Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hope for us in South Central Indiana? Warm early on. Barring something strange, the northern part of the state is going to be better than south for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on. Noticed that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on. yeah had those big QPF runs for here with the last event about 36/48hrs out then slowly knocked off some QPF as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on. Has a weaker UL system. Thus why as well this model tracks the UL to TN and then along the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah had those big QPF runs for here with the last event about 36/48hrs out then slowly knocked off some QPF as we got closer. The thing is those big QPF runs last time verified, it just wasn't all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 EURO was quite a bit short here. But that was mainly because the model didn't pick up on lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its hard to bet against the euro but itvhasnt performed well for the past two events correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z ECMWF QPF text list... LSE: MON 12Z 04-MAR -7.0 -5.4 1019 71 100 0.01 548 533 MON 18Z 04-MAR -4.1 -4.8 1019 74 98 0.10 548 533 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.7 -4.8 1018 79 98 0.04 549 535 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -4.3 -6.4 1020 84 99 0.06 548 533 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -5.8 -8.0 1020 84 100 0.08 546 531 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -5.6 -10.4 1023 79 98 0.19 545 528 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.5 -10.0 1025 78 96 0.08 548 528 MKE: WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.9 -6.5 1020 84 94 0.02 548 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.7 -6.7 1021 85 41 0.02 550 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.5 -4.1 1023 87 34 0.01 552 534 MSN: MON 18Z 04-MAR -3.0 -5.3 1020 69 99 0.01 549 533 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.2 -3.8 1018 77 96 0.03 550 535 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -5.2 -5.1 1020 81 98 0.01 550 534 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -4.4 -4.6 1018 82 97 0.01 549 534 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -3.4 -8.2 1020 79 98 0.07 547 531 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.0 -8.0 1022 85 98 0.12 547 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -5.2 -8.3 1024 83 89 0.01 550 531 RAC: WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.4 -6.4 1019 83 94 0.03 547 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.0 -6.5 1020 84 48 0.02 549 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.8 -4.1 1023 86 31 0.01 552 534 CID: MON 06Z 04-MAR -4.5 -3.2 1018 78 98 0.01 550 536 MON 12Z 04-MAR -4.4 -1.3 1015 85 90 0.11 550 538 MON 18Z 04-MAR -2.5 -1.8 1015 84 91 0.03 550 539 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.6 -2.7 1015 84 81 0.00 551 539 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.6 -4.0 1016 85 100 0.01 550 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -3.9 -5.7 1016 90 100 0.15 547 534 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -4.1 -9.0 1019 90 98 0.24 544 529 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.4 -10.2 1023 85 95 0.11 547 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -6.7 -8.5 1026 82 76 0.01 551 531 DVN: MON 12Z 04-MAR -4.2 -2.0 1017 75 98 0.04 550 537 MON 18Z 04-MAR -1.8 -2.1 1016 76 98 0.08 550 538 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -1.9 -2.3 1015 80 83 0.00 551 539 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.0 -2.8 1016 79 96 0.00 551 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.6 -3.6 1015 86 100 0.08 548 536 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.2 -6.7 1016 88 98 0.27 545 532 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.0 -9.7 1020 86 95 0.21 546 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.5 -7.1 1023 80 85 0.01 550 532 STL: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 4.3 1.3 1010 76 61 0.01 554 546 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 2.3 0.7 1010 91 90 0.03 552 543 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.4 -3.5 1012 94 99 0.09 546 536 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.9 -10.2 1016 81 99 0.18 540 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.4 -9.4 1020 81 86 0.08 548 532 PIA: MON 12Z 04-MAR -2.6 -1.5 1017 68 97 0.02 552 538 MON 18Z 04-MAR 0.0 -1.2 1016 69 96 0.04 552 540 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -0.1 -1.9 1014 73 77 0.00 553 541 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.4 -1.3 1014 75 83 0.00 552 541 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.8 -1.6 1013 83 98 0.06 550 539 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.0 -3.6 1013 89 99 0.16 546 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.5 -8.2 1016 89 97 0.26 544 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.1 -7.3 1020 84 85 0.12 549 533 RFD: MON 18Z 04-MAR -2.6 -4.0 1019 76 100 0.03 550 535 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.3 -2.5 1018 75 98 0.04 551 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.5 -3.7 1019 78 97 0.01 551 536 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.1 -3.7 1016 76 99 0.01 549 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.3 -5.3 1017 84 99 0.18 547 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.5 -8.1 1019 84 98 0.19 546 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.6 -6.6 1022 83 95 0.03 550 533 DKB: MON 18Z 04-MAR -2.0 -3.9 1019 72 100 0.02 550 535 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.2 -2.1 1018 73 98 0.04 551 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.4 -3.1 1018 75 98 0.01 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.9 -3.2 1016 73 99 0.00 550 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.5 -4.0 1016 83 100 0.15 547 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.6 -7.1 1018 86 100 0.21 546 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.0 -5.5 1020 85 96 0.05 549 533 DPA: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.1 -2.1 1018 71 99 0.03 551 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.7 -3.2 1018 71 97 0.01 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.7 -3.0 1016 70 98 0.00 550 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.2 -4.0 1016 79 100 0.10 548 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.8 -7.0 1017 84 99 0.19 546 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.7 -5.8 1019 85 95 0.06 549 534 UGN: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.9 -5.4 1018 73 100 0.02 548 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.2 -6.4 1018 82 99 0.06 547 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.9 -6.4 1019 84 68 0.03 549 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.8 -3.8 1022 87 25 0.01 552 534 ORD: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.9 -2.2 1018 70 99 0.01 551 536 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.0 -3.5 1018 70 97 0.01 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.4 -3.2 1016 70 96 0.00 550 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.8 -4.3 1017 76 100 0.06 548 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.5 -7.2 1017 81 99 0.16 547 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.5 -6.4 1018 84 91 0.06 549 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.2 -3.5 1022 86 21 0.01 552 535 MDW: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -1.6 -2.1 1018 65 99 0.02 551 537 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.5 -3.2 1018 61 97 0.00 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.1 -2.9 1016 60 97 0.00 551 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.5 -3.5 1016 73 100 0.06 548 536 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.8 -7.2 1016 82 99 0.18 546 534 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.4 -6.0 1018 84 92 0.08 549 535 DEC: MON 12Z 04-MAR -2.3 -1.1 1018 58 94 0.01 553 539 MON 18Z 04-MAR 1.4 -0.1 1016 61 92 0.02 554 541 TUE 00Z 05-MAR 1.4 -1.3 1014 67 68 0.00 554 543 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 1.6 0.3 1013 67 74 0.00 553 543 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.8 0.2 1012 83 79 0.03 551 541 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.0 -1.5 1011 94 99 0.09 548 539 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.8 -7.4 1013 92 97 0.25 543 533 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.6 -7.6 1016 89 98 0.27 546 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.8 -3.7 1021 84 93 0.02 553 536 VPZ: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -0.6 -2.2 1015 62 100 0.03 549 537 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.1 -6.3 1014 79 100 0.13 547 536 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.4 -3.0 1016 81 98 0.11 548 535 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.9 -3.8 1019 87 40 0.01 551 536 LAF: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -0.4 -1.0 1017 65 99 0.02 553 539 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.5 -1.2 1017 72 96 0.00 553 540 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.8 -1.1 1015 70 91 0.00 552 540 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.7 0.1 1012 72 99 0.02 550 540 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.1 -4.5 1011 85 100 0.16 546 537 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.4 -5.1 1012 85 100 0.35 545 536 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.7 -3.2 1017 87 94 0.11 550 537 IND: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -0.1 -0.4 1017 65 97 0.01 554 540 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 0.2 -0.4 1016 74 89 0.01 554 541 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.0 -0.1 1014 75 89 0.01 553 542 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.4 1.3 1011 80 96 0.09 551 542 WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.8 -0.8 1007 88 100 0.15 546 541 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.5 -4.8 1008 89 99 0.49 542 536 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.5 -4.2 1014 88 97 0.21 549 538 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.3 1021 77 35 0.02 556 539 OKK: TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.0 -1.7 1018 64 97 0.02 553 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.0 -1.0 1016 58 91 0.00 552 540 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.0 -0.7 1013 60 99 0.01 551 540 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.7 -2.2 1010 74 100 0.05 547 539 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.0 -4.3 1011 81 99 0.22 546 537 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.3 -2.4 1015 83 95 0.15 550 537 FWA: WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.5 -1.8 1013 69 100 0.02 548 538 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.4 -3.2 1012 75 99 0.07 547 538 WED 12Z 06-MAR -0.8 -2.1 1015 74 75 0.03 549 537 PAH: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 8.2 6.0 1009 93 88 0.08 558 551 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 8.4 6.2 1007 98 88 0.20 556 550 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 8.4 3.8 1007 98 98 0.17 552 546 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.2 -8.0 1013 82 86 0.20 539 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.8 -9.9 1015 79 99 0.08 540 529 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.1 -6.4 1019 74 82 0.06 550 535 DAY: TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.8 -1.7 1019 68 96 0.01 553 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -4.2 -1.1 1017 66 85 0.00 554 540 