CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that I bet DC would do well in the comma head of that happened. Good luck down there. Hope you guys get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that All of us should follow your example here - I am just looking to break the 2 inch streak. Got to like these trends!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that If we don't get to climo snow I'll be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not that we should be analyzing profiles yet, but as long as we are good from say 975 down, I am not that concerned about the BL...If it snows hard that 35F becomes 33 and it is all about rates....I dont really care if there is a warm nose at 800 or 750...if it sleets so be it Profile is good at the peak even if the surface is a tad warm. It isn't until it winds down that the upper levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not that we should be analyzing profiles yet, but as long as we are good from say 975 down, I am not that concerned about the BL...If it snows hard that 35F becomes 33 and it is all about rates....I dont really care if there is a warm nose at 800 or 750...if it sleets so be it Agree. With our positioning on the NW flank, I'd be surprised if we get a warm nose at 800ish. BL might be in the low-mid 30s, but your point about rates is a good one. As I mentioned before, starting at 0z on the 6th would be ideal as we wouldn't "waste" the first 0.1-0.2" of QPF on melty flurries/drizzle. Dynamics really kick in around sunrise on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 finally! now all we have to do is hold this solution for 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 jesus...agonizingly close...much better than 6z No this run of the GFS is exactly what I want to see right now. The gfs has the phase, its splitting the h5 low to our north and phasing it in like the euro has for a while now, its just diving the southern vort way too far south before pulling it north. That delas the full phase and bombing of the low. This is normal gfs bs crap now, and it will correct and already is correcting run to run. I like the GFS being exactly where it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 At what point does the energy come on shore? I think somebody posted something about Pacific flights for more data? I was the one who mentioned them earlier, but someone mentioned them yesterday. I don't know if they've been run, but we are seeing massive changes to the GFS in the past 18 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Based on instantweathermaps, freezing level is at or very near 975mb for the duration. That's snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 please do try to keep the bantery stuff in the other thread. no squashing fun but this is supposed to be a thread where people who dont spend the whole day here can get a quick read etc. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39538-rockin-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 No this run of the GFS is exactly what I want to see right now. The gfs has the phase, its splitting the h5 low to our north and phasing it in like the euro has for a while now, its just diving the southern vort way too far south before pulling it north. That delas the full phase and bombing of the low. This is normal gfs bs crap now, and it will correct and already is correcting run to run. I like the GFS being exactly where it is right now. Would an earlier phase help give us a more potent storm. I figure that would draw in more to the coast. I'm sure many don't want that, but, like Ian said, snow is IMBY. Closer to the coast is beneficial to me. Truth is, I just hope someone locally gets it good. I can always get a hotel room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Whats the total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback. There is always the risk of something going wrong, but we have all the major indices and telleconnectors saying "yes" on this one, there is reason to believe this could or even should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Purple just touches DC for total QPF, so 1.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Whats the total qpf? 1" contour is roughly north-south by IAD. 2" north-south on the west shore of the Chessy. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030112&time=96&var=APCPI&hour=147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How do surface winds look? Does it bomb out fast enough to get us some? Edit: Looks like 10 knots at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's hope the low over the lakes stays weak. It's a very delicate balance as ***** 2001 taught us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How do surface winds look? Does it bomb out fast enough to get us some? Edit: Looks like 10 knots at 132 hours. Great website is instantweathermaps.com. MNTransplant clued me into it. Yes, 20-30mph for the DC-Balt corridor, higher nearer the coast. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030112&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 road trip to my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that Out this way, I have a total of about 9" for the season. If this storm were to work out for us, and we somehow got 12" out here, 21" total for the season wouldn't be bad. Still below normal, but it would be a huge improvement over last winter. However, I would be happy to take less out here, if you guys in the metro could also have a good storm with mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How many times has there been a post mar 5 snowstorm greater than 6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Now to wait for the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS lost the 75 degree days it was showing in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what are the chances of a March 2001 type bust? Highly unlikely right with the vort dropping so far to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How many times has there been a post mar 5 snowstorm greater than 6"? At the DCA airport location - I think this is the full list 3-9-1999 - 8.4" 3-12/13-1993 - 6.6" 3/30-4/1/1964 - 6.2" (assuming this was one storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 dca sounding @ 108 (precip onset+/-). Should cool quick to near freezing with dews in the 20's. . Definitely a snow sounding (that's obvious of course) Edit: 114 has surface @ 33+/-. Considering time of day dca would start off on the right foot. Something that's been elusive...and may still be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Would an earlier phase help give us a more potent storm. I figure that would draw in more to the coast. I'm sure many don't want that, but, like Ian said, snow is IMBY. Closer to the coast is beneficial to me. Truth is, I just hope someone locally gets it good. I can always get a hotel room. earlier phase would reduce the chances of this pulling a typical miller b screw job to our northeast. Yes if it phases too early we run the risk of an inland runner, but right now, given the trough axis, the block, and the tendancy for phases to happen slower rather then faster, I would rather be playing with that fire then the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 today's CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z UKIE is probably a lil too south for our liking (but right where we want to be anyway)... 96 hrs has a 1009 L in S TN 120 1006 L just SE of HSE 144 989 way offshore of HSE due east by about 400 miles h5 only goes to 72 on meteocentre -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At the DCA airport location - I think this is the full list 3-9-1999 - 8.4" 3-12/13-1993 - 6.6" 3/30-4/1/1964 - 6.2" (assuming this was one storm) I don't think the 1964 storm was one event. The stuff on the 30th came early morning and then there was nothing till late on the 31st. 3/2-3/1960 was a 7.9" at DC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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