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March Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times.

 

I think you already pointed out it's lower resolution. The NAM did pretty well at 84 in Feb 2010 but no one uses it at that range with any confidence at this pt. This is one of those unchecked Ji'isms that eventually runs rampant.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying.  It has been good this winter.  When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first.  Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait.

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chris87

chris87

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Posted

I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times.

 

humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence"

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence"

Well said.  I have no idea what the Euro control run's parameters are, but if it's a Euro ensemble member, are they not at higher or comparable resolution to the GFS operational?  

 

All said, I still think the Euro ensemble mean is probably the best to use right now and it still shows us getting respectable QPF (so I've heard from the NYC forum).  

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clueless

clueless

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I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying.  It has been good this winter.  When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first.  Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait.

So true. Unless that baby is on board, this may be our last show. Pass the sunscreen.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
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I think you already pointed out it's lower resolution. The NAM did pretty well at 84 in Feb 2010 but no one uses it at that range with any confidence at this pt. This is one of those unchecked Ji'isms that eventually runs rampant.

To you and Chris 87 let me be perfectly clear I lean towards Mitch on this one and think there is only a small chance of this working out. I also don't think the control run is good but people were discussing it so I threw in the things i knew about it. Now this is a weather board, so let's have fun tracking this and if it doesn't work we know except for Ian, Mark, Kenny and Yoda we will not be talking to each other for 9 Months.
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted

I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying. It has been good this winter. When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first. Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait.

But at this point they are just a couple hundred feet apart and not worlds apart. So we're not in the "one of them is going to bust bad" type of comparison. Both solutions are similar and possible.

The one thing that has grown is the decent sized storm signal. The majority of the globals all show a pretty big storm on or around the coast in relatively similar fashion. I think confidence in a storm actually developing and affecting more than the SC coast is "ok" at this point. The rest is totally up in the air.

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chris87

chris87

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Well said.  I have no idea what the Euro control run's parameters are, but if it's a Euro ensemble member, are they not at higher or comparable resolution to the GFS operational?  

 

All said, I still think the Euro ensemble mean is probably the best to use right now and it still shows us getting respectable QPF (so I've heard from the NYC forum).  

 

Yes, the EPS system is run at T639 (~30 km) while the GFS is at 27 km, so yes they're comparable. The EPS Control Run is I believe just up-scaled from the ECMWF initial analysis (so it sounds like it's just an unperturbed lower-resolution version of the operational Euro).

 

Sticking with ensemble means is always a good bet, but I'm more of a probabilistic person, I'd rather know the % of members which produce a certain threshold of QPF (or hopefully in this case snow).

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
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humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence"

Exactly, Nate Silver does a great job showing this in his book, The Signal and the Noise"  It should be required reading for all mets and recommended reading for weenies. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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Yes, the EPS system is run at T639 (~30 km) while the GFS is at 27 km, so yes they're comparable. The EPS Control Run is I believe just up-scaled from the ECMWF initial analysis (so it sounds like it's just an unperturbed lower-resolution version of the operational Euro).

 

Sticking with ensemble means is always a good bet, but I'm more of a probabilistic person, I'd rather know the % of members which produce a certain threshold of QPF (or hopefully in this case snow).

I'd love to see a pljume diagram of the Euro members Ptype and amount like Rich Grumm has on his site. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
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I love that guy.

 

Seriously.. if he thinks the storm sucks we're probably getting crushed.

 

We only do weird extreme events of late.

 

He's a man child.  He blocked me on fb, lol..and I never said a thing on his page.  He's still smarting from that Eastern thing.

 

I hope you get an inch of ice!  Deal with it!

 

Cosgrove

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

Careful.

 

:lol:

I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying.  It has been good this winter.  When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first.  Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait.

 

No worries, GFS will be on board.  40 minutes until this forum goes nuts.  Mark my words.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

OK a few things....

you are right about the seasonal trend thing, BUT none of those worked out with the thermal profile because none worked out with the track and qpf.  We have not had a string of lows sitting just to our southeast dumping a ccb over our heads but it was rain.  All these events were crap in some way or another.  This is a vastly different situation.  Does not mean we wont get screwed but probably not in the same way.

Second..your analysis of the precip and temps on the euro, verbatim at 5 days out?  besides euro usually does run a bit warm, its not showing 45 and rain, its just a few degrees too warm, that is something that can correct easily this far out, and as for rates this is the euro not the goofus and NAM, its not going to show those stupid precip rates that never actually verify.  If anything the euro sometimes under does max precip in the ccb.  Finally, you are right there would be precip type issues during lull periods, but as heavier bands came through it would probably be snow.  Its March, this isnt going to be a "clean" snowstorm, its going to be messy, but why are you being such a downer?  I dont think anyone on here thinks this is a lock or even likely at this point but its all we have left so why not follow it and hope?  You are pointing out very good legitimate problems why this might not work out, but honestly, our bigger problem is even getting the storm to track like the ggem/euro show...I will take my chances if we can get that.  My bigger worry is a late phase like the GFS. 

 

 

this really comes down to either it's a bomb or it's a bust; and I've made it clear that this can happen for us if it's a bomb

the Euro  is not a bomb, just a rainstorm with snow mixed at times, not unlike what we've seen this year hence my original post questioning everyone's "excitement"

add to that the fact that we've seen so many storms with bl issues that have failed since the winter of 10/11 modeled with similar temp profiles and the time of the year this thing is coming and I think I've answered your question fairly

so until one of the reliable models shows a bomb with bl temps at 1C or less, I'll wait before getting excited

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

AccuWx is on it

 

Preparation

At this point, it is too early to alter plans, but rather something to keep an eye on and perhaps come up with "Plan B" in case a major blizzard unfolds and wallops areas from Richmond and Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Providence and Cape Cod Wednesday into Thursday.

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needbiggerboat

needbiggerboat

Posted
Posted

this really comes down to either it's a bomb or it's a bust; and I've made it clear that this can happen for us if it's a bomb

 

IMO "bust" is not a good way to look at the possibilities.  A big winter event after March 5 is better viewed as "ending the season with a bomb" or "getting lucky with a perfect set up".  Busting happens during peak snow season, but anything big in March is either gravy or a lucky confluence of synoptic features.

 

Can't really bust when climo doesn't typically support big snow events in March.

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