March Med/Long Range Disco

[needbiggerboat]

Considering what happened last week, perhaps focusing on consistently getting a forecast correct 24 hours out should be the first priority and then in 500 years maybe putting tax dollars towards supporting something ridiculous as a 9 month model run should be considered.

 

The models typically do pretty good 24 hours out, not withstanding the recent snowless debacle.  Striving towards better long range forecasting is certainly a valuable objective, but certainly is a work in progress.  You can't just give up.

[Yeoman]

The models typically do pretty good 24 hours out, not withstanding the recent snowless debacle.  Striving towards better long range forecasting is certainly a valuable objective, but certainly is a work in progress.  You can't just give up.

 

There is nothing valuable in wasting resources on running a model with output for 9 months from now.. All that tells me is that the scientists have given up on putting any more resources to predicting short and medium term forecasting if they are willing to waste money on supporting this crap. There is a **** load left to do just to get the forecast half way decent for one week from now.

[Bob Chill]

Remind me not to post any more 249 day panels

[WinterWxLuvr]

Remind me not to post any more 249 day panels

It had nothing to do with you, Bob.

Any thoughts on what you're seeing on the models? Mon looks more in play than it did, and late next week looks interesting.

[Ji]

Remind me not to post any more 249 day panels

forget 249 day....look at euro control 249 and beyond. Amazing 1958 storm. Im in

[Ian]

Lolz

[WinterWxLuvr]

Lolz

You usually win, but you just might have to eat crow Monday.

[Ian]

You usually win, but you just might have to eat crow Monday.

Huh? I already said it had a chance west of here at least. I also said we could get a dusting into the cities. There might be a slight chance for more but prob wouldn't go there till its underway.

My issue is more with the nonstop running to the best HECS we can think of.

[PhineasC]

Huh? I already said it had a chance west of here at least. I also said we could get a dusting into the cities. There might be a slight chance for more but prob wouldn't go there till its underway.

My issue is more with the nonstop running to the best HECS we can think of.

You don't have to pander to everyone to look unbiased. It isn't going to snow around the cities until next winter. Yeah, the hills in Winchester might get some flakes and I guess some folks will claim victory over that.

[Ian]

You don't have to pander to everyone to look unbiased. It isn't going to snow around the cities until next winter. Yeah, the hills in Winchester might get some flakes and I guess some folks will claim victory over that.

 

I wouldn't be that surprised if we pull off another t-1" (probably closer to T) in this pattern somewhere. The problem with Sunday night is the precip is really light this far east on pretty much all guidance. The timing is decent but we may not even get to freezing so it's going to be tough around here. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I wouldn't be that surprised if we pull off another t-1" (probably closer to T) in this pattern somewhere. The problem with Sunday night is the precip is really light this far east on pretty much all guidance. The timing is decent but we may not even get to freezing so it's going to be tough around here.

The light precip seems to be the bad part east of here. The Euro being so cold gave me a bit of confidence. The NAM and GFS are trending wetter and a bit faster. If that trend were to continue, it might just be enough, even in DC. Of course it can trend the other way too.

I was referring to you usually winning by being a little more grounded about these things. Being skeptical of snow is usually a sound tactic, especially in March. However, people declaring with confidence that it definitely won't snow are really basing that on nothing concrete and ignoring the modeling right in front of them. To say there is a chance at snow Mon is not even a stretch.

I agree with you about the HECS calls. Those are based on nothing as well. About all I've said about next week is that it looks interesting.

[Ian]

The light precip seems to be the bad part east of here. The Euro being so cold gave me a bit of confidence. The NAM and GFS are trending wetter and a bit faster. If that trend were to continue, it might just be enough, even in DC. Of course it can trend the other way too.

I was referring to you usually winning by being a little more grounded about these things. Being skeptical of snow is usually a sound tactic, especially in March. However, people declaring with confidence that it definitely won't snow are really basing that on nothing concrete and ignoring the modeling right in front of them. To say there is a chance at snow Mon is not even a stretch.

I agree with you about the HECS calls. Those are based on nothing as well. About all I've said about next week is that it looks interesting.

 

My avg temp is torching even at night at this pt if you like snow. I mean, obviously it's still possible but as said earlier somewhere we need the fluke of flukes to get anything of consequence. Hey, I'll stand along with those looking for that since we have to deal with cold weather either way. The good news is that it can't hold on for a whole huge ton longer given climo. Soon enough the crap days will be in the 50s and 60s. I don't mind the transitional season as much as some do.. we've got a growing number of trees starting to blossom, cool weather is good for that.. last yr the flowers lasted like 45 minutes.

[WinterWxLuvr]

My avg temp is torching even at night at this pt if you like snow. I mean, obviously it's still possible but as said earlier somewhere we need the fluke of flukes to get anything of consequence. Hey, I'll stand along with those looking for that since we have to deal with cold weather either way. The good news is that it can't hold on for a whole huge ton longer given climo. Soon enough the crap days will be in the 50s and 60s. I don't mind the transitional season as much as some do.. we've got a growing number of trees starting to blossom, cool weather is good for that.. last yr the flowers lasted like 45 minutes.

Saw something out of the Wash post predicting a much later cherry bloom this year.

The sounding near DC for Mon morning looks really good to me. Precip seems to be the issue. Latest SREFS are wetter than earlier ones even down toward DC. Who knows, might get lucky.

[Bob Chill]

It had nothing to do with you, Bob.

Any thoughts on what you're seeing on the models? Mon looks more in play than it did, and late next week looks interesting.

I see some mood stuff early mon morning. Problem is that I've been mooded to death with no satisfaction. My only prize or prey is to break the streak. If we're not going to do that then the heck with it. As far as the upcoming week goes...it looks like it could do something but considering we're 60 hours from an event with little confidence it's hard to get butt 'cised about something 3 times as far into the future.

[Bob Chill]

I'm still all in though. Just not as all in as I was when I was all in when it was still all in'able.

[Bodhi Cove]

Saw something out of the Wash post predicting a much later cherry bloom this year.

The hummingbirds probably won't show up in this area until mid April (usually they're here by March 15-25)

I'm still all in though. Just not as all in as I was when I was all in when it was still all in'able.

MigraINe. :|

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm still all in though. Just not as all in as I was when I was all in when it was still all in'able.

Don't know if it will continue, but the NAM trend is still going. Even wetter this time. Haven't looked at soundings for this run, but as I said the 18z sounds looked great for Monday morning. We get the precip advertised by the NAM and I think you'll get more than mood flakes. Of course it will be fleeting.

[Bob Chill]

The nam stabbed me in the heart with a dull rusty blade on the 6th. I won't even look at it until Tuesday.

[Ian]

funny thing is we're right about normal at least in DC for Mar so far yet it seems 'awful'. shows what our march weather has been lately for the most part.

 

even in the best case we're done by 8am with any snow hope around here on Monday. nam low is like 34.. 32 at dulles. dusting patrol. i like ji's house more than mine for that.

[needbiggerboat]

There is nothing valuable in wasting resources on running a model with output for 9 months from now.. All that tells me is that the scientists have given up on putting any more resources to predicting short and medium term forecasting if they are willing to waste money on supporting this crap. There is a **** load left to do just to get the forecast half way decent for one week from now.

That might be your longest post ever.

If you read NOAA/NCEP commentary on this subject, an assertion is that problems with short term models are in part due to large scale climate biases. Investing and improving on the long term climate models can lead to better accuracy not only in the longer time scales, but also directly for the short term models. And as the short term models improve, benefits can be seen for the long term climate models. In other words, it's a systemic relationship and you can't separate the two. As one improves, so does the other

Taking the position of having grief over the weaknesses of short term models and demanding that investment cease towards the long term climate models is very short sighted. The feedbacks travel both ways...without development and focus on the long term models, you are unlikely to acheive the lift you so desire in the short term models.

