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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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With the block gone, 'haulin ass', ahem, it is hard to get excited. But maybe the models will give it back?

I agree if it is going to be cold, we should still be rooting for some kind of event.

No Easter bonnets this year

 

It's not really a hauling ass of a block. It's just a weird evolution in central canada as the ull spins over the far ne. The high heights are still there around and north of hudson bay but it's really dirty below that. Opens the door for a more n track.

 

Euro is way different in that regard. Pretty much a stone wall across canada and the NE. It's another common example of little things mean a heck of a lot downstream with solutions. You can't really buy into any camp right now. 

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will the 32 degree countour be below us or up over Ontario?

 

Let's just hope precip falls at night....lol

 

There's a lot more cold air to tap through canada and the ne than saddern on the euro. An ohv track would ruin it no matter what unless it never makes it north of TN. 

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will the 32 degree countour be below us or up over Ontario?

you know....the Euro may not be the best long range model....GFS seems to catch some storms first...but within 0-48 its the best model. Its actually the best short range model in the world. No Model is really good 5 days out.....but 48 hours in....forget the Rap,NAM,GFS,Hi Res....the euro will nail it and never budge. The Euro never goes from .80 on 12z to .22 on 00z a day before the storm like the GFS/NAM

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you know....the Euro may not be the best long range model....GFS seems to catch some storms first...but within 0-48 its the best model. Its actually the best short range model in the world. No Model is really good 5 days out.....but 48 hours in....forget the Rap,NAM,GFS,Hi Res....the euro will nail it and never budge. The Euro never goes from .80 on 12z to .22 on 00z a day before the storm like the GFS/NAM

You should post that here... www.facebook.com/wxrisk...

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When the euro is steadfast it's tough to bet against. It's not always steadfast though. It can be jumpy when the gfs is steadfast. All models have their strengths and weaknesses depending on the setup. 

how does the 84 hour NAM look with regards to our 162 storm?

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Who wants to be in the bullseye 1 week out?  With the degree of the block not clear, there is no way any model is going to have this thing nailed from this far out.  Out to sea Miller A and screw job Miller B still on the table, as is a better solution.    All I know is that I have had a lot of modeled snow this winter with not much to show for it.  Some real snow would take some of the bitterness out of this winter.

 

MDstorm

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My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. 

 

Same ole same ole. gotta wait for the closed upper low to actually take residence and be resolved before anything definitive is worth speaking about and even then....

 

If we do the recommended split the difference between the gfs/euro as it stands now.....we get smoked.

bust

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end of march, only thing I'm hoping for is 60+ and sun. Its time to crash the bus into a ditch and put this winter out of its misery. With our luck we'll get overcast high 40s and 30 mph wind.

The bolded part is more correct than not.  There is no sign of real spring weather coming into our area, even through early April now (and maybe beyond).  No sign of this pattern changing at all.  It's amazing how consistently stuck we are in this.

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I'm tired of this.  I don't mind the occasional cool-down after a front, but this consistently cool crap (with the random mild day thrown in) has got to go.

 

gotta love climo. it makes me smile.

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The bolded part is more correct than not.  There is no sign of real spring weather coming into our area, even through early April now (and maybe beyond).  No sign of this pattern changing at all.  It's amazing how consistently stuck we are in this.

I love Spring and temps in the 60's. But we usually skip past that pretty quickly. So I am okay with below normal. 50 degrees and sunny is okay in my book. Just keep the wind at bay.

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