BucksCO_PA Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 what is phillys all time record for rainiest june? 10.06 - 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 10.06 - 1938 Thru 5PM climo run, this June is ranked 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 6.79 through 1 AM. 10th wettest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 061113-SPC1.jpg 6.79 through 1 AM. 10th wettest on record. Past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, but a majority of the top ten years had another 6"+ month during the summer after June (either July or August). Total back home yesterday and last night 1.56". Total for June 6.31". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 8.5" since friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I am usually "the SPC/NWS apologist" post-storm day but I thought yesterday's performance overall wasn't up to standard by our local WFO (the SPC did a great job however). For example, zone forecasts did not indicate nor did the AFDs (not entirely relevant) from the night before indicate the potential for flash flooding/heavy rain for Monday morning. It wasn't until the 3am updates that these things were indicated and the zone forecasts still leaned on the afternoon (it was a pretty rough morning for rain). Also, I thought the tornado warning for New Castle was not issued early enough. It will be interesting to see the damage assessment and determine the amount of lead time, but I felt that the TOR could have went out much sooner. Low-level mesocyclones are difficult to assess, yes. But when you've got a history of producing funnel clouds and possible tornadoes under your belt along with the radar signatures...what's the delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ouch. Maybe when the freeze is over, they'll hire you for one of their 3 vacancies. I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not and I don't really care. Look, I'm not trying to be a huge dbag here but I thought it was worthy of discussion. I am hoping someone on their behalf can tell us why certain decisions were made and/or the reasoning. I'm not looking for a witch-hunt or bashing; I am just wondering why these certain things didn't happen WRT flash-flooding and the tornado. Usually Mt Holly is top-notch so perhaps my expectations are the only thing wrong here and their performance was fine...just as likely of a possibility. I did operational forecasting for a few years and I understand how rough it is and I have been dead wrong before too. I have been late with warnings too and I have made wrong decisions, like everyone, at the "moment-of-truth." So, trust me, I completely understand that things go wrong. I think we can all benefit from learning about why our "best" made the decisions they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I am usually "the SPC/NWS apologist" post-storm day but I thought yesterday's performance overall wasn't up to standard by our local WFO (the SPC did a great job however). For example, zone forecasts did not indicate nor did the AFDs (not entirely relevant) from the night before indicate the potential for flash flooding/heavy rain for Monday morning. It wasn't until the 3am updates that these things were indicated and the zone forecasts still leaned on the afternoon (it was a pretty rough morning for rain). Also, I thought the tornado warning for New Castle was not issued early enough. It will be interesting to see the damage assessment and determine the amount of lead time, but I felt that the TOR could have went out much sooner. Low-level mesocyclones are difficult to assess, yes. But when you've got a history of producing funnel clouds and possible tornadoes under your belt along with the radar signatures...what's the delay? I was not working yesterday, but your post comes across somewhat like 'Monday morning quarterbacking". History of producing funnel clouds? Not sure if that information was known and if true was known at the office. The tornadoes in these parts are typically rather weak and quick, which adds a challenge to the warning process. This was the case with yesterday's tornado in New Castle County, Delaware although data from the PHL TDWR showed a circulation present for several scans but it tightened up around 4:46 PM before weakening. I was part of the damage survey team today. It appears there was sporadic straight-line wind damage to start then there was evidence of a tornado (it was rated EF0 with winds of 80 mph). The damage was done to trees (several large ones) and the significant damage to several homes was because of large trees that fell onto them. Tough to pick an exact time of when it occurred, but the time noted in the PNS was mostly based on velocity data ramping up (best couplet). Lead time on these tornadoes is tough. Regarding your comments of the forecast for the flooding that occurred and the AFD's, I really cannot comment because I was not in the office. I will say though that I am somewhat surprised the AFD was not updated sooner yesterday when the tornado watch was issued to reflect this change in potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I was not working yesterday, but your post comes across somewhat like 'Monday morning quarterbacking". History of producing funnel clouds? Not sure if that information was known and if true was known at the office. The tornadoes in these parts are typically rather weak and quick, which adds a challenge to the warning process. This was the case with yesterday's tornado in New Castle County, Delaware although data from the PHL TDWR showed a circulation present for several scans but it tightened up around 4:46 PM before weakening. I was part of the damage survey team today. It appears there was a sporadic straight-line wind damage to start then there was evidence of a tornado (it was rated EF0 with winds of 80 mph). The damage was done to trees (several large ones) and the significant damage to several homes was because of large trees that fell onto them. Tough to pick an exact time of when it occurred, but the time noted in the PNS was based on velocity data ramping up (best couplet). Lead time on these tornadoes is tough. Regarding your comments of the forecast for the flooding that occurred and the AFD's, I really cannot comment because I was not in the office. I will say though that I am somewhat surprised the AFD was not updated sooner yesterday when the tornado watch was issued to reflect this change in potential threat. I saw this pic of you this morning via Twitter; looking good! https://twitter.com/Jerickaduncan/status/344490730674339840/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I saw this pic of you this morning via Twitter; looking good! https://twitter.com/Jerickaduncan/status/344490730674339840/photo/1 Thanks. I believe that is when I was clarifying some things following some comments/questions by some of the reporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Thanks. I believe that is when I was clarifying some things following some comments/questions by some of the reporters. i see larry there to. Who are the other two in the background? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, but a majority of the top ten years had another 6"+ month during the summer after June (either July or August). Total back home yesterday and last night 1.56". Total for June 6.31". and a likely tropical system in either August or September. 1938, 2003, 2006, a few others in there had one come close or hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The storm that produced the tornado yesterday formed very quickly on the heels of a storm that just passed through the same area. It never had a history of producing anything before it reached Glasgow. The storm received an SPS at 4:30 PM EDT near Brantwood, about a couple of miles SE of Elkton. At 4:33, the storm began to develop a mesocyclone on TDWR. It crossed into DE a few minutes later, and a strong low-level circulation was present near Glasgow at 4:39. A TOR could have been issued at this time, but if the TDWR was not being viewed, it would have been easy to overlook, especially with a separate rotating storm near Honey Brook in PA at the same time. The straight-line wind damage then occurred in Glasgow, and the storm reached I-95 near Newark at 4:45, with still a warning-worthy signature. At this time, the TOR was issued, going out at 4:46. The bulletin said "at 4:38, a possible tornado was near Glasgow" which leads me to believe the TDWR-loop was checked, and the warning met realized that the storm had shown good rotation even before it reached Newark. The tornado touched down at 4:47, so it was, in fact, not yet in progress at the warning issuance. I believe the time of touchdown is correct, because the meso was still south of the Robscott Manor damage area at 4:45. The warning forecaster was the same one from the Mt. Ephraim tornado last year, so familiarity with TDWR-tornado detection was not an issue. This storm intensified quickly, and dropped a quick tornado. With other storms to look at in the area, decisions need to be made fast, and I believe it was handled in an orderly manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Kinda odd to armchair QB over a glorified rotating downdraft that was an EF-0 touchdown for what, a few minutes? It's not like it was OKC and a rotating wall cloud that was spitting out EF-1's to EF-3's like pez that the NWS was missing. There have been a number of these that have briefly touched down over the years in this CWA and others that the NWS misses. This had the equivalent winds of a strong straight line episode. It's your classic mid atlantic downburst tornado. you can't call em all perfectly because they spin up quickly and the rotation within them ends nearly as quick as they initiate. NWS did ok with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 i see larry there to. Who are the other two in the background? Andrew is on the left (a student intern at my office from Penn State for the summer) and the other is Dave (New Castle County Skywarn Coordinator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Which has a negative connotation too. To me, anyway. I can tell you're overdue for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 my yard is so freakin wet, geeze. like walking on a sponge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 my yard is so freakin wet, geeze. like walking on a sponge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 By the way, anyone getting too excited about tomorrow's threat around here needs to remember that we've had situations like this before that didn't pan out. Not saying tomorrow will be a bust - just trying to temper everyone's excitement a little. Who can forget this one from 10 years ago? URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ATORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORKCENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIALAKE ONTARIOEFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 700PM EDT....