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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Timing would be ideal here, in that the light precip falls overnight so we have no sun angle/temp issues for accumulating the light stuff, and when the sun comes up, this beast is starting to get wrapped up so we get dynamics to help out.  

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Northern Va and points north along I-95 are the good spots for this run.       Down toward Richmond a good portion of this would be rain... would change to snow as it wraps up.. but would not amount to much.     Wish it was a bit colder! :-p     Too much detail at this range though.

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Yes...ideally and this is obvious wishcasting, in order to get a serious event, we want the ULL to take SE track and then get pulled north into the eastern TN valley...and then start drifting E/NE...I'm not sure this is an option though

No its probably not because of the trough axis, this is going to still be diving in until a little later then we would want ideally, that means we need the phase to happen on time and "clean" so to speak.  If its a messy drawn out phase we probably end up on the outside watching Philly northeast have all the fun.  March tends to be the time when these things can really amp quickly and the block would argue for a more south solution, so we have reasons to believe the GGEM/Euro solution over the GFS at this point, plus the GFS is just coming around to the idea of a phase in general, but I NEVER feel safe in our area when it comes down to a late developing coastal system that needs to amplify in time.  That is a very risky proposition for us. 

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With the GFS now coming into agreement with the GGEM, Euro, and NOGAPS... Yes, there is still time for change, and there likely will be some. But it is looking really, really good right now; better than anything else this winter. I think it's time to be ready for a storm of some type, and to be ready for winter to go out with a bang!

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phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback.

I kept thinking we could get a crawler yesterday but I had to convince myself to believe that I actually knew enough about what i was seeing at h5 before i made the post. Heh. Next week is an eternity.

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phineas area jackpot too.. seems kinda legit. 09/10 flashback.

Perhaps, areas farther east have more precip but also a more questionable temp profile.  Whoever's on the happy side of the freezing line, but closest to it,  wins in this situation.  

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Northern Va and points north along I-95 are the good spots for this run.       Down toward Richmond a good portion of this would be rain... would change to snow as it wraps up.. but would not amount to much.     Wish it was a bit colder! :-p     Too much detail at this range though.

Yeah right now this event is looking like a bit of a screwjob for most near out latitude. Hopefully it trends colder but even if it doesn't at least some of the MA will break our current streak. 

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