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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Interesting to note the presence of yet another EML this year leftover from the southern Plains on the soundings this morning. There is still a pocket of mid level lapse rates around 7°C/KM over the Mid Atlantic. Obvious issue is the low CAPE environment but the other factors can make up for that. If you can lift the surface parcels, they will be free to rise beyond the lowest levels enough for supercells/lewp.

Keep expectations low but certainly an interesting environment out there ahead of the FROPA.

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Interesting to note the presence of yet another EML this year leftover from the southern Plains on the soundings this morning. There is still a pocket of mid level lapse rates around 7°C/KM over the Mid Atlantic. Obvious issue is the low CAPE environment but the other factors can make up for that. If you can lift the surface parcels, they will be free to rise beyond the lowest levels enough for supercells/lewp.

Keep expectations low but certainly an interesting environment out there ahead of the FROPA.

Tornado watch just issues to our south and wet DC-Balt corridor

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Mesoscale Discussion 543 < Previous MD mcd0543.gif

      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0612 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...NJ...SERN PA...DE      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 192312Z - 200045Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR   POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.      DISCUSSION...A N/S-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IS ADVANCING EWD AROUND 30 KT...AND FORECAST   TO EXIT UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCHES IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ONLY   MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE   STRENGTH OF THE ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COMBINED   WITH INTENSE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR   ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES INTO THE   EVENING HOURS. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A SPIN UP OR TWO MAY   OCCUR...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME   POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS   NOCTURNAL COOLING YIELDS DECREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD   MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A WW.      ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/19/2013         ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...      LAT...LON   39307573 39827559 41227483 41787443 41827393 41547364               40707382 39807419 38827491 38537518 38637561 39307573    

 

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