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 2.2 -0.6 1014 60 91 0.02 553 541 WED 00Z 06-MAR 3.1 -0.1 1009 58 99 0.05 550 543 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.7 -0.2 1005 90 97 0.29 546 542 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.3 -3.4 1010 93 96 0.38 547 539 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.6 -4.0 1017 83 69 0.07 553 539 HAO: TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.0 -1.1 1018 80 96 0.03 554 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.0 -0.5 1016 73 79 0.00 554 541 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 3.4 0.7 1013 67 91 0.09 553 543 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.6 1.3 1007 82 100 0.14 549 544 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.5 -1.2 1004 95 85 0.31 543 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.8 -3.5 1009 95 96 0.16 545 538 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.8 -4.0 1017 80 74 0.13 553 540 CMH: WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.6 0.8 1007 79 98 0.20 548 543 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.8 -2.9 1010 91 97 0.38 547 539 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.4 -3.6 1016 78 94 0.10 552 539 THU 00Z 07-MAR 0.5 -4.0 1021 83 37 0.01 555 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its hard to bet against the euro but itvhasnt performed well for the past two events correct? It's been starting out drier than the other models. Last event it trended a bit NW in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Has a weaker UL system. Thus why as well this model tracks the UL to TN and then along the NC/SC border. yep, weaker ULL on Euro causing further south track. NAM/GFS had H5 low at 72hr near 532dm, Euro has it at 540dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well I wouldn't bet against King Euro, so early congrats ORD/DVN south and east, especially LAF. The Euro is not always right, but it wasn't far off last event, and its wetness proved closer to correct than many models, the fact that it's a drier model in general this time around is a red flag to not expect as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yep, weaker ULL on Euro causing further south track. NAM/GFS had H5 low at 72hr near 532dm, Euro has it at 540dm. It's all about the strength of the ULL. Further south makes sense if it's weaker. But maybe all the energy hasn't been sampled yet: Nonetheless, -37 at H5 is already a pretty strong wave. Pretty much American vs. foreign guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's all about the strength of the ULL. Further south makes sense if it's weaker. But maybe all the energy hasn't been sampled yet: Nonetheless, -37 at H5 is already a pretty strong wave. Pretty much American vs. foreign guidance tonight. Based on this i would say the 00z runs missed a bit of it. 4hrs ago ( 02z ) it was still pretty much off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Based on this i would say the 00z runs missed a bit of it. Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though. Yeah the 06z may be a good starting point for sure. That image i posted is valid 06z so yeah i think they may have a bit of a clearer picture and if not the 12z for sure. This system sorta reminds me of the Feb ( 9-10th i think? ) 2010 storm which brought a massive dumping to the DC/Baltimore/Philly region and even a nice dumping out this way in the GL/MW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though. Agree with both of you and you can tell by looping WV it wasn't fully or even half sampled at 0z. I should be up for the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah based upon the observations RCNYILWX posted plus the current mesoanalysis one would have to believe that the Euro is too weak with the wave at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm 020918.png Dropped a foot here as well. Only storm i know of to do that AND dump massive amounts in the Mid Atlantic. Usually if this area gets hit like that then New England gets it if anyone along the coast. Like this though that as well had a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm 020918.png 14.0" for me. LEhS was well pronounced with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm 020918.png #5 CIPS Analog for 00z GFS tonight: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The ECMWF is fairly close to American guidance up until the Missouri River/Dakotas area...After which sig differences are seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS ensembles are similar to the op but a bit more spread out with the QPF toward the South, I would disagree with the lack of a strong Southern cutoff as this will probably have one. Beyond that they like the op are much further North compared to the 18z and 12z runs with respect to the Northern edge of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For STL. the Gem, ukmet, and Euro = late season 3-7 inch snow event vs GFS and NAM = flurries or light snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z NAM is warmer. Chicago appears to have possible mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z NAM coming even further north. Talk about a diffence between it and the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No stopping the NAM, North she comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z NAM atleast gives us further north some breathing room with the euro still soo far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z NAM coming even further north. Talk about a diffence between it and the 0z Euro. Still think there's a limit to how north, unless the block is weaker than it's been modeled, though there is good ensemble support for keeping it strong through the time of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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