Inudaw Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Northern Va and points north along I-95 are the good spots for this run. Down toward Richmond a good portion of this would be rain... would change to snow as it wraps up.. but would not amount to much. Wish it was a bit colder! :-p Too much detail at this range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wraps up so much we have mixing problems at 141. Philly gets clobbered with QPF, but they have a worse temp profile than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 36 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 850 0C line creeps inward as the low stacks and fills. Just a complete stall offshore. Naso good for coastal sections and NYC/Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yes...ideally and this is obvious wishcasting, in order to get a serious event, we want the ULL to take SE track and then get pulled north into the eastern TN valley...and then start drifting E/NE...I'm not sure this is an option though No its probably not because of the trough axis, this is going to still be diving in until a little later then we would want ideally, that means we need the phase to happen on time and "clean" so to speak. If its a messy drawn out phase we probably end up on the outside watching Philly northeast have all the fun. March tends to be the time when these things can really amp quickly and the block would argue for a more south solution, so we have reasons to believe the GGEM/Euro solution over the GFS at this point, plus the GFS is just coming around to the idea of a phase in general, but I NEVER feel safe in our area when it comes down to a late developing coastal system that needs to amplify in time. That is a very risky proposition for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Purpled with a global inside of 6 days. Good God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 But that's a great track to be on. W-NW side of the low. I wouldn't worry too much yet about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Purpled with a global inside of 6 days. Good God. phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 With the GFS now coming into agreement with the GGEM, Euro, and NOGAPS... Yes, there is still time for change, and there likely will be some. But it is looking really, really good right now; better than anything else this winter. I think it's time to be ready for a storm of some type, and to be ready for winter to go out with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At what point does the energy come on shore? I think somebody posted something about Pacific flights for more data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback. I kept thinking we could get a crawler yesterday but I had to convince myself to believe that I actually knew enough about what i was seeing at h5 before i made the post. Heh. Next week is an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 But that's a great track to be on. W-NW side of the low. I wouldn't worry too much yet about mixing. I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback. Perhaps, areas farther east have more precip but also a more questionable temp profile. Whoever's on the happy side of the freezing line, but closest to it, wins in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Northern Va and points north along I-95 are the good spots for this run. Down toward Richmond a good portion of this would be rain... would change to snow as it wraps up.. but would not amount to much. Wish it was a bit colder! :-p Too much detail at this range though. Yeah right now this event is looking like a bit of a screwjob for most near out latitude. Hopefully it trends colder but even if it doesn't at least some of the MA will break our current streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that I bet DC would do well in the comma head of that happened. Good luck down there. Hope you guys get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that All of us should follow your example here - I am just looking to break the 2 inch streak. Got to like these trends!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Perhaps, areas farther east have more precip but also a more questionable temp profile. Whoever's on the happy side of the freezing line, but closest to it, wins in this situation. Not that we should be analyzing profiles yet, but as long as we are good from say 975 down, I am not that concerned about the BL...If it snows hard that 35F becomes 33 and it is all about rates....I dont really care if there is a warm nose at 800 or 750...if it sleets so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think us in the cities accept we will likely have preip-type problem...thats ok...I want a storm...If I get 3" and IAD gets 12", I am fine with that If we don't get to climo snow I'll be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not that we should be analyzing profiles yet, but as long as we are good from say 975 down, I am not that concerned about the BL...If it snows hard that 35F becomes 33 and it is all about rates....I dont really care if there is a warm nose at 800 or 750...if it sleets so be it Profile is good at the peak even if the surface is a tad warm. It isn't until it winds down that the upper levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not that we should be analyzing profiles yet, but as long as we are good from say 975 down, I am not that concerned about the BL...If it snows hard that 35F becomes 33 and it is all about rates....I dont really care if there is a warm nose at 800 or 750...if it sleets so be it Agree. With our positioning on the NW flank, I'd be surprised if we get a warm nose at 800ish. BL might be in the low-mid 30s, but your point about rates is a good one. As I mentioned before, starting at 0z on the 6th would be ideal as we wouldn't "waste" the first 0.1-0.2" of QPF on melty flurries/drizzle. Dynamics really kick in around sunrise on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 finally! now all we have to do is hold this solution for 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 jesus...agonizingly close...much better than 6z No this run of the GFS is exactly what I want to see right now. The gfs has the phase, its splitting the h5 low to our north and phasing it in like the euro has for a while now, its just diving the southern vort way too far south before pulling it north. That delas the full phase and bombing of the low. This is normal gfs bs crap now, and it will correct and already is correcting run to run. I like the GFS being exactly where it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 At what point does the energy come on shore? I think somebody posted something about Pacific flights for more data? I was the one who mentioned them earlier, but someone mentioned them yesterday. I don't know if they've been run, but we are seeing massive changes to the GFS in the past 18 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Based on instantweathermaps, freezing level is at or very near 975mb for the duration. That's snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 please do try to keep the bantery stuff in the other thread. no squashing fun but this is supposed to be a thread where people who dont spend the whole day here can get a quick read etc. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39538-rockin-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 No this run of the GFS is exactly what I want to see right now. The gfs has the phase, its splitting the h5 low to our north and phasing it in like the euro has for a while now, its just diving the southern vort way too far south before pulling it north. That delas the full phase and bombing of the low. This is normal gfs bs crap now, and it will correct and already is correcting run to run. I like the GFS being exactly where it is right now. Would an earlier phase help give us a more potent storm. I figure that would draw in more to the coast. I'm sure many don't want that, but, like Ian said, snow is IMBY. Closer to the coast is beneficial to me. Truth is, I just hope someone locally gets it good. I can always get a hotel room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Whats the total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback. There is always the risk of something going wrong, but we have all the major indices and telleconnectors saying "yes" on this one, there is reason to believe this could or even should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Purple just touches DC for total QPF, so 1.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Whats the total qpf? 1" contour is roughly north-south by IAD. 2" north-south on the west shore of the Chessy. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030112&time=96&var=APCPI&hour=147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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