 532 DPA: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.0 -1.8 1018 71 98 0.01 552 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.3 -2.9 1018 71 97 0.01 552 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.3 -3.0 1015 69 97 0.02 550 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.0 -3.7 1014 84 100 0.13 545 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.7 -9.1 1016 87 99 0.36 544 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.6 -6.8 1019 86 95 0.11 548 533 UGN: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.9 -5.5 1016 81 99 0.10 546 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.2 -8.6 1017 82 98 0.23 544 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.6 -6.9 1019 86 96 0.09 548 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.5 -4.8 1023 84 50 0.01 552 534 ORD: TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.7 -3.3 1018 71 97 0.01 552 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.1 -2.9 1015 69 97 0.02 550 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.9 -3.5 1014 82 100 0.11 546 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.7 -9.4 1015 85 99 0.35 544 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.4 -6.8 1018 86 95 0.13 548 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.4 -4.0 1023 84 52 0.01 552 535 MDW: TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.4 -2.6 1015 57 95 0.01 550 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.5 -3.1 1014 78 100 0.09 546 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.3 -9.1 1015 86 98 0.38 544 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.6 -6.9 1017 85 93 0.16 547 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.4 -4.0 1022 85 43 0.01 552 535 DEC: MON 18Z 04-MAR 2.6 -0.1 1016 56 87 0.01 554 541 TUE 00Z 05-MAR 2.6 -0.8 1014 60 62 0.00 555 543 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 2.4 0.5 1013 61 56 0.00 554 544 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 1.2 0.6 1011 84 81 0.04 551 542 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.8 -2.8 1010 94 97 0.06 545 537 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.4 -9.2 1013 92 99 0.23 539 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.0 -8.7 1018 86 95 0.11 546 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -5.4 -4.7 1023 82 70 0.01 553 535 VPZ: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -0.9 -1.9 1013 66 98 0.04 547 537 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.9 -7.8 1013 89 99 0.33 544 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1015 88 97 0.29 546 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.3 -4.0 1020 86 28 0.01 552 536 LAF: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.4 -0.2 1010 86 100 0.12 548 540 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.3 -6.1 1009 92 98 0.28 542 535 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.9 -6.3 1012 90 99 0.35 543 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.9 -4.8 1018 88 80 0.09 551 536 IND: TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.7 1.1 1013 68 95 0.02 553 543 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.2 2.1 1009 89 97 0.10 550 543 WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.2 -3.8 1006 97 100 0.36 542 537 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.3 -6.4 1009 92 98 0.44 540 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1016 87 90 0.19 548 535 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.2 -4.4 1023 79 37 0.01 556 538 OKK: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.8 -0.1 1011 72 100 0.12 549 541 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.6 -4.7 1009 88 100 0.20 544 537 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.0 -5.8 1010 91 100 0.54 542 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.7 -4.4 1017 87 88 0.18 550 537 FWA: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.0 -1.0 1014 58 100 0.01 550 539 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.9 -3.8 1010 76 100 0.09 545 537 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.5 -4.4 1009 86 100 0.45 543 536 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.2 -4.0 1015 82 83 0.20 549 537 MKG: WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.1 -5.4 1017 75 82 0.01 546 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.5 -4.9 1018 84 23 0.01 548 534 GRR: WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.4 -3.7 1017 87 18 0.01 548 534 BTL: WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.0 -5.4 1013 67 98 0.01 546 536 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.3 -3.7 1015 82 47 0.03 547 535 TOL: WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.8 -3.0 1011 79 86 0.03 545 537 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.2 -4.5 1016 79 33 0.04 548 536 DAY: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 2.1 0.3 1012 65 100 0.04 552 542 WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.5 0.5 1005 85 100 0.23 547 542 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.5 -2.8 1003 96 98 0.51 540 538 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.5 -3.8 1010 97 60 0.07 545 537 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.2 -5.1 1019 83 60 0.03 553 538 HAO: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 0.2 0.0 1018 69 97 0.01 555 540 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.2 0.8 1016 65 74 0.00 555 542 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 2.2 1.8 1011 77 98 0.09 553 544 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.2 1.9 1003 92 100 0.35 546 543 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.5 -4.2 1003 97 100 0.45 538 535 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.0 1009 95 12 0.05 544 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.1 -5.0 1019 82 57 0.01 554 539 CMH: WED 00Z 06-MAR 4.1 0.2 1006 55 99 0.02 549 543 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.7 -1.5 1003 96 94 0.36 543 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.6 -4.2 1010 99 98 0.15 544 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.4 -5.5 1018 75 81 0.08 552 538 CLE: WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.4 -4.8 1014 83 60 0.09 547 535 WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.5 -5.4 1019 61 28 0.01 552 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Closer inspection it looks like nearly 6" in LAF. You guys down there need to not give up on this, I'm tellin' ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ^Dang, the Euro is better for LAF than even I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 still optimistic?? First call for ORD... 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'll feel a lot better if we can string together a few cycles without the north shifts. The north camp really didn't shift any farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 First call for ORD... 5.0" Uh oh...I was thinking around 5" for first call for here. The Euro looks pretty good for the I-88 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The north camp really didn't shift any farther north. You know Joe is optimistic when he is talking up Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Euro shifted north but not nearly as far as the GEM and is not as far north as the GFS or NAM. Will be a tough call on the north side of things. The LSX WRF/SREFs are also north, and only the UKMET is a southern outlier. Things are looking up for a snow event, but how significant is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thanks for posting this Joe. Okay, the Doc says it's a trick play, McAfee's not kicking, but is gonna chuck it deep. Let's what kind of arm he's got. EDIT: This may cause some offices to consider watches, but after many busted last time, may wait until tomorrow. 12z ECMWF QPF text list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOT probably contemplating the watch with its next package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro looks pretty wet here...over half inch of liquid...snow ratios? probably 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOT map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOT map: 0z Euro FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro looks pretty wet here...over half inch of liquid...snow ratios? probably 6+ inches. Ratios could be quite good for this time of the year I think. Also think the euro may be undergoing the initial waa snows for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro, and many of the other models look about as "spread the wealth" as you can get at this late in the season. Gonna be a fun one for a lot of us guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm now in a WSW... yeehaw! One last blast before spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ^Dang, the Euro is better for LAF than even I was thinking. IND get more than LAF? What a cluster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Huge difference between American and foreign models for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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