chris87 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well said. I have no idea what the Euro control run's parameters are, but if it's a Euro ensemble member, are they not at higher or comparable resolution to the GFS operational? All said, I still think the Euro ensemble mean is probably the best to use right now and it still shows us getting respectable QPF (so I've heard from the NYC forum). Yes, the EPS system is run at T639 (~30 km) while the GFS is at 27 km, so yes they're comparable. The EPS Control Run is I believe just up-scaled from the ECMWF initial analysis (so it sounds like it's just an unperturbed lower-resolution version of the operational Euro). Sticking with ensemble means is always a good bet, but I'm more of a probabilistic person, I'd rather know the % of members which produce a certain threshold of QPF (or hopefully in this case snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence" Exactly, Nate Silver does a great job showing this in his book, The Signal and the Noise" It should be required reading for all mets and recommended reading for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yes, the EPS system is run at T639 (~30 km) while the GFS is at 27 km, so yes they're comparable. The EPS Control Run is I believe just up-scaled from the ECMWF initial analysis (so it sounds like it's just an unperturbed lower-resolution version of the operational Euro). Sticking with ensemble means is always a good bet, but I'm more of a probabilistic person, I'd rather know the % of members which produce a certain threshold of QPF (or hopefully in this case snow). I'd love to see a pljume diagram of the Euro members Ptype and amount like Rich Grumm has on his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love that guy. Seriously.. if he thinks the storm sucks we're probably getting crushed. We only do weird extreme events of late. He's a man child. He blocked me on fb, lol..and I never said a thing on his page. He's still smarting from that Eastern thing. I hope you get an inch of ice! Deal with it! Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Soon the NAM will be in range and will be showing 27 and +SN at 0' ASL 50 miles southeast of DC Sweet! That's where I live. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. On this we agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Exactly, Nate Silver does a great job showing this in his book, The Signal and the Noise" It should be required reading for all mets and recommended reading for weenies. Absolutely. It would help a lot of people on AmericanWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Soon the NAM will be in range and will be showing 27 and +SN at 0' ASL 50 miles southeast of DC We should start extrapolating now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Absolutely. It would help a lot of people on AmericanWx. Get off our lawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We should start extrapolating now. 12z NAM is faster and deeper at 500mb through 72-84hrs relative to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Careful. I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying. It has been good this winter. When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first. Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait. No worries, GFS will be on board. 40 minutes until this forum goes nuts. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK a few things.... you are right about the seasonal trend thing, BUT none of those worked out with the thermal profile because none worked out with the track and qpf. We have not had a string of lows sitting just to our southeast dumping a ccb over our heads but it was rain. All these events were crap in some way or another. This is a vastly different situation. Does not mean we wont get screwed but probably not in the same way. Second..your analysis of the precip and temps on the euro, verbatim at 5 days out? besides euro usually does run a bit warm, its not showing 45 and rain, its just a few degrees too warm, that is something that can correct easily this far out, and as for rates this is the euro not the goofus and NAM, its not going to show those stupid precip rates that never actually verify. If anything the euro sometimes under does max precip in the ccb. Finally, you are right there would be precip type issues during lull periods, but as heavier bands came through it would probably be snow. Its March, this isnt going to be a "clean" snowstorm, its going to be messy, but why are you being such a downer? I dont think anyone on here thinks this is a lock or even likely at this point but its all we have left so why not follow it and hope? You are pointing out very good legitimate problems why this might not work out, but honestly, our bigger problem is even getting the storm to track like the ggem/euro show...I will take my chances if we can get that. My bigger worry is a late phase like the GFS. this really comes down to either it's a bomb or it's a bust; and I've made it clear that this can happen for us if it's a bomb the Euro is not a bomb, just a rainstorm with snow mixed at times, not unlike what we've seen this year hence my original post questioning everyone's "excitement" add to that the fact that we've seen so many storms with bl issues that have failed since the winter of 10/11 modeled with similar temp profiles and the time of the year this thing is coming and I think I've answered your question fairly so until one of the reliable models shows a bomb with bl temps at 1C or less, I'll wait before getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 AccuWx is on it PreparationAt this point, it is too early to alter plans, but rather something to keep an eye on and perhaps come up with "Plan B" in case a major blizzard unfolds and wallops areas from Richmond and Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Providence and Cape Cod Wednesday into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Gfs wayyy flatter than the nam thru 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 this really comes down to either it's a bomb or it's a bust; and I've made it clear that this can happen for us if it's a bomb IMO "bust" is not a good way to look at the possibilities. A big winter event after March 5 is better viewed as "ending the season with a bomb" or "getting lucky with a perfect set up". Busting happens during peak snow season, but anything big in March is either gravy or a lucky confluence of synoptic features. Can't really bust when climo doesn't typically support big snow events in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what's with the stronger vort over Cali at 60 hours on the GFS. I notice it keeps getting more and more pronounced with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what's with the stronger vort over Cali at 60 hours on the GFS. I notice it keeps getting more and more pronounced with every run. careful what we wish for before you know it, it'll find a home in the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The key remains the upper low/trough over new england and whether it weakens or moves east enough to allow the shortwave coming east to have room to come north enough to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Changes. Its gonna do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Changes. Its gonna do it... I hate being in my car on my phone...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its gonna do it... I think it is. Trough going neutral tilted at 105hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks like it might grab the gl vort. Heh. Oooh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 00z Euro put the 500 low through NC. 12z GFS is through SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 whoooa here she comes...watch out boy, she'll chew you up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks like it might grab the gl vort. Heh. Oooh This. Hell yes. I keep waiting on it to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 whoooa here she comes...watch out boy, she'll chew you up.... oh, oh, her she comes, she's a man eater! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 that southern vort is insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This run is colder. So calm down mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of nowhere comes a 1035 high in quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.