AppsRunner Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Driving back from a weekend retreat with no internet.... Someone give me the cliff notes. Alek is punting his 4-9" of snow... interested in catching that punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alek is punting his 4-9" of snow... interested in catching that punt? Give my Daniel Manning over Hester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Driving back from a weekend retreat with no internet.... Someone give me the cliff notes. Alek is punting his 4-9" of snow... interested in catching that punt? He'd need to shank it pretty bad to get it over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 He'd need to shank it pretty bad to get it over here I'm the Ray Guy of the punting game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Still feeling good about 3-5 in Chicago. Maybe 5-8 up by Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 mke update hinting at drylot over Aleks house 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENTWITH INITIAL QPF BAND WITH 850MB FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING EAST INTOSOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY. 00ZECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS WILLBATTLE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INITIAL BAND MAY BEMORE OF A LIGHT SNOW BAND...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINSMODEST AT BEST.BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLYTUESDAY. THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONG 500MB LOW SLIDING SOUTHEASTFROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TO NORTHWEST IOWA...TO CENTRALILLINOIS. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN JUST NORTH OF THE EDGE OFTHE DRY SLOT...WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TOTHE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GOOD700 TO 750MB MIXING RATIOS OF 3 G/KG IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.THUS...MAY HAVE TO EXPAND WINTER STORM WATCH FURTHER NORTH ANDEAST ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY ALSO HAVE TO DELAY THESTART OF THE WATCH UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT...AS INITIAL BANDOF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MAY NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR A WATCH. STILLASSESSING THINGS HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's gonna be interesting watching how the WAA wing snows evolve late tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like there could be a quick hitting period of heavy snow with that before it lifts northeast. For us it looks like we could get a quick 1-3" with that, and then get dry slotted until tomorrow night. Should get some nice snows after midnight that last into much of Tue. To the northeast of me up over southern Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, the WAA wing should stall out over that area and dump quite a bit of snow before the main show arrives tomorrow night. Wherever that ends up stalling out will likely end up being in the higher zone of totals. The eventual pivot point axis should run along, or just south of that area from the looks of things. Like I said, I'm thinking 4-8" here and at the QC, and probably a good 8-12" northeast of here from MSN to Geosville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's gonna be interesting watching how the WAA wing snows evolve late tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like there could be a quick hitting period of heavy snow with that before it lifts northeast. For us it looks like we could get a quick 1-3" with that, and then get dry slotted until tomorrow night. Should get some nice snows after midnight that last into much of Tue. To the northeast of me up over southern Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, the WAA wing should stall out over that area and dump quite a bit of snow before the main show arrives tomorrow night. Wherever that ends up stalling out will likely end up being in the higher zone of totals. The eventual pivot point axis should run along, or just south of that area from the looks of things. Like I said, I'm thinking 4-8" here and at the QC, and probably a good 8-12" northeast of here from MSN to Geosville. I honestly haven't looked at things too much but there's definite potential for whoever spends prolonged time under the WAA and then gets the pivot point. The trend north seems hard to deny at this point and like others i'm sure the Euro will jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I honestly haven't looked at things too much but there's definite potential for whoever spends prolonged time under the WAA and then gets the pivot point. The trend north seems hard to deny at this point and like others i'm sure the Euro will jump on board. I like where you guys sit. Especially just north of you up towards the border. Even if the jackpot misses just north you should still be in for a great event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Need to temper the north trend a bit, or this will just be another reason for me to hate Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 4km NAM has 6-10" from south to north over Chicagoland. It's pretty stingy with the WAA wing snows for this area, which I'm not really buying. Think we'll do better here than what this map shows. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/4kmo.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 mke update hinting at drylot over Aleks house 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL QPF BAND WITH 850MB FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS WILL BATTLE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INITIAL BAND MAY BE MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW BAND...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS MODEST AT BEST. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONG 500MB LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TO NORTHWEST IOWA...TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN JUST NORTH OF THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GOOD 700 TO 750MB MIXING RATIOS OF 3 G/KG IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. Hmmm even the north most 12z NAM keeps the dry slot near/south of I-88 GFS has it even further south in central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 4km NAM has 6-10" from south to north over Chicagoland. It's pretty stingy with the WAA wing snows for this area, which I'm not really buying. Think we'll do better here than what this map shows. Yeah it took a nice jump south from it's 6z run. Hopefully further south with the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Haven't been paying much attention, so this one caught me off guard. (The cursory glaces I was taking at this thread, had me thinking this was all going to be west of us....) Given the QPF numbers from the maps that have been posted, what kind of ratios are we talking? Ground temps again, look to be marginal. 33 for Tues, 36 for Wed, and 35 on Monday. If this is going to be 4"-6" of the same slop that fell with the last one, keep it. Don't feel like dealing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One of the high res WRF really illustrate the heavy snow potential early Tuesday, as the main deformation band gets going. Looks like the precip takes on a somewhat convective look as the intense vort moves into Iowa. Gonna be very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Haven't been paying much attention, so this one caught me off guard. (The cursory glaces I was taking at this thread, had me thinking this was all going to be west of us....) Ratios should be higher for this. Given the QPF numbers from the maps that have been posted, what kind of ratios are we talking? Ground temps again, look to be marginal. 33 for Tues, 36 for Wed, and 35 on Monday. If this is going to be 4"-6" of the same slop that fell with the last one, keep it. Don't feel like dealing with it. Ratios should be higher with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Differences in the 500 low positioning on the 12z GFS and NAM at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like where you guys sit. Especially just north of you up towards the border. Even if the jackpot misses just north you should still be in for a great event IMO. potential for best of the season is there but the trend north in concerning. 1-3 for the city sounds good with amounts increasing rapidly just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Haven't been paying much attention, so this one caught me off guard. (The cursory glaces I was taking at this thread, had me thinking this was all going to be west of us....) Given the QPF numbers from the maps that have been posted, what kind of ratios are we talking? Ground temps again, look to be marginal. 33 for Tues, 36 for Wed, and 35 on Monday. If this is going to be 4"-6" of the same slop that fell with the last one, keep it. Don't feel like dealing with it. Sure thing RespiratoryGuy I'll keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One of the high res WRF really illustrate the heavy snow potential early Tuesday, as the main deformation band gets going. Looks like the precip takes on a somewhat convective look as the intense vort moves into Iowa. Gonna be very interesting... Yeah that run also is pretty agressive with bringing a narrow but intense band of WAA snow through here late tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Been a pretty miserable model, but...congrats E IA, N IL, and N IN on the 12z GGEM. IWXwx FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS keeping the best snows off to the north.. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_063.gif Yep, no doubt about it.. Well, at least I can start to focus to see how the weather is going to be next week while I'm down in San Antonio/Lackland AFB.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here come the watches... considerably further north and look to focus on areas like Minneapolis, Eau Clare, Madison, Milwaukee, Chicago, South Bend, Grand Rapids, and Fort Wayne.Guys, I have a better feeling about this one than I have had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Differences in the 500 low positioning on the 12z GFS and NAM at 60 hours. 3:3 12z NAM 500 60.gif 3:3 12z GFS 500 60.gif looks like the NAM has the wave in southern Canada/MN further south causing the NAM to try to phase with it where the GFS doesn't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 <Alek> PUNT! </ALEK> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm gonna laugh when the Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Quick look at the 12z Euro...it seems fairly similar to the 00z run with track. Maybe a small bump north but not in the northern camp. Nice war shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just by looking at raw data for northern IL, Euro is wetter here. 850's drop to near -10 deg C by Tuesday evening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The ECMWF bumped north. Now drops 0.60"+ QPF at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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