easternsnowman Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Normal overnight lows are still below freezing for most places other than DCA. I agree, we must hope for nighttime snow for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm all in for the 174+hr threat until it's gone at 18z. I'm in and out more than dish network during during a tstorm. I like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Where do you think the cfs2 predicted anomalies come from? The cfs2 is constantly running a dynamic model out in time (monthly, or 9 monthly), specifically an atmospheric model (GFS-based) coupled to an interactive ocean model, at low resolution (T126, half the GEFS resolution), to generate the weekly/monthly/seasonal anomaly forecasts. I'm not going to turn this into a political discussion, but I'll stand by what I said. There's not one single reasonable reason to try and predict weather 9 months in advance. If someone wants to invest private money into that endeavor, go for it. As for the CFS2, my opinion of it is that it is totally useless. Sorry. This isn't some personal attack on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFS day 8 is moderately interesting...at least interesting enough to force Bob to jump back in. All of next week has been interesting for some time now. This isn't breaking news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This thread is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 This thread is terrible This post will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This thread is terrible Ur right. I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This thread is still more interesting than the severe thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm not going to turn this into a political discussion, but I'll stand by what I said. There's not one single reasonable reason to try and predict weather 9 months in advance. If someone wants to invest private money into that endeavor, go for it. As for the CFS2, my opinion of it is that it is totally useless. Sorry. This isn't some personal attack on you. Long range prediction has a lot of utility and value...over time, the accuracy and technology will improve....can't get there without doing it with today's available tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Long range prediction has a lot of utility and value...over time, the accuracy and technology will improve....can't get there without doing it with today's available tools. OK, I'll play. How do I benefit from knowing that next November will be within 0.5 degrees of normal? What tangible effect does this knowledge have on my day to day life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 OK, I'll play. How do I benefit from knowing that next November will be within 0.5 degrees of normal? What tangible effect does this knowledge have on my day to day life? dtk and other SMEs can answer that question better...IMO, it's not about being precise to a degree, but more so about general tendencies and trends in the expected weather and climate....that is material and useful information for a range of constituencies, including agriculture, the energy industry, general commerce and business, government, etc, etc. Perhaps your expectations are off in regards to the relative level of metric accuracy of such long range products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This thread is still more interesting than the severe thread march sucks for svr anyway. april will be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Winter 2012-13 snowfall >> Spring 2013 "severe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 dtk and other SMEs can answer that question better...IMO, it's not about being precise to a degree, but more so about general tendencies and trends in the expected weather and climate....that is material and useful information for a range of constituencies, including agriculture, the energy industry, general commerce and business, government, etc, etc. Perhaps your expectations are off in regards to the relative level of metric accuracy of such long range products Well, I'll wait for those specifics, but while I'm waiting I'll stick with the opinion that we need to limit the focus, realize that even if an objective is desirable the means are simply not there to do it, and, with a focus on the weather aspect of this, if a forecasting tool can be developed that can give us a good idea of exactly what to expect within a 3-5 day period, that will benefit more people in more ways than some of these other uses of people and money ever will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 march sucks for svr anyway. april will be rockin' Not if this sucky block won't ever break down. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Mar 22 timeframe pretty consistent. Let's see what happens. Otherwise I hope we flip warm, which, of course, won't happen cause we are fooked no matter what in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, we don't have many wanting to talk do we? Euro, GFS, NAM all show the chance for snow Mon morning. Euro, GFS show a really cold week next week, with the possibility of storminess. Does every map have to show 8-12 before discussion can begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, we don't have many wanting to talk do we? Euro, GFS, NAM all show the chance for snow Mon morning. Euro, GFS show a really cold week next week, with the possibility of storminess. Does every map have to show 8-12 before discussion can begin? yes. We have not gotten a normal 4-8 inch snowstorm since the 1990;s Its either MECS/HECS or car topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, we don't have many wanting to talk do we? Euro, GFS, NAM all show the chance for snow Mon morning. Euro, GFS show a really cold week next week, with the possibility of storminess. Does every map have to show 8-12 before discussion can begin? most people probably dont have that realistic a shot for much.. tho you could certainly get ground whitening or a few inches with the first sys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, we don't have many wanting to talk do we? Euro, GFS, NAM all show the chance for snow Mon morning. Euro, GFS show a really cold week next week, with the possibility of storminess. Does every map have to show 8-12 before discussion can begin? You got me bud, and that's all you need. Mon morning looks good for you, not so much for the cityfolk. Next week is the group's time. Let's just sit back and bide our time as the discussion grows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 euro might get us a dusting or so even into the city on the first event.. depends on timing probably. love the nc mauler on fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, we don't have many wanting to talk do we? Euro, GFS, NAM all show the chance for snow Mon morning. Euro, GFS show a really cold week next week, with the possibility of storminess. Does every map have to show 8-12 before discussion can begin? I don't say much because not that much to say, but I am here with the "glass is half full" mindset. Monday looks ok for you, but don't think much happening east of you snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm all in. What's new this winter? I'm like a 16 pound large mouth bass that has been caught and released about 12 times this winter, but I can't resist that same lure waving in front of my face yet again. Players on the table for a rare late march big time storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 most people probably dont have that realistic a shot for much.. tho you could certainly get ground whitening or a few inches with the first sys Ji's right. Throw out the "couple inches" idea. We don't get those anymore. It's either cartoppers or HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 euro might get us a dusting or so even into the city on the first event.. depends on timing probably. love the nc mauler on fri. It's coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Well my thoughts weren't leaning toward actually trying to forecast something. It's more, "the models give it a chance of happening". The Euro for Monday morning is particularly interesting to me, and not just for my area. It's pretty cold, and decent precip is flirting with the area. If it could get that in here a bit quicker, we might all get a little snow. And next week looks wild. At this point it looks like anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Hard to get excited after being shut out. The models have the boy who cried wolf aura around them. We do modeled snow very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 It's coming north.We need the fluke of all flukesDo you feel lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 We need the fluke of all flukes Do you feel lucky? Indeed I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 It's coming north. yep, probably all the way to beantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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