March Med/Long Range Disco

[needbiggerboat]

It's the same at night in March as it is in mid Jan.

 

Not true.  The sudden increase in daylight intensity from DST and the BAU lag in sun waves reaching Earth means the nighttime and the darkness are overall warmer.  Darkness is colder in January.

[ravensrule]

Who is WXsynopsis?.

[WxUSAF]

Good thing some guy named "Randy Legette" seems to know what's up:

***The modules are right. This could be epic. T hose loser at that American weather board or whatever are so full o f it**** I think the modules will be dead on for this one. I just called my sister and told her to begin preparations to secure life and property. Thanks wxsynopsis

Guise, that Ian dude is an admin at the troll board, american weather. FYI. Why do you have to bring that crap here. Go back there where they allow so called "meteorologists" with "degrees" to spread false information.

[WxUSAF]

P.S.  What's the Euro module show?

[stormtracker]

Good thing some guy named "Randy Legette" seems to know what's up:

That is some grade A trolling.

[Grothar of Herndon]

That is some grade A trolling.

 

That site is great D toda T telling some girl she has a face like Joker on Batman! 

 

LOL!

 

And yeah anybody know what the Euro is showing?

[stormtracker]

 

That site is great D toda T telling some girl she has a face like Joker on Batman! 

 

LOL!

 

And yeah anybody know what the Euro is showing?

 

Where's Ian when you need him.

 

Strictly going from the NYC forum, overunning looks to be theirs on this run.

[WxUSAF]

Maybe Bob or someone with secret Euro powers can tell us more, but this panel for next Monday morning suggests the overrunning snow potential still exists.  Having it come at night would help immensely.

 

[stormtracker]

Well, according to NYC, they say its a hit up there with plenty cold and over .5

[WinterWxLuvr]

Maybe Bob or someone with secret Euro powers can tell us more, but this panel for next Monday morning suggests the overrunning snow potential still exists.  Having it come at night would help immensely.

 

 

One would think that would have to be OK for some of the area.  What's the precip amounts?

 

And does the Euro have its usual cutter?

[wxmeddler]

Maybe Bob or someone with secret Euro powers can tell us more, but this panel for next Monday morning suggests the overrunning snow potential still exists.  Having it come at night would help immensely.

 

Light precip, marginal BL. You know you can look it up on the wundermap right? http://wxug.us/12989

[WxUSAF]

Light precip, marginal BL. You know you can look it up on the wundermap right? http://wxug.us/12989

I do, but was waiting for someone with paid access to give the exact details.  

[Bob Chill]

.75-1 around the cities. Temps suck. 850's barely below @ iad/bwi and all above at dca. I don't have time to go map crazy. Looks like rain to me. Surface never below 1.0. Even night angle can overcome that.

[WxUSAF]

.75-1 around the cities. Temps suck. 850's barely below @ iad/bwi and all above at dca. I don't have time to go map crazy. Looks like rain to me. Surface never below 1.0. Even night angle can overcome that.

35F rain.  Awesome.  

[Bob Chill]

hgr is the closest I can find with a decent chance. Looks like tracker is driving us all up there for a night on the town.

MON 00Z 18-MAR   0.9    -1.5    1018      99      98    0.34     556     542    MON 06Z 18-MAR   0.4    -1.8    1019      99      96    0.25     557     542    MON 12Z 18-MAR   0.3    -2.8    1018      97     100    0.27     556     541    MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.3    -3.5    1017      91      99    0.59     554     540    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -0.3    -2.4    1017      95       9    0.17     557     544    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.4     1.5    1014      98      46    0.01     555     543    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.2    -5.6    1014      92      21    0.03     545     533   

[ORH_wxman]

Looks solid for the N MD hills from 144-150-156...a little warm for I-95...not well timed with the best precip prob late morning. Despite that, it actualyl shows the 2m temps below freezing in the N MD hills. So probably even wet snow in the suburbs too.

 

The stuff from 132-138 is a bit lighter, but its not quite as cold in the BL. The 850 line stays pretty close to DC...so north would look the best.

[ORH_wxman]

I would also add that this evolution is probably going to change only 88 more times between now and the weekend.

[ravensrule]

I would also add that this evolution is probably going to change only 88 more times between now and the weekend.

I was about to say that. Unfortunately it will probably get 88 times worse for us around here.

[Ji]

I would also add that this evolution is probably going to change only 88 more times between now and the weekend.