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AREPOSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WESTOF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 15MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK.REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENINGWEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLEWARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I sort of mis-interpreted the statement by HM initially as well, but I figured out what it actually meant or at least what he really meant by it. Knowing him for a long time and working with him first hand he ALWAYS comes to the defense of the NWS/Mt Holly and the job they do. Does this post make me an HM apologist? Thanks and I lol'd at the last sentence. The weather service is under constant scrutiny; and usually, the negative criticism by other mets/the public comes out of not fully understanding something. For example, misunderstanding probabilities is a notorious catalyst for such criticism, where my usual "default defense" comes into play. In the case of Monday, I felt the morning's heavy rainfall / flooding was not handled properly with no indication the night before and that a severe thunderstorm warning at least could have been issued a little sooner for DE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Kinda odd to armchair QB over a glorified rotating downdraft that was an EF-0 touchdown for what, a few minutes? It's not like it was OKC and a rotating wall cloud that was spitting out EF-1's to EF-3's like pez that the NWS was missing. There have been a number of these that have briefly touched down over the years in this CWA and others that the NWS misses. This had the equivalent winds of a strong straight line episode. It's your classic mid atlantic downburst tornado. you can't call em all perfectly because they spin up quickly and the rotation within them ends nearly as quick as they initiate. NWS did ok with it. It's kind of odd to you because I'm not actually acting as "armchair QB". You also seem to be teetering on a jaded view of severe weather in this area and somehow that justifies certain situations. The reality is: the low-level mesocyclones over Maryland before the DE storm, while not particularly strong either, showed us their capabilities for possible tornadoes and the environment was favorable for isolated sig svr. And none of what you said explains why a severe tstorm warning wasn't issued sooner to account for the wind damage potential. The NWS did do okay with the DE storm, given the quick nature to it and I probably wouldn't have mentioned it on the forum if it wasn't for the morning flooding episode (which I think I had more problems with anyway). But at least give me some credit here instead of simply writing me off as armchair QB...clearly, over the years, I think my actions/posts should show that I don't Monday QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I was not working yesterday, but your post comes across somewhat like 'Monday morning quarterbacking". History of producing funnel clouds? Not sure if that information was known and if true was known at the office. The tornadoes in these parts are typically rather weak and quick, which adds a challenge to the warning process. This was the case with yesterday's tornado in New Castle County, Delaware although data from the PHL TDWR showed a circulation present for several scans but it tightened up around 4:46 PM before weakening. I was part of the damage survey team today. It appears there was sporadic straight-line wind damage to start then there was evidence of a tornado (it was rated EF0 with winds of 80 mph). The damage was done to trees (several large ones) and the significant damage to several homes was because of large trees that fell onto them. Tough to pick an exact time of when it occurred, but the time noted in the PNS was mostly based on velocity data ramping up (best couplet). Lead time on these tornadoes is tough. Regarding your comments of the forecast for the flooding that occurred and the AFD's, I really cannot comment because I was not in the office. I will say though that I am somewhat surprised the AFD was not updated sooner yesterday when the tornado watch was issued to reflect this change in potential threat. Again this was not my intent and clearly I should have taken more time to be clear about my thoughts (see my posts above). I know the convection was rapidly changing and that particular cell only went severe in DE. My point was about the earlier mesocyclones in Maryland and what they were capable of doing about a hour or so before this storm. Please see my posts above and thanks for the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Has SPC put out a land hurricane watch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I saw it...it mentions bendy trees Has SPC put out a land hurricane watch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I saw it...it mentions bendy trees Um, I beleive the technical term is tornecho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Feels like a winter storm on some of the other subforums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Has a drought watch been issued yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's raining really hard. Is this a land hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Has a drought watch been issued yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 So pretty bone dry out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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