Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 woo warm my wild ass guess is we are at or above for April and May, but that isnt exactly a bold prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It has been but it was only "winter cold" for a couple weeks. I've been out almost every weekend playing disc golf or hiking with the dog. I enjoy all seasons and as much as I post about it, snow is just a fun hobby. If it isn't cold and snowy I'm outside enjoying the weather. Even when it's below freezing during the day it's not that big of a deal. 40's are warmish. I fish a lot on the bay during trophy season and the cooler the better. I root for cool cloudy aprils but i keep it to myself so the wine and cheese party doesn't break out. I like extended cool way way more than extended heat. Being in the sun when it's 95 and thick still air is the absolute worst. My least favorite condition by a mile. Those conditions keep me indoors. Not anything else. Sounds like you and I have something in common, I hate heat, especially day after day after day of HHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 gorgeous pic! Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is the 6z gfs' version of April 7th. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is the 6z gfs' version of April 7th. Any takers? april7.PNG Should I start a thread now or wait till 12z? One thing that concerns me though is the April sun angle. At that point in the season, humans aren't able to stand out in the sun for more than 5-10 minutes at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Should I start a thread now or wait till 12z? One thing that concerns me though is the April sun angle. At that point in the season, humans aren't able to stand out in the sun for more than 5-10 minutes at a time. that can be a productive period in a proper pattern for elevated areas well to the north and west...especially say above 1500'....If the models do show a storm, I wonder if people will realize that we aren't "all in it together" and that there is a difference between say Arlington VA and Skyline drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z gfs has the apr 3rd threat. Probably the first time in months I've seen an ull enter the country in so cal and traverse the gulf coast. This year has been dominated by ns vorts entering the pac nw from door to door. Even when we had a period of split flow it didn't make a difference. Probably won't be there in a few hours and even if it did go down that way it's getting too late to even track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z gfs has the apr 3rd threat. Probably the first time in months I've seen an ull enter the country in so cal and traverse the gulf coast. This year has been dominated by ns vorts entering the pac nw from door to door. Even when we had a period of split flow it didn't make a difference. Probably won't be there in a few hours and even if it did go down that way it's getting too late to even track it. Never to late to be Martin Luther King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z gfs has the apr 3rd threat. Probably the first time in months I've seen an ull enter the country in so cal and traverse the gulf coast. This year has been dominated by ns vorts entering the pac nw from door to door. Even when we had a period of split flow it didn't make a difference. Probably won't be there in a few hours and even if it did go down that way it's getting too late to even track it. There's been a rather robust signal for a storm at that timeframe. By that point, I'd be quite impressed if we even see snow in the air out of it. Probably just some chilly heavy rain. GFS and GEFS don't look quite as chilly for early April as some other recent runs would suggest. Still probably near normal at best, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 There's been a rather robust signal for a storm at that timeframe. By that point, I'd be quite impressed if we even see snow in the air out of it. Probably just some chilly heavy rain. GFS and GEFS don't look quite as chilly for early April as some other recent runs would suggest. Still probably near normal at best, however. Honestly, I'd just like to be reminded that a miller A is still possible. Even if it's rain or a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why do we repeatedly believe 10 day fantasy storms (Especially in a year like this)? At some point we need to learn... Ian has figured this out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why do we repeatedly believe 10 day fantasy storms (Especially in a year like this)? At some point we need to learn... Ian has figured this out already. Because it's a med-lr disco thread and that's what is supposed to be talked about in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z gfs has the apr 3rd threat. Probably the first time in months I've seen an ull enter the country in so cal and traverse the gulf coast. This year has been dominated by ns vorts entering the pac nw from door to door. Even when we had a period of split flow it didn't make a difference. Probably won't be there in a few hours and even if it did go down that way it's getting too late to even track it. Bob has finally thrown in the towel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Because it's a med-lr disco thread and that's what is supposed to be talked about in the thread. Just seems like a waste of time to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Just seems like a waste of time to me. Stick to the severe thread. It's on fire in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Outlook for April... starting off cool but overall warm look especially by middle of the month. Warm March 31-April 3 as ext rwt arrives for the 3-4 then 10-15 degree drop in temps and colder April 4-6. Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. Sorry it's not pretty with pics to go along with it lol, some people were asking so I threw this together quickly since I have been short on time these past couple weeks. EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 first week of april hecs looked good earlier on the gfs. 4-8 for winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Good morning all. Happy snow DC and Balt areas. I'll be happy to start long range threads next year. You have to admit that 60+ pages and three good March snow events is a pretty good thread. Haha. Glad you guys finally got some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Good morning all. Happy snow DC and Balt areas. I'll be happy to start long range threads next year. You have to admit that 60+ pages and three good March snow events is a pretty good thread. Haha. Glad you guys finally got some snow. first week of april hecs looked good earlier on the gfs. 4-8 for winchester. Maybe start one for April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 For you heat mongers, GFS has a 3 day stretch of 70s next thursday - Saturday...obviously little to no skill, especially with timing, but maybe we get some +5-+10's sometimes in the day 10 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 For you heat mongers, GFS has a 3 day stretch of 70s next thursday - Saturday...obviously little to no skill, especially with timing, but maybe we get some +5-+10's sometimes in the day 10 range It looked warm comparatively speaking. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It looked warm comparatively speaking. Awesome. Getting back to something close to average temperatures looks warm in comparison to the last two months. It's been a remarkable run, especially in March. A complete 180 from last March's heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 euro control has a lp over obx @ 252. 850's are like +5 but there's plenty of time to figure that part out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 euro control has a lp over obx @ 252. 850's are like +5 but there's plenty of time to figure that part out. Hopefully they will be +10 in a couple days and we get a good rain storm. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 euro control has a lp over obx @ 252. 850's are like +5 but there's plenty of time to figure that part out. Give it up man, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Give it up man, it's over. The greatest go down with the ship, and Bob is definitely the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The greatest go down with the ship, and Bob is definitely the greatest. did you just ask me out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 did you just ask me out? aww yes i would, but i don't date married men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 For you heat mongers, GFS has a 3 day stretch of 70s next thursday - Saturday...obviously little to no skill, especially with timing, but maybe we get some +5-+10's sometimes in the day 10 range Do you have any thoughts on what kind of spring we're looking at ? You nailed the theme of the winter with the late cold, and those Dec/Jan 5h analogs were a great call. Hoping its not too dry like a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Give it up man, it's over. pna spike, neg nao, and ao in another valley during the first week of April. #stormsignal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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