JYO(Leesburg looks cold for the event) temps around 32-33. It keeps going north at 00zz and south at 12z

 

 

SUN 12Z 17-MAR   0.1     1.0    1020      87      12    0.00     558     542    SUN 18Z 17-MAR   5.2     0.4    1019      67     100    0.02     559     544    MON 00Z 18-MAR   1.5    -0.5    1018      99      99    0.22     558     544    MON 06Z 18-MAR   0.9    -0.7    1018      99     100    0.24     559     544    MON 12Z 18-MAR   0.8    -1.3    1017      98      99    0.17     558     544    MON 18Z 18-MAR   1.0    -1.5    1016      95      98    0.42     556     543    TUE 00Z 19-MAR   0.6    -0.8    1016      96       4    0.12     559     546    TUE 06Z 19-MAR   0.4     4.9    1015      98      46    0.01     557     545    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.5    -2.5    1015      98       9    0.02     550     538    

[WinterWxLuvr]

hgr is the closest I can find with a decent chance. Looks like tracker is driving us all up there for a night on the town.

 

 

MON 00Z 18-MAR   0.9    -1.5    1018      99      98    0.34     556     542    MON 06Z 18-MAR   0.4    -1.8    1019      99      96    0.25     557     542    MON 12Z 18-MAR   0.3    -2.8    1018      97     100    0.27     556     541    MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.3    -3.5    1017      91      99    0.59     554     540    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -0.3    -2.4    1017      95       9    0.17     557     544    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.4     1.5    1014      98      46    0.01     555     543    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.2    -5.6    1014      92      21    0.03     545     533   

Do you get any info for KOKV or KMRB?

[Bob Chill]

Do you get any info for KOKV or KMRB?

 

Here's okv:

 

 

MON 06Z 18-MAR   0.4    -1.0    1018      99     100    0.28     558     544    MON 12Z 18-MAR   0.2    -2.4    1017      98     100    0.22     557     543    MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.7    -2.7    1016      93      97    0.49     555     542    TUE 00Z 19-MAR   0.0    -1.7    1017      98       4    0.10     559     545    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.1     4.5    1014      99      49    0.01     556     545    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.0    -4.6    1015      91      13    0.02     548     536   

 

 

The only soundings I can find as a point/click is iad. There's a lat/lon function with a big disclaimer about "not being that accurate". lol. I stick with iad so I don't end up in a weenie witch hunt. 

[Bob Chill]

I would also add that this evolution is probably going to change only 88 more times between now and the weekend.

 

agreed but both globals have been showing best rates in the warmer side. I think the most supportive thermals are going to be N no matter what happens here. I can't see the cities having bl temps aob freezing AND getting good rates at the same time. We have to just hope we get a period of heavy enough to stick for a bit. That's my 2 cents anyway. Prob not worth a penny. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Here's okv:

 

 

MON 06Z 18-MAR   0.4    -1.0    1018      99     100    0.28     558     544    MON 12Z 18-MAR   0.2    -2.4    1017      98     100    0.22     557     543    MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.7    -2.7    1016      93      97    0.49     555     542    TUE 00Z 19-MAR   0.0    -1.7    1017      98       4    0.10     559     545    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.1     4.5    1014      99      49    0.01     556     545    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.0    -4.6    1015      91      13    0.02     548     536   

 

 

The only soundings I can find as a point/click is iad. There's a lat/lon function with a big disclaimer about "not being that accurate". lol. I stick with iad so I don't end up in a weenie witch hunt. 

Doesn't look all that bad, if I'm reading it right.  I assume the first column is ground temp and second is 850?  One would think that the 12z to 18z period Monday might be good with that much precip falling during that 6 hours.

[Bob Chill]

Doesn't look all that bad, if I'm reading it right.  I assume the first column is ground temp and second is 850?  One would think that the 12z to 18z period Monday might be good with that much precip falling during that 6 hours.

 

Yea, a line from you to hgr looks pretty good verbatim. Parrs looks ok too (psu land and westminster etc). The rest of us are facing another same ole same ole. 

 

It's nice seeing a colder solution again though. I don't like the flow all that much. w-e riding along a boundary. Sure would be nice if we can get a dome and some amp before it starts. Just a little more sw trajectory with a some sort of hp nosing down would make a huge difference. Odds clearly favor nw + elevation. Cities shouldn't be too excited. 

[midatlanticweather]

Yea, a line from you to hgr looks pretty good verbatim. Parrs looks ok too (psu land and westminster etc). The rest of us are facing another same ole same ole. 

 

It's nice seeing a colder solution again though. I don't like the flow all that much. w-e riding along a boundary. Sure would be nice if we can get a dome and some amp before it starts. Just a little more sw trajectory with a some sort of hp nosing down would make a huge difference. Odds clearly favor nw + elevation. Cities shouldn't be too excited. 

A lot of if's usually means a NOPE - Not for you - scenario

 

Reality here is that we are in Spring and no one needs to get hopes up... they would only be dashed.

[WinterWxLuvr]

A lot of if's usually means a NOPE - Not for you - scenario

Reality here is that we are in Spring and no one needs to get hopes up... they would only be dashed.

Not a very science based post. The reality is that models are emotionless. When a model shows a scenario, especially the model many consider the best, it is certainly possible. The other reality is that we are barely into met spring. Snow is possible. November is met fall. