March 4-6 Winter Storm

[Allsnow]

Gfs is 8-12 for alek on SV maps. Euro was real far south at 00z expect that to come north

[RCNYILWX]

LOT just dropped the SWS.

It expired/fell off the webpage. They have defined expiration times. Nothing to read into.

[Chitown Storm]

LOT just dropped the SWS.

 

probably just expired....no biggie.

[ILSNOW]

It expired/fell off the webpage. They have defined expiration times. Nothing to read into.

you think we see a watch by late this afternoon??

[SchaumburgStormer]

you think we see a watch by late this afternoon??

I think we need a bit more track continuity. No point in issuing a watch when it is still possible to have a miss to the north, or south. But after our watch discussion last storm, even mentioning it is beating a dead horse.

[Spwild47]

Goes looks like we are bullseye again right?

[Spwild47]

Geos that is..damn autocorrect

[B-Rent]

GFS keeping the best snows off to the north..

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_063.gif

[Chicago WX]

0z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

LAF:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.4    -1.0    1017      65      99    0.02     553     539    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -1.2    1017      72      96    0.00     553     540    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.8    -1.1    1015      70      91    0.00     552     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.7     0.1    1012      72      99    0.02     550     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.1    -4.5    1011      85     100    0.16     546     537    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -5.1    1012      85     100    0.35     545     536    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -3.2    1017      87      94    0.11     550     537

 

Used to be a time when this was a good thing to see. How far the good Doctor has fallen.  

[Stebo]

I See it being AT LEAST 80 Miles South...NAM playing catch-up 

 

 

Check this out. HM Says the Hell with MI

 

Lock it in that it will be North of this track, Harry M. can never get a forecast right even 12hrs out.

[stormtrackertf]

9z SREF 12 hour snow probability maps are way north. Highest 4"+ probabilities in WI and MI. Note though, 8"+ probs are essentially nil. 60 and 69 hour maps below.

 

3:3 9z SREF sp 60.gif

 

3:3 9z SREF sp 69.gif

Looks way too far north but I am a fan of those maps.

[Stebo]

Tempering the QPF amounts a bit, this is what I'm liking for a range...at the moment.

 

DBQ: 6-8"

DTW: 4-6"

FWA: 3-5"

GRR: 4-6"

LAF: 0-T

LSE: 6-8"

MDW: 2-4"

MKE: 6-8"

MKG: 3-5"

MLI: 2-4"

MSN: 6-8"

ORD: 4-6"

RFD: 4-6"

SBN: 4-6"

This looks reasonable, I can back these numbers.

[RCNYILWX]

you think we see a watch by late this afternoon??

I don't have any inside info because I'm not at work yet but I think there's a decent chance of one if the Euro gets on board moreso than the 00z run.

[UW-weather]

Ok, this was one of the tougher forecasts this winter, especially less than a couple days out! Here's what i came up with, worked on it all morning, but feel free to rip into it! more of my thoughts at www.midwestweather.org 

 

What do you think? 

 

I will probably need to tweak this afternoon...may need to add a 10-15" some where, maybe expand the 6-12"...but not yet QPF is trending lower. maybe a northern tweak if 12z euro finally conforms..

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM real nice for N/NE IL, N IN into OH.

[Harry Perry]

Tempering the QPF amounts a bit, this is what I'm liking for a range...at the moment.

 

DBQ: 6-8"

DTW: 4-6"

FWA: 3-5"

GRR: 4-6"

LAF: 0-T

LSE: 6-8"

MDW: 2-4"

MKE: 6-8"

MKG: 3-5"

MLI: 2-4"

MSN: 6-8"

ORD: 4-6"

RFD: 4-6"

SBN: 4-6"

Those look good to me. Very reasonable numbers for many.

[Stebo]

12z GGEM real nice for N/NE IL, N IN into OH.

Looks like a shift Northward some compared to 00z run.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like a shift Northward some compared to 00z run.

 

A little bit. Southern WI and southwest/far southern MI do good.

 

But, north trend is pretty clear. NAM leading the charge. Might be a legit model again.

[Thundersnow12]

12z GGEM real nice for N/NE IL, N IN into OH.

 

 nice 15mm bullseye.

[Thundersnow12]

A little bit. Southern WI and southwest/far southern MI do good.

 

But, north trend is pretty clear. NAM leading the charge. Might be a legit model again.

 

I think it's 6z run was too far north. 18z run will either hold it's ground or come more south in line with the GFS.

[Chicago WX]

I think it's 6z run was too far north. 18z run will either hold it's ground or come more south in line with the GFS.

 

6z run was bananas. But, it's the been on the northern edge overall...and the others are falling in line. I'd imagine the Euro will surrender at 12z today.

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like a shift Northward some compared to 00z run.

 

 

the trend is your friend

[Geos]

Geos that is..damn autocorrect

 

Haha. Gotta love the autocorrect.

 

12z comparison. About 70 miles between bullseye's (Milwaukee to western burbs)

 

[Chicago WX]

HPC model discussion, including the 12z GFS and NAM.

