Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 just subtract the feb dates of course there are some good ones pre dca like mar 1942 with 11.5" on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 For those that care, it would appear GGEM has continued its idea from last night -- but 132 isnt too friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/what-is-washington-dcs-weather-like-in-march-breaking-down-norms-and-extremes/2012/03/11/gIQAqgDJ7R_blog.html edit: urgh, I see typos in the dates "/" instead of "-" -- oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0z ggem was a big hit too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't think the 1964 storm was one event. The stuff on the 30th came early morning and then there was nothing till late on the 31st. 3/2-3/1960 was a 7.9" at DC as well. That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here. The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out. There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z UKIE is probably a lil too south for our liking (but right where we want to be anyway)... 96 hrs has a 1009 L in S TN 120 1006 L just SE of HSE 144 989 way offshore of HSE due east by about 400 miles h5 only goes to 72 on meteocentre -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif UKMET looks like it wants to be the last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore. That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5. A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here. The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out. There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also. ahh, right. close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 For those that care, it would appear GGEM has continued its idea from last night -- but 132 isnt too friendly GGEM almost wanted to be an apps runner, but redevelops at the last minute as it runs into the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore. That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5. A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking. Can't ignore the trend either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM almost wanted to be an apps runner, but redevelops at the last minute as it runs into the block It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally. 120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 who cares?... Cause even though the model sucks... it at least adds to the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I_nw_g1_EST_2013030112_120.png today's CMC I'll take that. Damn near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore. That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5. A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking. Thing about that is the move that it made. Compare that to the same time from 0z. Big move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 First non-snow sounding I can find @ dca is @ 144. Which doesn't matter anymore of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 March 1958? or did you consider that multiple events? I have 4.8" for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 First non-snow sounding I can find @ dca is @ 144. Which doesn't matter anymore of course. gfs144.JPG The GFS soundings are good. The GGEM is super-wet. It isn't like we shouldn't talk about other models, but we can give them the appropriate weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM for DC would be 6-10" of snow, followed by 6 hours of mix, then another 4-8" on the backside. I know that would just be aweful. For places from IAD to FDK to Westminster it would be 20" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally. 120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it I wrote my interpretation of what it shows for DC...looking at the temp profiles a warm layer wraps in for about 6 hours but it gets cut off really fast as the low occludes then slides east. Huge front and back end dump though. All snow west of a line from IAD to Reisterstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think I like reds better than purples. Better shock factor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM for DC would be 6-10" of snow, followed by 6 hours of mix, then another 4-8" on the backside. I know that would just be aweful. For places from IAD to FDK to Westminster it would be 20" plus. no matter where i lived.....i would take that any day and twice on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Can't ignore the trend either Thing about that is the move that it made. Compare that to the same time from 0z. Big move. Yeah, it moved quite a bit closer to shore (~100 miles) and maybe 50-75 miles north. For phasing situations, the coarser resolution of the ensembles will not handle it as well as the higher resolution Op. Ian has said the same thing by saying the Euro handles phasing better than the GFS. This doesn't mean that the Op is correct and I would not discount the GEFS, but something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM for DC would be 6-10" of snow, followed by 6 hours of mix, then another 4-8" on the backside. I know that would just be aweful. For places from IAD to FDK to Westminster it would be 20" plus. I thought we weren't supposed to talk about soundings at 5 days? hey, this is what I've been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Post March 5th events at IAD >6" 3/9/76 - 6.4" 3/13-14/93 - 14.1" 3/9/99 - 8.9" Actually thought the list might be longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I thought we weren't supposed to talk about soundings at 5 days? hey, this is what I've been waiting for I have never been one to say we shouldnt talk about the details of model runs, as long as we understand its just for fun and to analyze and learn and not to take as an actual forecast, its fine with me. But I guess my point still remains that worrying about a 2-3 degree problem with the boundary layer on the euro (known to have a warm bias at the surface) from 5 days out is a little bit too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The really good agreement considering we're still at 5 days out is a very good sign for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I have never been one to say we shouldnt talk about the details of model runs, as long as we understand its just for fun and to analyze and learn and not to take as an actual forecast, its fine with me. But I guess my point still remains that worrying about a 2-3 degree problem with the boundary layer on the euro (known to have a warm bias at the surface) from 5 days out is a little bit too much. I guess we'll just have to respectfully disagree I'm just a firm believer that we should take the models as they are since the entire column has an effect on the storm's nature, location, intensity, etc. that's not to say that future runs won't change because we all know they will, but I think when discussing model runs we take the facts (so to speak) as they are spit out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The really good agreement considering we're still at 5 days out is a very good sign for this storm. It's just been so long in our yards it's hard to remember that the big ones are usually sniffed and locked pretty early on. This one is no different. Big storm possibility was locked in yesterday and now we get to play the mountain high / valley low game because the details won't be done for days. I suppose it's relatively safe to say that someone along the ec will experience a high impact event. We can only scope and hope it's us and have some fun while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's just been so long in our yards it's hard to remember that the big ones are usually sniffed and locked pretty early on. This one is no different. Big storm possibility was locked in yesterday and now we get to play the mountain high / valley low game because the details won't be done for days. I suppose it's relatively safe to say that someone along the ec will experience a high impact event. We can only scope and hope it's us and have some fun while it lasts. A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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