March Med/Long Range Disco

[EastCoast NPZ]

I vaguely remember hunting Easter eggs indoors one year as young child due to snow on the ground.  I don't have a clue what year that was, how much snow, nor if it was snowing or just still on the ground.  Therefore, I don't recall if I've seen accumulating snow in April.  I do recall a winter storm watch for heavy snow in April that completely busted (not a flake).  This would have been between '77 and '79. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

From just over a year ago on Amwx. Mother of all spring storms as the Supertstorm was technically a winter storm.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31884-april-4-1987-snow/

[EastCoast NPZ]

From just over a year ago on Amwx. Mother of all spring storms as the Supertstorm was technically a winter storm.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31884-april-4-1987-snow/

 

good grief, that's an amazing storm.  was totally unaware.  i don't recall any meaningful snow in this area from that. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

good grief, that's an amazing storm. was totally unaware. i don't recall any meaningful snow in this area from that.

Highly elevation dependent. I'm guessing the Skyline Drive or maybe Davis areas were in on it.

[vinylfreak89]

just saw the 12z euro. The thing that has me interested is its an actual real southern stream shortwave. There is of course a great lakes low and assocated shortwave to screw things up, but interesting to watch nonetheless. 

[WxUSAF]

Squall line late Monday-early Tuesday? Looks like a strong cold front.  Monday may get into the 60s if we get some sun.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

anything shown for 4/3 - 4/4 on the 0z Euro?

[stormtracker]

anything shown for 4/3 - 4/4 on the 0z Euro?

3 to 6 inches next Friday.

 

Book it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Squall line late Monday-early Tuesday? Looks like a strong cold front.  Monday may get into the 60s if we get some sun.  

 

Sure doesn't look like any quick moves toward warmth.  Maybe a couple of days this weekend/Monday, but then back to below normal it seems.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 to 6 inches next Friday.

 

Book it.

 

There seems to be the potential of a strong SE storm in the long range.  The GFS members hint at it, and it looks like the Euro op flirts with it.  But, my thoughts on snow in that time frame are the same as yesterday........

 

Please, no.

[Ian]

3 to 6 inches next Friday.

 

Book it.

 

actually the 0z was warmer and less stormy locally.. storm east.. which is prob why no one mentioned it.

 

the ens mean doesnt look like a snowstorm either.  only snow weenies (and reed timmer) talk about d7+ modeling like it means much.

[Wonderdog]

Rain to snow event next Tuesday morning?

[Bob Chill]

Rain to snow event next Tuesday morning?

Our batting average on secondary waves on cold fronts is almost zero. And that's for precip let alone snow.

[Wonderdog]

On April 2, the AO gets more negative; the PNA tries to rise; and the NAO gets somewhat more negative. Coupled with the passage of a cold front and a developing ridge out west, can we squeeze out a coastal?

[mattie g]

On April 2, the AO gets more negative; the PNA tries to rise; and the NAO gets somewhat more negative. Coupled with the passage of a cold front and a developing ridge out west, can we squeeze out a coastal?

Let's hope not.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Let's hope not.

Don't know about any coastals but if the s word ends up back in the forecasts I won't be shocked.

[Bob Chill]

Euro drops .21 at iad overnight Monday with surface temps around 34. 6z gfs is similar in evolution and precip totals. Gets chilly again after that but the lr is starting to look seasonal.

[clueless]

Euro drops .21 at iad overnight Monday with surface temps around 34. 6z gfs is similar in evolution and precip totals. Gets chilly again after that but the lr is starting to look seasonal.

I don't like my baseball mixed with snow. Is there any effing chance we could get a string of mid 60's to 70 this Spring without jumping straight to 80?

[nj2va]

I don't like my baseball mixed with snow. Is there any effing chance we could get a string of mid 60's to 70 this Spring without jumping straight to 80?

 

That's my "worry" - we go from below average straight into 80s in late April and never look back.  I like the heat during the summer.  A seasonal April and May would be great, especially as we get into Nats baseball!

[ravensrule]

That's my "worry" - we go from below average straight into 80s in late April and never look back.  I like the heat during the summer.  A seasonal April and May would be great, especially as we get into Nats  Orioles baseball!

Fixed.

[Bob Chill]

We may set a modern record -ao for March. Lowest value in the monthly table is 1962 @ -2.848. Next lowest is -2.522 in 1958.

I pulled various combinations of years with -2.0 or lower in March or -1.0 Feb + -1.5 or lower March and there is a mixed signal for April overall but most everything points towards near normal temps. Nothing significantly below or above.

Going forward in various analog years most of the summers were simply seasonal. Most combinations produced JJA anoms between 0 to +1. So slightly above normal.

This are just darts though. I was simply taking into consideration a potential record -ao for the months and looking forward a bit. I've done a lot of number crunching with the AO last couple years and it's pretty clear that when it's anomalous in one direction or another, it can be a good indicator of where we are going over the medium term temp wise.

My WAG for April is simply seasonal temps with an obvious cool start. No flip to big SE ridge. Storm pattern looks to be progressive, fast, with alternating (and short lived) periods of waa in front of cold fronts but a stable ec trough is unlikely. Especially during the second half of the month. Alternating periods of aob and aob with a hedge towards slightly cooler. Seems fair. I highly doubt it will be anything like March with neg departures. Next weeks potential cool shot may be the last of the big neg departures.