 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1151 AM EST SUN MAR 03 2013VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND INITIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES ANDPREFERENCESMODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING....LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERNU.S...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE ASPECTS OF THISFEATURE....SHORTWAVE INITIALLY OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA......CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY......MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY......EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...PREFERENCES: STILL LOOKING AT A 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR DAY 1...AVERAGE FOR DAY 2 AND BELOW AVERAGEFOR DAY 3 SINCE THERE ARE STILL SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THENCEP/NON-NCEP MODELS.THE 12Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN IN 500 MB INTENSITY/SEALEVEL PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT THROUGH DAY 3...BEING SLIGHTLY CLOSERTO THE COAST AT 84 HOURS.THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EVEN BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHTENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH THE LATEST 09Z ENSEMBLE MEANS/06Z GEFSENSEMBLE MEANS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BYTHE TIME THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIOVALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAYMORNING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN ARE ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE00Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...INDICATING THE EUROPEANENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SETOF SOLUTIONS.THE 12Z NAM RUNS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST AND EAST THAN THEMEANS/OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS. BY MONDAYEVENING...THE UPPER LOW HAS ELONGATED AND MOVED TOWARD NORTHDAKOTA AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS APPEAR WITHIN THE LARGER SUITE OFSOLUTIONS.  MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET APPEARS AS A SOMEWHAT SLOWOUTLIER BY THIS POINT.BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGHOVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI WHILE THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF REMAIN SLOWERAND DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS SIMILAR TOTHE 06Z GEFS MEAN...WHICH IS FASTER AND NOT AS DEEP AS THE 00ZECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE OVERNIGHT MEANS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANTCUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITIONOVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE THE 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFS MEANREMAINS AROUND 140 MILES FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST NEAR THE NORTHERNILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER.  THE OOZ UKMET/ECMWF REMAINS FARTHESTSOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW CENTERED NEAR SE MISSOURI...ABOUT 75 MILESSOUTHWEST OF THE EC MEAN POSITION. THE 12Z NAM IS VIRTUALLYIDENTICAL TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN POSITION. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SW OFTHE 12Z NAM POSITION VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANPOSITION. THE 12Z GFS MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHOICE THAN THE 12ZNAM WITH ITS COMPROMISE LOCATION THROUGH DAY 2.

[AppsRunner]

GEFS is pretty much what you would expect... basically a GFS track, .75"+ runs from NW IL to FWA and pretty juicy elsewhere

[Harry Perry]

HPC model discussion, including the 12z GFS and NAM.

 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1151 AM EST SUN MAR 03 2013VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND INITIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES ANDPREFERENCESMODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING....LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERNU.S...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE ASPECTS OF THISFEATURE....SHORTWAVE INITIALLY OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA......CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY......MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY......EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...PREFERENCES: STILL LOOKING AT A 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR DAY 1...AVERAGE FOR DAY 2 AND BELOW AVERAGEFOR DAY 3 SINCE THERE ARE STILL SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THENCEP/NON-NCEP MODELS.THE 12Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN IN 500 MB INTENSITY/SEALEVEL PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT THROUGH DAY 3...BEING SLIGHTLY CLOSERTO THE COAST AT 84 HOURS.THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EVEN BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHTENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH THE LATEST 09Z ENSEMBLE MEANS/06Z GEFSENSEMBLE MEANS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BYTHE TIME THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIOVALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAYMORNING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN ARE ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE00Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...INDICATING THE EUROPEANENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SETOF SOLUTIONS.THE 12Z NAM RUNS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST AND EAST THAN THEMEANS/OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS. BY MONDAYEVENING...THE UPPER LOW HAS ELONGATED AND MOVED TOWARD NORTHDAKOTA AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS APPEAR WITHIN THE LARGER SUITE OFSOLUTIONS.  MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET APPEARS AS A SOMEWHAT SLOWOUTLIER BY THIS POINT.BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGHOVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI WHILE THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF REMAIN SLOWERAND DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS SIMILAR TOTHE 06Z GEFS MEAN...WHICH IS FASTER AND NOT AS DEEP AS THE 00ZECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE OVERNIGHT MEANS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANTCUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITIONOVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE THE 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFS MEANREMAINS AROUND 140 MILES FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST NEAR THE NORTHERNILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER.  THE OOZ UKMET/ECMWF REMAINS FARTHESTSOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW CENTERED NEAR SE MISSOURI...ABOUT 75 MILESSOUTHWEST OF THE EC MEAN POSITION. THE 12Z NAM IS VIRTUALLYIDENTICAL TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN POSITION. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SW OFTHE 12Z NAM POSITION VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANPOSITION. THE 12Z GFS MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHOICE THAN THE 12ZNAM WITH ITS COMPROMISE LOCATION THROUGH DAY 2.

And that my friend, may be what determines additional WSW's this afternoon...

[cyclone77]

Feeling pretty good about a 4-8" event here.  We're on southern edge of things, but think we'll do good.  Jackpot zone still looks like southern Wisconsin into northeast IL to me.  Hope the Euro doesn't do anything screwy lol.

[Chicago WX]

GEFS is pretty much what you would expect... basically a GFS track, .75"+ runs from NW IL to FWA and pretty juicy elsewhere

 

Nice Chicago, far SE Wisconsin, N IN, far SW MI bulls eye at 60 hours.

 

[hm8]

Driving back from a weekend retreat with no internet.... Someone give me the cliff notes.

[Chicago WX]

12z GEFS mean total QPF