needbiggerboat Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Well, I'll wait for those specifics, but while I'm waiting I'll stick with the opinion that we need to limit the focus, realize that even if an objective is desirable the means are simply not there to do it, and, with a focus on the weather aspect of this, if a forecasting tool can be developed that can give us a good idea of exactly what to expect within a 3-5 day period, that will benefit more people in more ways than some of these other uses of people and money ever will. Yeah, it's clear you hate the maths and would rather focus on "optimism" and "gut feel", but the long range tools are continuing to evolve. Iterations and validations are all steps in building toward more accurate forecasting tools in the future...You can't get there without taking steps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 the 500mb map on euro 10 day as HECS written all over it. We will get a hECS this month. I guarantee it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 the 500mb map on euro 10 day as HECS written all over it. We will get a hECS this month. I guarantee it Too bad it's 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Winter is far from over for the MA. It looks like the MA has found its groove. NAO down; AO kinda down; PNA going up;and ridging in the west. Details may work themselves out in our favor. Don't give up yet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 the 500mb map on euro 10 day as HECS written all over it. We will get a hECS this month. I guarantee it Euro has been money from 10 days out all season. Fire up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Im looking for warm weather and sun heading into April. If we happen to trip over a Hecs getting there who can really complain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Yeah, it's clear you hate the maths and would rather focus on "optimism" and "gut feel", but the long range tools are continuing to evolve. Iterations and validations are all steps in building toward more accurate forecasting tools in the future...You can't get there without taking steps today. LOL, what a worthless post. Here's the bottom line. You can't come up with a single concrete example of how the general population benefits from a nine month weather forecast. At least not one that can justify spending public money in a time of all time record deficit spending. No, all you can do is attempt a backhanded insult. Hate the "maths"? Is "maths" a word? Somebody should have told me that I hate the "maths" before I went out and got a "maths" degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Euro has been money from 10 days out all season. Fire up the bus. At this point the amounts are really the only question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 the 500mb map on euro 10 day as HECS written all over it. We will get a hECS this month. I guarantee it How did your guarantee work out for February?, is Ji weather still a page on Facebook . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 At this point the amounts are really the only question. An HECS between March 22-25 is basically guaranteed, a BECS is a distinct possibility. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 If we dont get a winter storm warning....i will shut down my account in there till August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 If we dont get a winter storm warning....i will shut down my account in there till August Sounds good to me, HM is honking about the storm around the 25th-26th time frame instead of the one for next weekend. 1958 here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 LOL, what a worthless post. Here's the bottom line. You can't come up with a single concrete example of how the general population benefits from a nine month weather forecast. At least not one that can justify spending public money in a time of all time record deficit spending. No, all you can do is attempt a backhanded insult. Hate the "maths"? Is "maths" a word? Somebody should have told me that I hate the "maths" before I went out and got a "maths" degree. Just because it may not be particularly useful for the general public doesn't mean it doesn't have useful applications. NOAA is within the Department of Commerce. Weather -- and medium to long range climate variability -- affects commerce. It affects agriculture. If people didn't use the products, they wouldn't be producing them. You're being excessively shortsighted. /banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 LOL, what a worthless post. Here's the bottom line. You can't come up with a single concrete example of how the general population benefits from a nine month weather forecast. At least not one that can justify spending public money in a time of all time record deficit spending. No, all you can do is attempt a backhanded insult. Hate the "maths"? Is "maths" a word? Somebody should have told me that I hate the "maths" before I went out and got a "maths" degree. It was actually intended as a direct insult... Sounds like your root issue is more ideological and political. I gave you the broad strokes of how long range forecasting adds values across various constituencies, and how it is clearly a work in progress. I can't help you if you let your petty biases get in the way of logic and reason and fail to absorb the content of my other (non-insulting) posts toward your original statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 LOL, what a worthless post. Here's the bottom line. You can't come up with a single concrete example of how the general population benefits from a nine month weather forecast. At least not one that can justify spending public money in a time of all time record deficit spending. No, all you can do is attempt a backhanded insult. Hate the "maths"? Is "maths" a word? Somebody should have told me that I hate the "maths" before I went out and got a "maths" degree. "Maths" is a common term in the UK as shorthand for "Mathematics". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Just because it may not be particularly useful for the general public doesn't mean it doesn't have useful applications. NOAA is within the Department of Commerce. Weather -- and medium to long range climate variability -- affects commerce. It affects agriculture. If people didn't use the products, they wouldn't be producing them. You're being excessively shortsighted. /banter We can just agree to disagree. And make no mistake, there are always justifications given for the misuse of public money, which trying to forecast Nov weather in March would be a colossal example of. For every supposed benefit you can list for this type of use of public money, I can give you fifty more beneficial uses for the same money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 We had our shot at a HECS and we blew it. It only snows at 50 degrees and not 33 so perhaps in May something might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 We can just agree to disagree. And make no mistake, there are always justifications given for the misuse of public money, which trying to forecast Nov weather in March would be a colossal example of. For every supposed benefit you can list for this type of use of public money, I can give you fifty more beneficial uses for the same money. If it showed a Nov hecs it would justify a large additional appropriation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 It was actually intended as a direct insult... Sounds like your root issue is more ideological and political. I gave you the broad strokes of how long range forecasting adds values across various constituencies, and how it is clearly a work in progress. I can't help you if you let your petty biases get in the way of logic and reason and fail to absorb the content of my other (non-insulting) posts toward your original statement. Your insults are meaningless to me. They only serve to make you look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 If it showed a Nov hecs it would justify a large additional appropriation If it could guarantee one, I'd have to rethink my position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 NAM still trying for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I have no idea if you guys are all joking or what but the models don't even look close to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 I have no idea if you guys are all joking or what but the models don't even look close to snow. Granted it has to be correct first, but the NAM is below freezing at both 850 and the surface with precip falling Mon morning. The Euro was cold at the same time with precip falling in some areas but close with more. It's not a stretch that some snow might fall then. Of course, I'm looking more in my area than the Balt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFS has now joined the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Yeah, it's clear you hate the maths and would rather focus on "optimism" and "gut feel", but the long range tools are continuing to evolve. Iterations and validations are all steps in building toward more accurate forecasting tools in the future...You can't get there without taking steps today. Considering what happened last week, perhaps focusing on consistently getting a forecast correct 24 hours out should be the first priority and then in 500 years maybe putting tax dollars towards supporting something ridiculous as a 9 month model run should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Probably mentioned already today...but in today's map discussion CPC mentioned a possible record level negative AO for the time of year. That puts an interesting spin on the 7-10 day progs, with the such anomalously cold air possibly available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Probably mentioned already today...but in today's map discussion CPC mentioned a possible record level negative AO for the time of year. That puts an interesting spin on the 7-10 day progs, with the such anomalously cold air possibly available. It probably means that Lake Baikal will be frozen over until June and we'll be stuck with a modified cP garbage airmass that is cold enough to be annoying for March but too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 NAM still trying for Monday. NAM is also still trying for March 5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 NAM is also still trying for March 5/6. Give the NAM an A+, nailed March 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Your insults are meaningless to me. They only serve to make you look bad. yeah i suppose i look bad next to your medieval-esque approach to science, and your embrace of the booga booga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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