One interesting thing of note, 58 and 62 had some nice Junes in the temp department. 58 was -2 and 62 was normal to slightly below. July of 62 was very cool. Maybe builds a tiny case that we may actually have a pleasant June or July? Wouldn't surprise me but I'm putting money away now for my summer electric bills.

[mattie g]

That's my "worry" - we go from below average straight into 80s in late April and never look back.  I like the heat during the summer.  A seasonal April and May would be great, especially as we get into Nats baseball the MLS season!

 

I'll fix it, too.

[WxUSAF]

One interesting thing of note, 58 and 62 had some nice Junes in the temp department. 58 was -2 and 62 was normal to slightly below. July of 62 was very cool. Maybe builds a tiny case that we may actually have a pleasant June or July? Wouldn't surprise me but I'm putting money away now for my summer electric bills.

Our Junes have been the oppressive the last 3 years, just going straight into the dog dayz way too early.  June is a really nice month around here when it's near normal or slightly below normal.  

[WxUSAF]

April 11-12th is a slow-moving coastal on the 6z GFS.  Temps are a bit warm, but we have time for that.  Who's in?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Buehler?  

[Bob Chill]

Our Junes have been the oppressive the last 3 years, just going straight into the dog dayz way too early. June is a really nice month around here when it's near normal or slightly below normal.

One this we have going for us right now for May is a really really slow start to warming the bay and ocean. Yea, this can burn us with marine layer stuff but it can also keep the quick flip to heat at bay.

Mostly anecdotal but early heat seems to help perpetuate itself as of late. If we can get into June without big heat stretches I don't think we blaze in July either.

[Deck Pic]

We may set a modern record -ao for March. Lowest value in the monthly table is 1962 @ -2.848. Next lowest is -2.522 in 1958.

I pulled various combinations of years with -2.0 or lower in March or -1.0 Feb + -1.5 or lower March and there is a mixed signal for April overall but most everything points towards near normal temps. Nothing significantly below or above.

Going forward in various analog years most of the summers were simply seasonal. Most combinations produced JJA anoms between 0 to +1. So slightly above normal.

This are just darts though. I was simply taking into consideration a potential record -ao for the months and looking forward a bit. I've done a lot of number crunching with the AO last couple years and it's pretty clear that when it's anomalous in one direction or another, it can be a good indicator of where we are going over the medium term temp wise.

My WAG for April is simply seasonal temps with an obvious cool start. No flip to big SE ridge. Storm pattern looks to be progressive, fast, with alternating (and short lived) periods of waa in front of cold fronts but a stable ec trough is unlikely. Especially during the second half of the month. Alternating periods of aob and aob with a hedge towards slightly cooler. Seems fair. I highly doubt it will be anything like March with neg departures. Next weeks potential cool shot may be the last of the big neg departures.

One interesting thing of note, 58 and 62 had some nice Junes in the temp department. 58 was -2 and 62 was normal to slightly below. July of 62 was very cool. Maybe builds a tiny case that we may actually have a pleasant June or July? Wouldn't surprise me but I'm putting money away now for my summer electric bills.

 

 

from the other thread

 

 

Since 1945, there have been 2 months where we did not have a 70 degree reading in either February or March

 

1958 - No 70 degree reading from November 20th to  April 13th

1993 - No 70 degree reading from November 24th to April 14th

 

Can we get to April 15th?

 

 

1958 had a very warm April 15-30...1962 was coolish until 4/20 and then we blazed the last 10 days (pun intended)....1993 was cool/cold wire to wire

[midatlanticweather]

April 11-12th is a slow-moving coastal on the 6z GFS.  Temps are a bit warm, but we have time for that.  Who's in?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Buehler?  

 

LOL - Not really!

[Deck Pic]

One this we have going for us right now for May is a really really slow start to warming the bay and ocean. Yea, this can burn us with marine layer stuff but it can also keep the quick flip to heat at bay.

Mostly anecdotal but early heat seems to help perpetuate itself as of late. If we can get into June without big heat stretches I don't think we blaze in July either.

 

As I have mentioned a few times recently, May usually sucks here....It is our wettest month and it is hard to put together stretches of low dew point 68-74 degree days....we usually blaze, rain or get marined....a 3-4 day crisp sunny stretch is a win...I don't mind the 65-70 degree marine layer days..but big fat popping -5 departure blus sky 74/40 days are too few and far between

[Bob Chill]

As I have mentioned a few times recently, May usually sucks here....It is our wettest month and it is hard to put together stretches of low dew point 68-74 degree days....we usually blaze, rain or get marined....a 3-4 day crisp sunny stretch is a win...I don't mind the 65-70 degree marine layer days..but big fat popping -5 departure blus sky 74/40 days are too few and far between

Yea, it's usually a humid month whether it's cold or warm. Seems the pattern typically supports surface flow from N-E-S more often than not. Maybe we can squeeze in some upper and lower level NW-SW flow this year. Compressional heating on sunny days will be warm but at least nice and dry. Kinda doubt it. Doesn't seem to set up like that much until JJ timeframe. By then it's just plain hot though.

[Ian]

Sign me up for 1962 baby