[WVclimo]

Don't know if it will continue, but the NAM trend is still going. Even wetter this time. Haven't looked at soundings for this run, but as I said the 18z sounds looked great for Monday morning. We get the precip advertised by the NAM and I think you'll get more than mood flakes. Of course it will be fleeting.

Just for fun, 00Z NAM at Martinsburg, from Bufkit:

 

130318/1000Z  58  15009KT  31.0F  SNOW   12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   12:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  130318/1100Z  59  13009KT  29.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   11:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 130318/1200Z  60  13009KT  29.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   10:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--130318/1300Z  61  14009KT  30.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    9:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  130318/1400Z  62  14010KT  30.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  130318/1500Z  63  14010KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  130318/1600Z  64  14011KT  31.5F  SNOW    4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    7:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  130318/1700Z  65  14010KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  130318/1800Z  66  13009KT  32.4F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    7:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35   ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--130318/1900Z  67  13009KT  31.9F  SNOW   11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091    8:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  130318/2000Z  68  12009KT  31.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.063    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.50   130318/2100Z  69  12010KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.62    130318/2200Z  70  13005KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.70    130318/2300Z  71  13004KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.74    130319/0000Z  72  13003KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.77    ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--130319/0100Z  73  13003KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    8:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.77    

[yoda]

00z GFS dumps .1-.2 DCA west Sun night into mon morning... 2m temps around freezing with 850's -3ish... guess we could see some mood flakes here in DC... .25 QPF out toward MRB/FDK with temps around 30

[Ji]

Euro has 6-8 inches in Greenville sc at 169

[Ger]

Euro has 6-8 inches in Greenville sc at 169

Greenville...good...that's plenty breathing room. For us that is. Surely Greenvillians know how unlikely it would be

I am already back into my old pattern of scouring the boards after major model runs. If nothing happens after the second modeled event, I'm DONE completely

[Wonderdog]

Euro has 6-8 inches in Greenville sc at 169

It has been my observation over many years of weather watching in the Mid Atlantic, that storms and fronts always trend north in March. Therefore my forecast is for rain for us on Monday but the Greenville South Carolina snow next weekend trends north into our area. I fully expect that storm to ride ride up the coast.

[FrederickWX]

My avg temp is torching even at night at this pt if you like snow. I mean, obviously it's still possible but as said earlier somewhere we need the fluke of flukes to get anything of consequence. Hey, I'll stand along with those looking for that since we have to deal with cold weather either way. The good news is that it can't hold on for a whole huge ton longer given climo. Soon enough the crap days will be in the 50s and 60s. I don't mind the transitional season as much as some do.. we've got a growing number of trees starting to blossom, cool weather is good for that.. last yr the flowers lasted like 45 minutes.

Yeah, it was incredible, and ridiculous, that I had tulips blooming in March last year.  And yes, they literally lasted two or three days before they just burned out in the heat.  I hate that it's staying so cold for so long this year (compared to averages), but at least the flowers will stick around a while once they do bloom.  And the trees are starting to blossom despite the cold.  Maybe we can avoid "cutoff low" and "backdoor front" season by getting our cold air now.  Of course, with the pattern we've had, we are probably more likely than usual to get a bunch of backdoor fronts pushing down through here in April and May.

[Bob Chill]

I suppose we gotta watch late next week too. Euro and gfs both have quite a soaker down south and have had it consistently for a couple days.

H5 looks pretty good. Getting such a suppressed track on march is pretty tough. Plenty of cold in advance. Hard not to be a little interested.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I suppose we gotta watch late next week too. Euro and gfs both have quite a soaker down south and have had it consistently for a couple days.

H5 looks pretty good. Getting such a suppressed track on march is pretty tough. Plenty of cold in advance. Hard not to be a little interested.

Couple GFS members starting to show cracks in the suppressed idea.

[clueless]

Couple GFS members starting to show cracks in the suppressed idea.

Ya. Hard to believe. Congrats NC?

[Amped]

00z is trying. I am displeased with the Lack of ridging is western CA though. Will have a hard time keeping the surface cold.  When we look out the window, we need to see the closed H5 low overhead.

 

Edit Okay fine: Tired of the PBP