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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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I was pleasantly surprised to find snow accumulation still present in my town when I got home at 7pm. I was unable to measure at home at its peek but did find 1.1" or so inches remaining in a protected spot. Based on webcams and PNS reports I guessing my town received about 2" at its peek. Here's a few picks at 7pm.

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Personally, I wish every spring would "delay" its warmup to mid-April.  April 15 is pretty much the last possible date that we could reasonably expect snow to fall in the immediate Philly area (the latest measurable snow that I can remember fell on April 20, 1983) so that is a fine time to move from winter to spring.  Sure, if we've had a "good" winter, then, I would be fine with an early spring.  Otherwise, I prefer to wring out every possible, potential snowflake before I start sweating.  

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I'd rather start my winter in November and have it end in February as opposed to starting in January and having it go into April. November is just a crap month anyway, so why delay the cold and snow? By the beginning of March the sun angle is higher and and brighter, so my thoughts start turning toward warm weather and outdoor activities.

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I'd rather start my winter in November and have it end in February as opposed to starting in January and having it go into April. November is just a crap month anyway, so why delay the cold and snow? By the beginning of March the sun angle is higher and and brighter, so my thoughts start turning toward warm weather and outdoor activities.

Time to put some food seeds in the ground.

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We have the whole first half of April to get through before we can even start talking about any appreciable sustained spring-like temps. We could see a 1 or 2 day surge of positive anomalies ahead of a cold front or something but overall cool. Heck, we could see our last snow threat rather late this year, well into mid April.

Most of the analogs, while they do bring warm periods in the second half of April, are also more volatile than some recent years. It seems like our turn to spring is gradual this year, not 2010-2012 like.

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and just like that GFS is trying to april fools us up another snow event

The models continue to grow more emphatic about this cold blast each day. The ensemble mean trend should be interesting as well as the ECMWF/EPS.

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12z EURO showing cold blast as well Day 7, with a wave in the southwest. Late season interior snowstorm anyone? 

 

Yeah that is a ridiculous cold source and I can't believe it but...

We got ourselves another "winter threat" 4/3-4/5. lol

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0z euro says no

It still has the same idea of taking low pressure from the northern gulf and bringing it up the coast, even though this run only makes it up to the NC Coast before heading east.

 

The 06z GFS takes the low from the northern gulf all the way up to a sub 996 low inside the benchmark by day 9.

 

Nice PNA spike out west and 50/50 low on both models.

 

BTW several of the 00z GEFS members were MECS despite the 00z op GFS attempting to drive the low into the block northeast of the lakes. Good to see it correct on 06z.

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Most of the analogs (not all) have an April snowfall.

It seems like the warmest day, per analogs, is in and around 4/22 +/- 2 days. There were warm dates of course scattered all over the month in each analog but they all agree on that day. It will be interesting to see if 2013 also has one of its warmest April days on 4/22.

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Most of the analogs (not all) have an April snowfall.

It seems like the warmest day, per analogs, is in and around 4/22 +/- 2 days. There were warm dates of course scattered all over the month in each analog but they all agree on that day. It will be interesting to see if 2013 also has one of its warmest April days on 4/22.

 

Here are some select analogs since 1950 and their warmest periods in April for Philadelphia:

1957: 4/21 88 and 4/27 89

1966: 4/21 78

1969: 4/27 86

1973: 4/22 86

1985: 4/19, 4/22 90 ... 82 4/26

1990: 4/23 80 and 4/26-4/28 92-92-90

1994: 4/19 23 and 90 4/27

1995: 4/19 84, 4/22 79 4/27 79

1996: 4/22 82

The analogs overall suggest we warm 4/19-4/22 and again 4/26-28 both of which could easily hold the peak temperature for the month. I just ripped the sensible CPC analogs, by the way, so this is just for fun.

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#climo. Wait, what?

 

lol

So far this week is not as windy as I first thought. But we still have a lot of week to go. IOW, this weather blows.

Oh and it looks like the crushing cold / -AO's last burp is going to ruin the first severe wx threat next week...or at least keep it suppressed. Looks like that forecast is a fail at the moment. The models still offer potential after cold blast. Sigh...

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