Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Kinda learned to knock off a couple inches off the SREF plume mean snowfall, but the 21z run had 10.6" for ORD. So, 6-8" might be a better range at this stage. Still a wide range of solutions. Expected this far out...but they range from 0.9" to 19.6". The top run for LAF? The NMN3 with, I kid you not, 6.66". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Boy...I might be unintentionally chasing this one! I'll be driving back from Oklahoma on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Kinda learned to knock off a couple inches off the SREF plume mean snowfall, but the 21z run had 10.6" for ORD. So, 6-8" might be a better range at this stage. Still a wide range of solutions, expected this far out...but they range from 0.9" to 19.6". The top run for LAF? The NMN3 with, I kid you not, 6.66". Alek's heated front doorstep to Mt. Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Enormous differences between the NAM/UKMET for something just a few days away. Definitely the extremes right now. One more decent run from the Dr tonight, to keep our very faint hopes alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alek's heated front doorstep to Mt. Geos. lol, that's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alek's heated front doorstep to Mt. Geos. MKX will probably issue watches soon in the southern cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 0z LSX WRF is really agreesive with the WAA snows across MN and the northern half of IA on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One more decent run from the Dr tonight, to keep our very faint hopes alive? I'd like to see it shift south but holding steady would be the next best thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd like to see it shift south but holding steady would be the next best thing. Asking for a lot, aren't we? South shift. 0z GGEM, as crappy as it is, is pretty excruciating for LAF. The rain/snow line may literally cut the county in half, for a time, but then eventually flips to snow. 12z run was like that as well, but shifted south by a little bit. Good hit for central IL up to I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ABC 7 Chicago Weather on Facebook: Okay snowstorm possible Monday night into Tue. Right now I am going 6-10" with locally more. Will have latest on our 6am news along with our updated Microcast snow amounts. A Winter Storm Watch almost assuredly will be issued. Sleep well everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Careful, now. Alek'll say it'll be 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Asking for a lot, aren't we? South shift. 0z GGEM, as crappy as it is, is pretty excruciating for LAF. The rain/snow line may literally cut the county in half, for a time, but then eventually flips to snow. 12z run was like that as well, but shifted south by a little bit. Good hit for central IL up to I-80. Probably, but hey, you never know. It's possible the NAM went too far (based on the other 00z suite and what was posted about the NAM initialization) but even if that's the case, precip type is still a very big concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Probably, but hey, you never know. It's possible the NAM went too far (based on the other 00z suite and what was posted about the NAM initialization) but even if that's the case, precip type is still a very big concern. We're well past the point of thinking (dreaming) primarily snow. Now it's salvage whatever we can mode. Anything but 33 and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Taking into account QPF biases and possible future north shifts, I'm liking 3-5 for Chicago...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Party time for ORD according to NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Phenomenal gif. Not sure it means much at this point, but 0z GEFS kinda tell the tale for here. Dicey. Looks like a 12 hour bullseye just north of here on the 72 hour map. Hot-linked, so clear your cache if you're not getting the updated maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure it means much at this point, but 0z GEFS kinda tell the tale for here. Dicey. Looks like a 12 hour bullseye just north of here on the 72 hour map. Nice shift north with total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nice shift north with total QPF 00zgfsensemblep72096.gif Nice is relative. Regardless, I always pull for IKK after LAF...and that would be pretty nice for them. But I fear they'll be teetering on the edge of badness soon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is definitely starting to feel just like the last storm, at least around here. Difference is with this one it is more a question of a NE vs. SW trend. I wouldn't doubt a continual slow NE trend, but we will see what king Euro has to say. If it shifts north, it will be quite interesting (though bless the hearts of LAF snowlovers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nice shift north with total QPF Definitely... at least here. Nice to see the GEFS on board with the OP here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is definitely starting to feel just like the last storm, at least around here. Difference is with this one it is more a question of a NE vs. SW trend. I wouldn't doubt a continual slow NE trend, but we will see what king Euro has to say. If it shifts north, it will be quite interesting (though bless the hearts of LAF snowlovers). Couldn't keep away huh? I knew you'd back out on your bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Checking the WL coop records, the last time there was more than 0.1" of snow post-March 1 was in 2008. Last 4"+ storm was in 2002. Probably a combination of bad luck and climate change shortening the snowfall season. Handy chart: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Checking the WL coop records, the last time there was more than 0.1" of snow post-March 1 was in 2008. Last 4"+ storm was in 2002. Probably a combination of bad luck and climate change shortening the snowfall season. Handy chart: Nice chart. I could see this becoming the snowiest March since 2002 if the next storm goes right or something else comes along. Another cycle or two will be very helpful but my early guess for this one is something like 1-4" for LAF. Low confidence and I think there's more potential upside than downside (IOW, more likely that we'd exceed 4" than come in under 1") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Cue someone saying, "It's just the NAM". Kind of what I was thinking. NAM and GEM did well with the last system with the shift north. Granted, a shift north helps MBY, but the fact is that the last system did trend north as time went on. Especially within 24hrs. That said, good luck to everyone. We're above average here so you won't see me complaining one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nice chart. I could see this becoming the snowiest March since 2002 if the next storm goes right or something else comes along. Another cycle or two will be very helpful but my early guess for this one is something like 1-4" for LAF. Low confidence and I think there's more potential upside than downside (IOW, more likely that we'd exceed 4" than come in under 1") Yes, I agree that there is potential on the upside with this storm. It's hard to believe that the WL coop is well-below last year's snowfall total. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The doctor is in and it leans away from the northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The doctor is in and it leans away from the northern solution. Hope for us in South Central Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The doctor is in and it leans away from the northern solution. Looks like less QPF here. DVN/BRL to IKK/LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DKB/ARR still end up around .50" liquid but less for ORD/MDW compared to 0z run. Sfc temps progged around 27-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Howd the euro handle the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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