Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Still think there's a limit to how north, unless the block is weaker than it's been modeled, though there is good ensemble support for keeping it strong through the time of the event. Yeah I would have to believe we are pretty close to our Northern limitation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Still think there's a limit to how north, unless the block is weaker than it's been modeled, though there is good ensemble support for keeping it strong through the time of the event. Yeah I'd agree, but that solution would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 FWIW 6z NAM Snowfall. This has to be a northern outlier. Don't think any other model or ensembles are anywhere near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro Ens look close to if not a bit south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013030312f072_sm.gif Bullish odds for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the GFS shifted a touch North from 00z run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_075.gif Nice bump upward here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hey Tim, what's up with your buddy Chad? Saying an 1" or less?? He must be changed man or something.. Should look at these storms as par for the course this winter.. Oh well, always next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can't believe this is going to be another miss north...we always find a way. Might be time to take a break until we hit 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Whoever had missing to the North, you have a bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One more post, then back to the storm. Proper measuring is checking (and clearing) the board at 7 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM, and 1 AM. That's the probable reason for the 4" Midway snowfall. However, anything that falls and melts in between is not counted. Most people check as soon as the snow lets up and reports it, thus higher amounts than the 'official' measurement. That really makes ORD/Harwood Heights measurements seem strange. A snowfall like the last one is quite rare, so it made the measuring quite tricky. That is definitely true about the measuring times. However...say you cleared the board at 1pm, and then 3 more hours of snow dropped 1.5" when the snow let up at 4pm but if you waited til 7pm (after 3 hours of no snow) and the snow had settled to 1.3". You would not have to wait til 7pm, if you are sure the snow is done at 4pm you could report then. It's all tied to GMT synoptic hours (12z, 18z, 00z, 06z), so in CST, you measure at 6am, 12pm, 6pm, and 12am, but you're right about EST. On the second point, you're actually supposed to measure when the snow stops and not wait until the synoptic hour. You're only supposed to wait until the synoptic hour while it's still snowing, to account for compaction. Let's say it quickly snowed 1" in a very marginal temp situation after 18z and then it stopped. If you wait until 00z and the snow melted by then, it would be like the snow never fell, which is obviously incorrect.The ORD measurement was decent for the last event, best we could tell. It was lower by a bit over an inch than CoCoRaHS reports close by in Elk Grove Village. Harwood Heights was probably wrong: IL-CK-196 : HARWOOD HEIGHTS 1.9 NNE * : 0.93 / 3.4 / MM / MM- ratios were low but not 3:1. It's a double-edged sword with snowfall measurements for the WFO's because obviously there's a right way to do measurements, but if everyone did it that way, we wouldn't know how much snow was falling real time for purposes of verifying warnings or needing to upgrade advisories to warnings.Another point is that the measurements that are done more frequently than synoptic hours are probably a bit inflated, but on the other hand, the other measurements we rely on, from COOPs and some CoCoRaHS, are not any better, and likely underdone because other than the Midway 3SW COOP, they're only measuring and clearing the board every 24 hours (which may have been the case with Harwood Heights). Thanks for the input. I actually knew about measuring at the end of synoptic event, but failed to post it. And yes, I was talking EST. I am a CoCoRaHS reporter, but I try to measure on the synoptic hour and when the snow is done, then add them together for my 7 AM report. However, CoCoRaHS asks you to only measure once a day. Having access to NWSChat, I usually keep IWX informed of local amounts/rates real time when warranted. This discussion once again brings up how subjective measuring is and unless a measurement sounds really out of line, I just use it to give a general idea of snowfall in a particular location. In all due respect I disagree with this. Speaking with some hydrologists at Mall of America during government days, the proper way way to measure snowfall on your board is to do it every 6 hrs after the start of the event to the end. Of course if you want to record daily snowfall you should always take a measurement at midnight, but during a event, don't clean your board unless it's close to the 6hr interval. I posted most of the conversation above. I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with. If it's about waiting until the synoptic hour after the storm ends, I corrected myself in the next post. I also addressed the problem with CoCoRaHS reporting. I don't mean to , but if I'm doing something wrong in my measuring, I want to correct it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol now worried about a miss north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hpc http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Almost every sytem this winter season has had the northern tick to it through out the modeling process. We have all felt the pain of a potential snowy system simpilly pull the rug from under your feet at the last moment leaving you feeling cheated on. It happens to someone with every time. Even I have fallen victom many times this winter season and still enjoy watching the evolution of a storm good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A lot of people throwing in the towel too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ahh, I see the ole "northern tick" has made it in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A lot of people throwing in the towel too quickly. what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 North Dakota is going to have major flooding issues this spring! Looks like a good 6+ dump here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A lot of people throwing in the towel too quickly. Indeed, really makes it difficult to take their posts too seriously. Though I know a couple throw the towel in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So, what is it? NWS LOT issues a Special Weather Statement regarding Tuesday for possibly 6+" Channel 7 met this morning showing the various tracks, and saying "We aren't going to miss out on this one." ... He showed the NAM, GFS and Euro forecast tracks, each one giving us snow, although in different amounts, depending on the track. Here I am reading "Another miss north" in this thread. Kinda confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I do recall a few years ago when more lows were coming south like a clipper, that the models had a rather hard time nailing down the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So, what is it? NWS LOT issues a Special Weather Statement regarding Tuesday for possibly 6+" Channel 7 met this morning showing the various tracks, and saying "We aren't going to miss out on this one." ... He showed the NAM, GFS and Euro forecast tracks, each one giving us snow, although in different amounts, depending on the track. Here I am reading "Another miss north" in this thread. Kinda confused. The another miss to the North is the wrong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 See you all next winter......(fork) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z Nam still North...and a tad stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z Nam still North...and a tad stronger.... its actually a little south of 6z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For some areas that got bunked on the last one... they should see a good snow out of this one.Chicago looks to be in a prime location. I-80 and maybe even I-94 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 its actually a little south of 6z Nam By how much like 10 miles?? Not a big difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By how much like 10 miles?? Not a big difference... Heavier snows are back in Chi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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