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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I don't think the 1964 storm was one event. The stuff on the 30th came early morning and then there was nothing till late on the 31st.

 

3/2-3/1960 was a 7.9" at DC as well.

 

That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here.

 

The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out.  There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also.

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12z UKIE is probably a lil too south for our liking (but right where we want to be anyway)...

 

96 hrs has a 1009 L in S TN

120 1006 L just SE of HSE 

144 989 way offshore of HSE due east by about 400 miles

 

h5 only goes to 72 on meteocentre -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif

UKMET looks like it wants to be the last to the party. 

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GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore.  That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5.  A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking.  

 

12zgfsensemblep12132.gif

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That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here.

 

The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out.  There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also.

ahh, right. close enough. :P

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GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore.  That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5.  A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking.  

Can't ignore the trend either

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GGEM almost wanted to be an apps runner, but redevelops at the last minute as it runs into the block

 

It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally.  120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it

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GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore.  That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5.  A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking.  

 

12zgfsensemblep12132.gif

Thing about that is the move that it made.  Compare that to the same time from 0z.  Big move.

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It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally.  120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it

I wrote my interpretation of what it shows for DC...looking at the temp profiles a warm layer wraps in for about 6 hours but it gets cut off really fast as the low occludes then slides east.  Huge front and back end dump though.  All snow west of a line from IAD to Reisterstown

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GGEM for DC would be 6-10" of snow, followed by 6 hours of mix, then another 4-8" on the backside.  I know that would just be aweful.  For places from IAD to FDK to Westminster it would be 20" plus. 

 

 

no matter where i lived.....i would take that any day and twice on sunday

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Can't ignore the trend either

 

 

Thing about that is the move that it made.  Compare that to the same time from 0z.  Big move.

Yeah, it moved quite a bit closer to shore (~100 miles) and maybe 50-75 miles north.  

 

For phasing situations, the coarser resolution of the ensembles will not handle it as well as the higher resolution Op.  Ian has said the same thing by saying the Euro handles phasing better than the GFS.  This doesn't mean that the Op is correct and I would not discount the GEFS, but something to keep in mind.  

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GGEM for DC would be 6-10" of snow, followed by 6 hours of mix, then another 4-8" on the backside.  I know that would just be aweful.  For places from IAD to FDK to Westminster it would be 20" plus. 

I thought we weren't supposed to talk about soundings at 5 days?   ;)

hey, this is what I've been waiting for

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I thought we weren't supposed to talk about soundings at 5 days?   ;)

hey, this is what I've been waiting for

I have never been one to say we shouldnt talk about the details of model runs, as long as we understand its just for fun and to analyze and learn and not to take as an actual forecast, its fine with me.  But I guess my point still remains that worrying about a 2-3 degree problem with the boundary layer on the euro (known to have a warm bias at the surface) from 5 days out is a little bit too much. 

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I have never been one to say we shouldnt talk about the details of model runs, as long as we understand its just for fun and to analyze and learn and not to take as an actual forecast, its fine with me.  But I guess my point still remains that worrying about a 2-3 degree problem with the boundary layer on the euro (known to have a warm bias at the surface) from 5 days out is a little bit too much. 

I guess we'll just have to respectfully disagree

I'm just a firm believer that we should take the models as they are since the entire column has an effect on the storm's nature, location, intensity, etc.

that's not to say that future runs won't change because we all know they will, but I think when discussing model runs we take the facts (so to speak) as they are spit out

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The really good agreement considering we're still at 5 days out is a very good sign for this storm.

 

It's just been so long in our yards it's hard to remember that the big ones are usually sniffed and locked pretty early on. This one is no different. Big storm possibility was locked in yesterday and now we get to play the mountain high / valley low game because the details won't be done for days. I suppose it's relatively safe to say that someone along the ec will experience a high impact event. We can only scope and hope it's us and have some fun while it lasts. 

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It's just been so long in our yards it's hard to remember that the big ones are usually sniffed and locked pretty early on. This one is no different. Big storm possibility was locked in yesterday and now we get to play the mountain high / valley low game because the details won't be done for days. I suppose it's relatively safe to say that someone along the ec will experience a high impact event. We can only scope and hope it's us and have some fun while it lasts. 

A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right?

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