March 4-6 Winter Storm

[Stebo]

Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on.

[Hoosier]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:20 AM, PatrickSumner said:

Hope for us in South Central Indiana?

Warm early on. Barring something strange, the northern part of the state is going to be better than south for this one.

[Chargers09]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:29 AM, Stebo said:

Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on.

Noticed that as well.

[Thundersnow12]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:29 AM, Stebo said:

Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on.

 

yeah had those big QPF runs for here with the last event about 36/48hrs out then slowly knocked off some QPF as we got closer.

[Harry]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:29 AM, Stebo said:

Euro been kind of cheap with the QPF with this system compared to other models, something to keep an eye on.

 

Has a weaker UL system. Thus why as well this model tracks the UL to TN and then along the NC/SC border.

[Stebo]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:31 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

yeah had those big QPF runs for here with the last event about 36/48hrs out then slowly knocked off some QPF as we got closer.

The thing is those big QPF runs last time verified, it just wasn't all snow.

[Geos]

EURO was quite a bit short here. But that was mainly because the model didn't pick up on lake enhancement.

[Chargers09]

Its hard to bet against the euro but itvhasnt performed well for the past two events correct?

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

  Reveal hidden contents

LSE:

MON 12Z 04-MAR  -7.0    -5.4    1019      71     100    0.01     548     533    
MON 18Z 04-MAR  -4.1    -4.8    1019      74      98    0.10     548     533    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.7    -4.8    1018      79      98    0.04     549     535    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -4.3    -6.4    1020      84      99    0.06     548     533    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -5.8    -8.0    1020      84     100    0.08     546     531    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -5.6   -10.4    1023      79      98    0.19     545     528    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.5   -10.0    1025      78      96    0.08     548     528

MKE:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -6.5    1020      84      94    0.02     548     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -6.7    1021      85      41    0.02     550     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.5    -4.1    1023      87      34    0.01     552     534

MSN:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -3.0    -5.3    1020      69      99    0.01     549     533    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.2    -3.8    1018      77      96    0.03     550     535    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -5.2    -5.1    1020      81      98    0.01     550     534    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -4.4    -4.6    1018      82      97    0.01     549     534    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -3.4    -8.2    1020      79      98    0.07     547     531    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.0    -8.0    1022      85      98    0.12     547     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -5.2    -8.3    1024      83      89    0.01     550     531

RAC:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -6.4    1019      83      94    0.03     547     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.0    -6.5    1020      84      48    0.02     549     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -4.1    1023      86      31    0.01     552     534

CID:

MON 06Z 04-MAR  -4.5    -3.2    1018      78      98    0.01     550     536    
MON 12Z 04-MAR  -4.4    -1.3    1015      85      90    0.11     550     538    
MON 18Z 04-MAR  -2.5    -1.8    1015      84      91    0.03     550     539    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.6    -2.7    1015      84      81    0.00     551     539    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.6    -4.0    1016      85     100    0.01     550     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -3.9    -5.7    1016      90     100    0.15     547     534    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -4.1    -9.0    1019      90      98    0.24     544     529    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.4   -10.2    1023      85      95    0.11     547     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -6.7    -8.5    1026      82      76    0.01     551     531

DVN:

MON 12Z 04-MAR  -4.2    -2.0    1017      75      98    0.04     550     537    
MON 18Z 04-MAR  -1.8    -2.1    1016      76      98    0.08     550     538    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -2.3    1015      80      83    0.00     551     539    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.0    -2.8    1016      79      96    0.00     551     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.6    -3.6    1015      86     100    0.08     548     536    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.2    -6.7    1016      88      98    0.27     545     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.0    -9.7    1020      86      95    0.21     546     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.5    -7.1    1023      80      85    0.01     550     532

STL:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   4.3     1.3    1010      76      61    0.01     554     546    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   2.3     0.7    1010      91      90    0.03     552     543    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.4    -3.5    1012      94      99    0.09     546     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.9   -10.2    1016      81      99    0.18     540     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -9.4    1020      81      86    0.08     548     532

PIA:

MON 12Z 04-MAR  -2.6    -1.5    1017      68      97    0.02     552     538    
MON 18Z 04-MAR   0.0    -1.2    1016      69      96    0.04     552     540    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.1    -1.9    1014      73      77    0.00     553     541    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.4    -1.3    1014      75      83    0.00     552     541    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.8    -1.6    1013      83      98    0.06     550     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.0    -3.6    1013      89      99    0.16     546     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -8.2    1016      89      97    0.26     544     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.1    -7.3    1020      84      85    0.12     549     533

RFD:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -2.6    -4.0    1019      76     100    0.03     550     535    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.3    -2.5    1018      75      98    0.04     551     537    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -3.5    -3.7    1019      78      97    0.01     551     536    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.1    -3.7    1016      76      99    0.01     549     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.3    -5.3    1017      84      99    0.18     547     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.5    -8.1    1019      84      98    0.19     546     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -6.6    1022      83      95    0.03     550     533

