MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Uh oh. Don't blame you though. Looking good up there. Question is...how will Alek spin his south miss call now? Or will he start putting out the all rain caution flags? Decisions, decisions. Give him time. He's got to dig through his anti-weenie playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL What a shift! Welcome back Wisconsinwx!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm calling it. 06z NAM will shift back south to what it was during the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 In all due respect I disagree with this. Speaking with some hydrologists at Mall of America during government days, the proper way way to measure snowfall on your board is to do it every 6 hrs after the start of the event to the end. Of course if you want to record daily snowfall you should always take a measurement at midnight, but during a event, don't clean your board unless it's close to the 6hr interval. That's exactly how I do it. Unless the storm starts between 9-12am (not going to get up really between 3-6am). This last event it was clearing at 6:30pm, 1:30am, then I left it alone for about 7.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sorry. I was in pom-pom and mini skirt role for LAF. If it makes you feel any better, I have a 0.1% chance of seeing a flake from this storm. You've easily got 100-200x more of a chance. lol, you're getting closer to seeing more snow than me. You never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing to note though, this can only shift so far North, with the strong blocking. There is a limitation to the Northward trend. This. The west based block is exceptionally strong in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm just giving you a hard time lol I owe you after most of the winter Optimistic thoughts? That is true. I should have done more bump trolling, but I didn't want to bury you too much. My optimistic thoughts are that I'm optimistic...That should tell you something. You don't want to ruin it, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 lol, you're getting closer to seeing more snow than me. You never know... Yeah, never say never. Except now, when you say never. That vortex over Atlantic Canada is 2009-10 material. Impregnable anti-snow shield for YYZ. And this isn't cheerleading. 0z NAM is too far north. Watch it sink south the next 1-3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am in full weenie mode and I say take the 0Z NAM and lock it in. 9.2" at GRR is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z RGEM at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF snow probabilities still target Chicago, but a slight reduction in "chances" for 8"+ totals. Over 50% for 4"+. Pay no mind to the 12"+ panel, it's goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF snow probabilities still target Chicago, but a slight reduction in "chances" for 8"+ totals. Pay no mind to the 12"+ panel, it's goofy. 3:2 21z SREF sp 75.gif Watch Turtle cash in on this big time. 65" season for Madison in the works if this right. Can't wait to see the NAM HIRES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, never say never. Except now, when you say never. That vortex over Atlantic Canada is 2009-10 material. Impregnable anti-snow shield for YYZ. And this isn't cheerleading. 0z NAM is too far north. Watch it sink south the next 1-3 runs. Maybe so for YYZ. But this one is over for LAF. Sinks south ain't gonna save it. C'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Watch Turtle cash in on this big time. 65" season for Madison in the works if this right. Can't wait to see the NAM HIRES. Watch you cash in on your third 10"+ event in just over a month. I'm calling a Geos jackpot amongst our posters again, a tried and true method at this point. Might be crying uncle UKIE by the time this is over lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I really shouldn't be shocked...as I've been beating the LAF isn't get much of anything drum. But reality sucks sometimes. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how far north this thing really goes...if it does. N IL, S WI, S MI, N IN still in line for a good one I think. *Probably shouldn't be overanalyzing the NAM* but checking our NAM forecast soundings more in depth, the warm layer is not extremely warm (doesn't exceed 3C from what I can tell) but it is pretty thick and low in the column which I think would point toward a rain/freezing rain scenario depending on exact surface temps. In terms of ice potential, a couple things this has going for it is that the bulk of the precip comes in after dark and the precip rates don't get out of hand. Verbatim, the NAM is mostly rain for us but would only take a small amount of cooling to make things more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Watch you cash in on your third 10"+ event in just over a month. I'm calling a Geos jackpot amongst our posters again, a tried and true method at this point. Might be crying uncle UKIE by the time this is over lol. I think the NAM is a bit far north, but I'm not doubting warning criteria snows here. Thinking somewhere through the middle of Chicagoland will cash in big. - Between the southern 1/3rd of Lake Co, and about Naperville. What is Madison's total now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC take on the NAM HPC : IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAMINITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY UNDER AMPLIFIED WITH THE LARGE SCALEFLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...WITH THE NAM HEIGHTS BEING A LITTLETOO LOW WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY WITH THESHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH RAOBS WITH THE SHORTWAVE WERE LIMITED. THISUNDER AMPLIFICATION COULD EXPLAIN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHPOSITION OF THE NAM CLOSED LOW BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 11" at ORD per Bufkit: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Maybe so for YYZ. But this one is over for LAF. Sinks south ain't gonna save it. C'est la vie. lol @ one off NAM run being more determinative than several positive EURO runs. A NAM run that's violating its own trend over the last 2-3 runs of tracking this system further south. It's the emotion of disappointment and frustration talking. BELIEVE ME, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF precipitation type image at 63 hours. Some freezing rain probabilities (bottom right) for northern IN through central OH. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z GFS does not follow the NAM. Instead, it's the same as the 18z GFS. *throws the NAM into the fire* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 *Probably shouldn't be overanalyzing the NAM* but checking our NAM forecast soundings more in depth, the warm layer is not extremely warm (doesn't exceed 3C from what I can tell) but it is pretty thick and low in the column which I think would point toward a rain/freezing rain scenario depending on exact surface temps. In terms of ice potential, a couple things this has going for it is that the bulk of the precip comes in after dark and the precip rates don't get out of hand. Verbatim, the NAM is mostly rain for us but would only take a small amount of cooling to make things more interesting. I know it's about the only thing left, but I remain unimpressed with the freezing rain potential for here. I would think the solid lower level warmth will wash down...in effect, another 33 and rain event. But I guess, if it does track a touch farther south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 RGEM would look pretty good for the LAF crowd. Still very much in the game to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z GFS does not follow the NAM. Instead, it's the same as the 18z GFS. *throws the NAM into the fire* You called it before it hit the time frame...It's coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You called it before it hit the time frame...It's coming north. I was talking about the 6z NAM. As I mentioned in my previous post, the NAM is useless in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Poor LAF crew can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I was talking about the 6z NAM. As I mentioned in my previous post, the NAM is useless in my opinion. Obviously you didn't read what you wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A posible analog just came to mind in fact for this next system... The main difference though is that the upper level low isn't closed off like this one will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z GFS does not follow the NAM. Instead, it's the same as the 18z GFS. *throws the NAM into the fire* ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks wetter on the northern edge! Small baby steps but looking better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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