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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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It shouldnt take 3/4 of a day to transfer.... thats ridiculous

 

At 159 it starts the transfer as the secondary begins to develop over N FL

 

168 primary still over NE KY and transfer still going on with secondary off SC coast

 

174 transfer nearly done, primary in SE OH with new low near ILM/HSE area of NC

 

177 FINALLY TRANSFER COMPLETE

 

Just no... no way

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The euro is caving to the gfs

We gotta be careful what we wish for. 0z was another check box on the wernie run dept but 6z is not. I don't like redevopers very often and I definitely don't like them when the big beautiful block in Canada that was there just 6 hours ago vanished into thin air.

I want the euro hold firm on a southern solution that creeps north each day. If it jumps to an ohv redeveloper then we can start tracking heat cause that's not going to do it when were almost in may.

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We gotta be careful what we wish for. 0z was another check box on the wernie run dept but 6z is not. I don't like redevopers very often and I definitely don't like them when the big beautiful block in Canada that was there just 6 hours ago vanished into thin air.

I want the euro hold firm on a southern solution that creeps north each day. If it jumps to an ohv redeveloper then we can start tracking heat cause that's not going to do it when were almost in may.

Bob, even the 00 run had flag saying beware as it shows a miller b.  They usually don't work out in Jan or Feb,  hoping for one in late March is asking for heartache.  A flatter look like the euro but with slightly more amplitude is probably what is needed. 

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Bob, even the 00 run had flag saying beware as it shows a miller b. They usually don't work out in Jan or Feb, hoping for one in late March is asking for heartache. A flatter look like the euro but with slightly more amplitude is probably what is needed.

I guess it depends on where you are and what your expectations are. We can still do front end and cad. Today proves that. We cant get an all snow storm that way though.

Several, in fact most, gfs members have snow chances to varying degrees. Truth be told, I'm anxious to look at a model and see no chance in hell for snow.

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Bob, even the 00 run had flag saying beware as it shows a miller b.  They usually don't work out in Jan or Feb,  hoping for one in late March is asking for heartache.  A flatter look like the euro but with slightly more amplitude is probably what is needed. 

 

yea, it's a reality check for sure. I did run the h5 vort panel loop side by side with the last 2 runs of the gfs. The largest difference is the gfs closes off h5 in the mw in the last 2 runs. The euro doesn't close it off at all and doesn't really even get close to be honest. GFS builds ridging in front of the closed ull and that's what drives the ohv track and redevelopment. I suppose both scenarios are equally possible. 

 

Euro drives the vort down to central tx and takes a path through nga and sc. Trough goes a little negative @ 180 before getting shoved offshore. 

 

Latest GFS drives the vort to just about OK before closing it off in MO. GFS seems to eject the big ull over the ne quicker than the euro too. 

 

If the gfs backs off on the early closed low idea then the solution will change dramatically. I have a hunch it will either do that or dig further south. The days leading in have a very suppressive look. Strong confluence over the ne with the departing ull low. I just don't see the bowling ball forming and making the left turn so easily. Should be a fun week. lol

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The euro is caving to the gfs

We gotta be careful what we wish for. 0z was another check box on the wernie run dept but 6z is not. I don't like redevopers very often and I definitely don't like them when the big beautiful block in Canada that was there just 6 hours ago vanished into thin air.

I want the euro hold firm on a southern solution that creeps north each day. If it jumps to an ohv redeveloper then we can start tracking heat cause that's not going to do it when were almost in may.

That's what bothers me. The BBB (big beautiful block) that was like an anchor before hauled ass faster than me at a Klan rally.

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It's going to be a cold and boring week. Gets even colder next weekend. May as well ride the wave with what will likely be the last real shot at anything even if it's against climo, odds, snowdrought, persistence, and anything else that can be tossed on. 

 

The vort itself has consensus early in the period. Things diverge later on. Pretty sure there is going to be a storm of consequence in the eastern half of the country. Location and precip type won't be known until 10 minutes after it starts and even then it could be way too early.  

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It's going to be a cold and boring week. Gets even colder next weekend. May as well ride the wave with what will likely be the last real shot at anything even if it's against climo, odds, snowdrought, persistence, and anything else that can be tossed on. 

 

The vort itself has consensus early in the period. Things diverge later on. Pretty sure there is going to be a storm of consequence in the eastern half of the country. Location and precip type won't be known until 10 minutes after it starts and even then it could be way too early.  

 

Yeah, the storm I think has pretty good odds.   Where and how is the question.   But I notice the same **** you do...the block hauling ass....moving around, etc.   I don't like the trend on the GFS.

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Yeah, the storm I think has pretty good odds.   Where and how is the question.   But I notice the same **** you do...the block hauling ass....moving around, etc.   I don't like the trend on the GFS.

 

My model prediction skills are predicting a weenie euro run this afternoon. The problem will be that it would mean it's moving towards the gfs re-developer idea. Then again....the gfs could bury us first @ 12z. 

 

Same ole same ole. gotta wait for the closed upper low to actually take residence and be resolved before anything definitive is worth speaking about and even then....

 

If we do the recommended split the difference between the gfs/euro as it stands now.....we get smoked.

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