midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The mar 25 HNECS is where it's at Corrected it for the NE - because Boston needs more snow - they need 3 top 10 storms this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 lol- how well did our last "locked" storm work out? 6z gfs is taking the bigger storm so far n-w that it's starting to have the look of front end snow. Just gotta watch that 1031 hp over ME. It needs to end up being west about 150 miles. Feel better? You don't seem to understand how things work around here. If it's a snow scenario, it's NEVER a locked system. If it's rain or a cutter, you can lock that sob in at 180 hours. Once it goes from a snow situation to a rain storm, you will almost never get it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 If it's a snow scenario, it's NEVER a locked system. Except for 2009-2010 and the upcoming March 25th Palm Sunday Blizzard of 1942 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You don't seem to understand how things work around here. If it's a snow scenario, it's NEVER a locked system. If it's rain or a cutter, you can lock that sob in at 180 hours. Once it goes from a snow situation to a rain storm, you will almost never get it back. Good drill down. I was broad brushing the fact that nothing is locked until it's over but in a very general sense. A cutter is a locked rain event. It's chicago that sweats the details. We just don't know how much rain were getting and if it's going to be 40 degrees or 60 degrees. None of that means a damn thing to us of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Depends upon where the "cutting" takes place. Of course, by this time of year, it really doesn't, but in Dec, Jan, Feb, cutters aren't always all rain for portions of the area. Sometimes they aren't any plain rain, Dec 26, 2012, as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Since this great blocking pattern seems modeled to persist into April, it got me thinking.... Has there ever been a scenario when a suite of LR models feature both a snow storm and a heat wave (maybe 80+)? I'm thinking one last good kick in the nads would be a bust modeled storm (in the short range) and dead-nuts verification of a modeled heat wave (in the long range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 This is so incredibly frustrating, I give up. Wake me up in November. Even in good patterns this year just whatever can go wrong does. We have no +PNA plus we have a block but in a bad spot, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Since this great blocking pattern seems modeled to persist into April, it got me thinking.... Has there ever been a scenario when a suite of LR models feature both a snow storm and a heat wave (maybe 80+)? I'm thinking one last good kick in the nads would be a bust modeled storm (in the short range) and dead-nuts verification of a modeled heat wave (in the long range). In March 1990, when I was living in the DC area, we had a stretch of 5 days of 80+ temps including 2 days in the upper 80's. Within a week after that, we had two accumulating snowfalls. Doubt if the models ran out long range enough to show both scenarios in the same model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 00z overrunning north 12z overrunning south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I guess Euro either cold and dry or warm and wet. Even Highzenberg has lost hope today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Since this great blocking pattern seems modeled to persist into April, it got me thinking.... Has there ever been a scenario when a suite of LR models feature both a snow storm and a heat wave (maybe 80+)? I'm thinking one last good kick in the nads would be a bust modeled storm (in the short range) and dead-nuts verification of a modeled heat wave (in the long range). LOL - Models never bust on heat waves either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 This is so incredibly frustrating, I give up. Wake me up in November. Even in good patterns this year just whatever can go wrong does. We have no +PNA plus we have a block but in a bad spot, ugh. You just pointed out 2 reasons that it's not really a good pattern, especially given its March. We need a great pattern to have a good chance this late in the year, and right now it looks like some factors are not lining up the way we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 00z overrunning north 12z overrunning south Perfect. Like an oscillating guitar string it will settle with us in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 ya im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Jeebus...what are highs next Thurs-Sat on the Euro? Lousy Smarch weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 ya im outTime of death.. See ya in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Still surprised how many will not accept that 5+ day models operate to show just about every and any solution possible rather than locking in on the highest probability and sticking with it until compelling information is presented that necessitates a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 In March 1990, when I was living in the DC area, we had a stretch of 5 days of 80+ temps including 2 days in the upper 80's. Within a week after that, we had two accumulating snowfalls. Doubt if the models ran out long range enough to show both scenarios in the same model run. wow, that's wild. thanks. I can't remember that far back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Time of death.. See ya in the fall You win, you will have the board all to yourself until October now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 You win, you will have the board all to yourself until October now. No he won't. I'm trolling the hell out of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 No he won't. I'm trolling the hell out of severe weather. I'll be sad when I ban you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'll be sad when I ban you. No you won't. As long as you let me back in by next November, I'm fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'll be sad when I ban you. You'll probably need to do the same to me shortly. Can you give me some tips on the best ways to get banned? I want to go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You'll probably need to do the same to me shortly. Can you give me some tips on the best ways to get banned? I want to go out with a bang. Just act like yourself it won't take long . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Still surprised how many will not accept that 5+ day models operate to show just about every and any solution possible rather than locking in on the highest probability and sticking with it until compelling information is presented that necessitates a change. an operational model run is just one simulation, what you are looking for we have in the ensembles, they give a better idea of what the highest probability is if you know how to use them correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'm out. It's been real. Turn off the light on your way out Bob C and Winterwxluvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'm out. It's been real. Turn off the light on your way out Bob C and Winterwxluvr Don't let the door hit you in the a** . You must go down with the ship don't leave early, on April 1st feel free to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Euro snow maps still break the streak in DC with the overrunning. Never give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Still surprised how many will not accept that 5+ day models operate to show just about every and any solution possible rather than locking in on the highest probability and sticking with it until compelling information is presented that necessitates a change. That is an odd translation of human behavior onto a purely numerical computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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