DKB:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -2.0    -3.9    1019      72     100    0.02     550     535    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.2    -2.1    1018      73      98    0.04     551     537    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.4    -3.1    1018      75      98    0.01     551     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -3.2    1016      73      99    0.00     550     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.5    -4.0    1016      83     100    0.15     547     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.6    -7.1    1018      86     100    0.21     546     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.0    -5.5    1020      85      96    0.05     549     533

DPA:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.1    -2.1    1018      71      99    0.03     551     537    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -3.2    1018      71      97    0.01     551     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -3.0    1016      70      98    0.00     550     538    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.2    -4.0    1016      79     100    0.10     548     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -7.0    1017      84      99    0.19     546     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -5.8    1019      85      95    0.06     549     534

UGN:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -5.4    1018      73     100    0.02     548     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -6.4    1018      82      99    0.06     547     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -6.4    1019      84      68    0.03     549     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -3.8    1022      87      25    0.01     552     534

ORD:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.9    -2.2    1018      70      99    0.01     551     536    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.0    -3.5    1018      70      97    0.01     551     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -3.2    1016      70      96    0.00     550     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.8    -4.3    1017      76     100    0.06     548     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -7.2    1017      81      99    0.16     547     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -6.4    1018      84      91    0.06     549     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -3.5    1022      86      21    0.01     552     535

MDW:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -2.1    1018      65      99    0.02     551     537    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -3.2    1018      61      97    0.00     551     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -2.9    1016      60      97    0.00     551     538    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.5    -3.5    1016      73     100    0.06     548     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.8    -7.2    1016      82      99    0.18     546     534    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -6.0    1018      84      92    0.08     549     535 

DEC:

MON 12Z 04-MAR  -2.3    -1.1    1018      58      94    0.01     553     539    
MON 18Z 04-MAR   1.4    -0.1    1016      61      92    0.02     554     541    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR   1.4    -1.3    1014      67      68    0.00     554     543    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   1.6     0.3    1013      67      74    0.00     553     543    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.8     0.2    1012      83      79    0.03     551     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.0    -1.5    1011      94      99    0.09     548     539    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -7.4    1013      92      97    0.25     543     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -7.6    1016      89      98    0.27     546     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.8    -3.7    1021      84      93    0.02     553     536 

VPZ:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -0.6    -2.2    1015      62     100    0.03     549     537    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -6.3    1014      79     100    0.13     547     536    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -3.0    1016      81      98    0.11     548     535    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -3.8    1019      87      40    0.01     551     536

LAF:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.4    -1.0    1017      65      99    0.02     553     539    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -1.2    1017      72      96    0.00     553     540    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.8    -1.1    1015      70      91    0.00     552     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.7     0.1    1012      72      99    0.02     550     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.1    -4.5    1011      85     100    0.16     546     537    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -5.1    1012      85     100    0.35     545     536    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -3.2    1017      87      94    0.11     550     537

IND:

 

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.1    -0.4    1017      65      97    0.01     554     540    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   0.2    -0.4    1016      74      89    0.01     554     541    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.0    -0.1    1014      75      89    0.01     553     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.4     1.3    1011      80      96    0.09     551     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   0.8    -0.8    1007      88     100    0.15     546     541    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -4.8    1008      89      99    0.49     542     536    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -4.2    1014      88      97    0.21     549     538    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -3.3    1021      77      35    0.02     556     539

OKK:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.0    -1.7    1018      64      97    0.02     553     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.0    -1.0    1016      58      91    0.00     552     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.0    -0.7    1013      60      99    0.01     551     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.7    -2.2    1010      74     100    0.05     547     539    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.0    -4.3    1011      81      99    0.22     546     537    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.3    -2.4    1015      83      95    0.15     550     537

FWA:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -1.8    1013      69     100    0.02     548     538    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -3.2    1012      75      99    0.07     547     538    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -0.8    -2.1    1015      74      75    0.03     549     537

PAH:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   8.2     6.0    1009      93      88    0.08     558     551    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   8.4     6.2    1007      98      88    0.20     556     550    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   8.4     3.8    1007      98      98    0.17     552     546    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.2    -8.0    1013      82      86    0.20     539     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -0.8    -9.9    1015      79      99    0.08     540     529    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.1    -6.4    1019      74      82    0.06     550     535

DAY:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.8    -1.7    1019      68      96    0.01     553     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -4.2    -1.1    1017      66      85    0.00     554     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.2    -0.6    1014      60      91    0.02     553     541    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   3.1    -0.1    1009      58      99    0.05     550     543    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.7    -0.2    1005      90      97    0.29     546     542    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.3    -3.4    1010      93      96    0.38     547     539    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.6    -4.0    1017      83      69    0.07     553     539

HAO:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.0    -1.1    1018      80      96    0.03     554     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.0    -0.5    1016      73      79    0.00     554     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   3.4     0.7    1013      67      91    0.09     553     543    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.6     1.3    1007      82     100    0.14     549     544    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.5    -1.2    1004      95      85    0.31     543     540    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    1009      95      96    0.16     545     538    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.8    -4.0    1017      80      74    0.13     553     540

CMH:

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6     0.8    1007      79      98    0.20     548     543    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -2.9    1010      91      97    0.38     547     539    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.4    -3.6    1016      78      94    0.10     552     539    
THU 00Z 07-MAR   0.5    -4.0    1021      83      37    0.01     555     538

[Geos]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:37 AM, Chargers09 said:

Its hard to bet against the euro but itvhasnt performed well for the past two events correct?

 

It's been starting out drier than the other models. Last event it trended a bit NW in the end.

[Thundersnow12]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:32 AM, Harry said:

Has a weaker UL system. Thus why as well this model tracks the UL to TN and then along the NC/SC border.

 

yep, weaker ULL on Euro causing further south track. NAM/GFS had H5 low at 72hr near 532dm, Euro has it at 540dm.

[wisconsinwx]

Well I wouldn't bet against King Euro, so early congrats ORD/DVN south and east, especially LAF.  The Euro is not always right, but it wasn't far off last event, and its wetness proved closer to correct than many models, the fact that it's a drier model in general this time around is a red flag to not expect as much.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:40 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

yep, weaker ULL on Euro causing further south track. NAM/GFS had H5 low at 72hr near 532dm, Euro has it at 540dm.

It's all about the strength of the ULL. Further south makes sense if it's weaker. But maybe all the energy hasn't been sampled yet: 

 

 

Nonetheless, -37 at H5 is already a pretty strong wave. Pretty much American vs. foreign guidance tonight. 

[Harry]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:50 AM, RCNYILWX said:

It's all about the strength of the ULL. Further south makes sense if it's weaker. But maybe all the energy hasn't been sampled yet: 

 

 

Nonetheless, -37 at H5 is already a pretty strong wave. Pretty much American vs. foreign guidance tonight. 

 

Based on this i would say the 00z runs missed a bit of it. 4hrs ago ( 02z ) it was still pretty much off shore.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 3/3/2013 at 6:56 AM, Harry said:

Based on this i would say the 00z runs missed a bit of it.

 

Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though.

[Harry]

  On 3/3/2013 at 7:00 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though.

 

Yeah the 06z may be a good starting point for sure. That image i posted is valid 06z so yeah i think they may have a bit of a clearer picture and if not the 12z for sure.

 

This system sorta reminds me of the Feb ( 9-10th i think? ) 2010 storm which brought a massive dumping to the DC/Baltimore/Philly region and even a nice dumping out this way in the GL/MW..

[Thundersnow12]

  On 3/3/2013 at 7:00 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Agreed, so I'd say we have to wait til the 12z cycle for a clearer picture on this this. Still some pretty big differences on the guidance tonight. Hopefully tomorrow answers whether it's a bigger show for I-80 and north or I-80 and south. Maybe we'll start to see some trends with the 06z runs though.

 

Agree with both of you and you can tell by looping WV it wasn't fully or even half sampled at 0z.

 

I should be up for the 6z NAM.

[Stebo]

Yeah based upon the observations RCNYILWX posted plus the current mesoanalysis one would have to believe that the Euro is too weak with the wave at this junction.

[Thundersnow12]

from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm

 

 

[Harry]

  On 3/3/2013 at 7:14 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm

 

020918.png

 

Dropped a foot here as well. Only storm i know of to do that AND dump massive amounts in the Mid Atlantic. Usually if this area gets hit like that  then New England gets it if anyone along the coast. Like this though that as well had a -NAO.

[Geos]

  On 3/3/2013 at 7:14 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm

 

020918.png

 

14.0" for me. LEhS was well pronounced with that system.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 3/3/2013 at 7:14 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

from NARR regarding the Feb 8-10th 2010 storm that Harry mentioned..it dropped around 5" here but over a foot at ORD due to lake enhancement/lake effect.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=209winterstorm

 

020918.png

#5 CIPS Analog for 00z GFS tonight: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg=

[Chicago Storm]

The ECMWF is fairly close to American guidance up until the Missouri River/Dakotas area...After which sig differences are seen.

[Stebo]

The GFS ensembles are similar to the op but a bit more spread out with the QPF toward the South, I would disagree with the lack of a strong Southern cutoff as this will probably have one. Beyond that they like the op are much further North compared to the 18z and 12z runs with respect to the Northern edge of the precipitation.

[The_Global_Warmer]

For STL. the Gem, ukmet, and Euro = late season 3-7 inch snow event vs GFS and NAM = flurries or light snow at best.

[snowlover2]

6z NAM is warmer. Chicago appears to have possible mixing issues.

[Thundersnow12]

6z NAM coming even further north. Talk about a diffence between it and the 0z Euro.

[Stebo]

No stopping the NAM, North she comes.

[Harry]

06z NAM atleast gives us further north some breathing room with the euro still soo far to the south.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 3/3/2013 at 8:34 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

6z NAM coming even further north. Talk about a diffence between it and the 0z Euro.

Still think there's a limit to how north, unless the block is weaker than it's been modeled, though there is good ensemble support for keeping it strong through the time of the event.