SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How do surface winds look? Does it bomb out fast enough to get us some? Edit: Looks like 10 knots at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's hope the low over the lakes stays weak. It's a very delicate balance as ***** 2001 taught us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How do surface winds look? Does it bomb out fast enough to get us some? Edit: Looks like 10 knots at 132 hours. Great website is instantweathermaps.com. MNTransplant clued me into it. Yes, 20-30mph for the DC-Balt corridor, higher nearer the coast. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030112&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 road trip to my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that Out this way, I have a total of about 9" for the season. If this storm were to work out for us, and we somehow got 12" out here, 21" total for the season wouldn't be bad. Still below normal, but it would be a huge improvement over last winter. However, I would be happy to take less out here, if you guys in the metro could also have a good storm with mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How many times has there been a post mar 5 snowstorm greater than 6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Now to wait for the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS lost the 75 degree days it was showing in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what are the chances of a March 2001 type bust? Highly unlikely right with the vort dropping so far to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How many times has there been a post mar 5 snowstorm greater than 6"? At the DCA airport location - I think this is the full list 3-9-1999 - 8.4" 3-12/13-1993 - 6.6" 3/30-4/1/1964 - 6.2" (assuming this was one storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 dca sounding @ 108 (precip onset+/-). Should cool quick to near freezing with dews in the 20's. . Definitely a snow sounding (that's obvious of course) Edit: 114 has surface @ 33+/-. Considering time of day dca would start off on the right foot. Something that's been elusive...and may still be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Would an earlier phase help give us a more potent storm. I figure that would draw in more to the coast. I'm sure many don't want that, but, like Ian said, snow is IMBY. Closer to the coast is beneficial to me. Truth is, I just hope someone locally gets it good. I can always get a hotel room. earlier phase would reduce the chances of this pulling a typical miller b screw job to our northeast. Yes if it phases too early we run the risk of an inland runner, but right now, given the trough axis, the block, and the tendancy for phases to happen slower rather then faster, I would rather be playing with that fire then the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 today's CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z UKIE is probably a lil too south for our liking (but right where we want to be anyway)... 96 hrs has a 1009 L in S TN 120 1006 L just SE of HSE 144 989 way offshore of HSE due east by about 400 miles h5 only goes to 72 on meteocentre -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At the DCA airport location - I think this is the full list 3-9-1999 - 8.4" 3-12/13-1993 - 6.6" 3/30-4/1/1964 - 6.2" (assuming this was one storm) I don't think the 1964 storm was one event. The stuff on the 30th came early morning and then there was nothing till late on the 31st. 3/2-3/1960 was a 7.9" at DC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 just subtract the feb dates of course there are some good ones pre dca like mar 1942 with 11.5" on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 For those that care, it would appear GGEM has continued its idea from last night -- but 132 isnt too friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/what-is-washington-dcs-weather-like-in-march-breaking-down-norms-and-extremes/2012/03/11/gIQAqgDJ7R_blog.html edit: urgh, I see typos in the dates "/" instead of "-" -- oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0z ggem was a big hit too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't think the 1964 storm was one event. The stuff on the 30th came early morning and then there was nothing till late on the 31st. 3/2-3/1960 was a 7.9" at DC as well. That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here. The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out. There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z UKIE is probably a lil too south for our liking (but right where we want to be anyway)... 96 hrs has a 1009 L in S TN 120 1006 L just SE of HSE 144 989 way offshore of HSE due east by about 400 miles h5 only goes to 72 on meteocentre -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif UKMET looks like it wants to be the last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore. That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5. A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That makes sense, we have so few 3 day events here. The question was post-Mar 5th, so I left 1960 out. There are a couple of other near misses (5.8" or so) in the span also. ahh, right. close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 For those that care, it would appear GGEM has continued its idea from last night -- but 132 isnt too friendly GGEM almost wanted to be an apps runner, but redevelops at the last minute as it runs into the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 climo_mar_top_snow.gif http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/what-is-washington-dcs-weather-like-in-march-breaking-down-norms-and-extremes/2012/03/11/gIQAqgDJ7R_blog.html edit: urgh, I see typos in the dates "/" instead of "-" -- oops. March 1958? or did you consider that multiple events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEFS is about 200 miles farther south at 132 and a bit farther offshore. That's still pretty reasonable concurrence at D5. A Euro ensemble/GFS ensemble blend is probably the safe forecast right now and that still is probably a good one for us in regards to streak-breaking. Can't ignore the trend either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM almost wanted to be an apps runner, but redevelops at the last minute as it runs into the block It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally. 120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like a snow to rain to heavy snow event literally. 120 is snow... 132 would probably be rain with that position for us... but then as the low gets captured by the h5 it stalls and moves slowly east bringing the snow back east with it who cares?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 who cares?... Cause even though the model sucks... it at least adds to the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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