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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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6z GFS 288-312hrs is brilliant.  Feb 5, 2010 on the juice.  

 

Booked. That is sure to come to pass.

 

ETA: Alright, you goaded me into looking. The progression of the low, from the heart of the midwest, then dives into Georgia/SC, then meanders due north into central NC while cold air sinks in, then off the coast, stalls and bombs off Ocean City, looks super logical to me. I will alert friends and relatives now to stock up on all manner of toilet paper and milk... this is a done deal.

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Cracks in the nucleus are beginning to form.   After 12z, I made crumble. 

 

There are still a literal boat load of solutions showing up in the gfs ensembles.  Some are not bad.  I don't think I'll throw in the towel just yet on this one.

 

Of course, the 300 hour storm is pretty much a lock.  Only thing at this point is how much.

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http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfssnowdepth312.gif

 

Book it.

 

There is no way this isn't happening.

25+"  lolz

 

This is an awesome pattern.  At this rate there'll be ghosts to chase into April.

 

It'll be even funnier when this map eventually verifies, but instead of SoPA that bullseye will be right over Boston.

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Cracks in the nucleus are beginning to form. After 12z, I made crumble.

lol- how well did our last "locked" storm work out? 6z gfs is taking the bigger storm so far n-w that it's starting to have the look of front end snow. Just gotta watch that 1031 hp over ME. It needs to end up being west about 150 miles. Feel better?

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lol- how well did our last "locked" storm work out? 6z gfs is taking the bigger storm so far n-w that it's starting to have the look of front end snow. Just gotta watch that 1031 hp over ME. It needs to end up being west about 150 miles. Feel better?

You don't seem to understand how things work around here.

 

If it's a snow scenario, it's NEVER a locked system.    If it's rain or a cutter, you can lock that sob in at 180 hours.   Once it goes from a snow situation to a rain storm, you will almost never get it back.    

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You don't seem to understand how things work around here.

If it's a snow scenario, it's NEVER a locked system. If it's rain or a cutter, you can lock that sob in at 180 hours. Once it goes from a snow situation to a rain storm, you will almost never get it back.

Good drill down. I was broad brushing the fact that nothing is locked until it's over but in a very general sense. A cutter is a locked rain event. It's chicago that sweats the details. We just don't know how much rain were getting and if it's going to be 40 degrees or 60 degrees. None of that means a damn thing to us of course.

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Since this great blocking pattern seems modeled to persist into April, it got me thinking.... Has there ever been a scenario when a suite of LR models feature both a snow storm and a heat wave (maybe 80+)?  I'm thinking one last good kick in the nads would be a bust modeled storm (in the short range) and dead-nuts verification of a modeled heat wave (in the long range).

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