yoda Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We need some beach weather. Everyone will feel better. That will be around April Fools per the GFS... two more weeks of crappy weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We need some beach weather. Everyone will feel better. Honestly, I would like to see another snowstorm, but at this point I've accepted that it's over. I could go for some of that OK/TX weather they just had. Last Sunday in the 60's felt really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's going to be a cold and boring week. Gets even colder next weekend. May as well ride the wave with what will likely be the last real shot at anything even if it's against climo, odds, snowdrought, persistence, and anything else that can be tossed on. The vort itself has consensus early in the period. Things diverge later on. Pretty sure there is going to be a storm of consequence in the eastern half of the country. Location and precip type won't be known until 10 minutes after it starts and even then it could be way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's going to be a cold and boring week. Gets even colder next weekend. May as well ride the wave with what will likely be the last real shot at anything even if it's against climo, odds, snowdrought, persistence, and anything else that can be tossed on. The vort itself has consensus early in the period. Things diverge later on. Pretty sure there is going to be a storm of consequence in the eastern half of the country. Location and precip type won't be known until 10 minutes after it starts and even then it could be way too early. Yeah, the storm I think has pretty good odds. Where and how is the question. But I notice the same **** you do...the block hauling ass....moving around, etc. I don't like the trend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 i only care what the euro says....if the euro has good QPF w/ BL below freezing then count me in....no "we can work on temps later".....nothing to be worked on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That will be around April Fools per the GFS... two more weeks of crappy weather Not 6z or 6z GEFS. 850mb 0C still hanging around us. On April 1st, that could still be good for low 50s if it's sunny though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, the storm I think has pretty good odds. Where and how is the question. But I notice the same **** you do...the block hauling ass....moving around, etc. I don't like the trend on the GFS. yeah....given the pattern there is probably going to be a big storm....just probably not for me and you chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, the storm I think has pretty good odds. Where and how is the question. But I notice the same **** you do...the block hauling ass....moving around, etc. I don't like the trend on the GFS. My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. Same ole same ole. gotta wait for the closed upper low to actually take residence and be resolved before anything definitive is worth speaking about and even then.... If we do the recommended split the difference between the gfs/euro as it stands now.....we get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 With the block gone, 'haulin ass', ahem, it is hard to get excited. But maybe the models will give it back? I agree if it is going to be cold, we should still be rooting for some kind of event. No Easter bonnets this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. Same ole same ole. gotta wait for the closed upper low to actually take residence and be resolved before anything definitive is worth speaking about and even then.... If we do the recommended split the difference between the gfs/euro as it stands now.....we get smoked. will the 32 degree countour be below us or up over Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 With the block gone, 'haulin ass', ahem, it is hard to get excited. But maybe the models will give it back? I agree if it is going to be cold, we should still be rooting for some kind of event. No Easter bonnets this year It's not really a hauling ass of a block. It's just a weird evolution in central canada as the ull spins over the far ne. The high heights are still there around and north of hudson bay but it's really dirty below that. Opens the door for a more n track. Euro is way different in that regard. Pretty much a stone wall across canada and the NE. It's another common example of little things mean a heck of a lot downstream with solutions. You can't really buy into any camp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah....given the pattern there is probably going to be a big storm....just probably not for me and you chase? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 will the 32 degree countour be below us or up over Ontario? Let's just hope precip falls at night....lol There's a lot more cold air to tap through canada and the ne than saddern on the euro. An ohv track would ruin it no matter what unless it never makes it north of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That's what bothers me. The BBB (big beautiful block) that was like an anchor before hauled ass faster than me at a Klan rally. LOL! Made me seriously laugh! If nothing else, the humor, sarcasm, and joking spirit of the bitter people in the Mid Atlantic has made this an easier season to put up with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 will the 32 degree countour be below us or up over Ontario? you know....the Euro may not be the best long range model....GFS seems to catch some storms first...but within 0-48 its the best model. Its actually the best short range model in the world. No Model is really good 5 days out.....but 48 hours in....forget the Rap,NAM,GFS,Hi Res....the euro will nail it and never budge. The Euro never goes from .80 on 12z to .22 on 00z a day before the storm like the GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 you know....the Euro may not be the best long range model....GFS seems to catch some storms first...but within 0-48 its the best model. Its actually the best short range model in the world. No Model is really good 5 days out.....but 48 hours in....forget the Rap,NAM,GFS,Hi Res....the euro will nail it and never budge. The Euro never goes from .80 on 12z to .22 on 00z a day before the storm like the GFS/NAM You should post that here... www.facebook.com/wxrisk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm forced to agree with others here. I've tried to not believe it, but going against the Euro inside about 3 days is just asking for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 When the euro is steadfast it's tough to bet against. It's not always steadfast though. It can be jumpy when the gfs is steadfast. All models have their strengths and weaknesses depending on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 When the euro is steadfast it's tough to bet against. It's not always steadfast though. It can be jumpy when the gfs is steadfast. All models have their strengths and weaknesses depending on the setup. how does the 84 hour NAM look with regards to our 162 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Who wants to be in the bullseye 1 week out? With the degree of the block not clear, there is no way any model is going to have this thing nailed from this far out. Out to sea Miller A and screw job Miller B still on the table, as is a better solution. All I know is that I have had a lot of modeled snow this winter with not much to show for it. Some real snow would take some of the bitterness out of this winter. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 how does the 84 hour NAM look with regards to our 162 storm? 4"QPF with -15 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 4"QPF with -15 850s. is the GFS now out at 11:30 and EURO out 2:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 is the GFS now out at 11:30 and EURO out 2:30 1130am-ish and 2pm-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS still has the storm...looks really similar in terms of temp profiles to the epic bust storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. Same ole same ole. gotta wait for the closed upper low to actually take residence and be resolved before anything definitive is worth speaking about and even then.... If we do the recommended split the difference between the gfs/euro as it stands now.....we get smoked. bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 bust weenies are good at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The day 10 storm on the euro looks nice....I would guess because the pattern is so sick, that MRB/JYO/OKV have a better than normal chance of a 2"+ event over the next 2 weeks....maybe 1 in 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The day 10 storm on the euro looks nice....I would guess because the pattern is so sick, that MRB/JYO/OKV have a better than normal chance of a 2"+ event over the next 2 weeks....maybe 1 in 3? So, the day 7 storm on the GFS is not there, but another 240hr storm is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the GFS is clearly the correct model with the d7 storm and the euro has already nailed the d10 one. ALL IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So, the day 7 storm on the GFS is not there, but another 240hr storm is? yes..day 7 is wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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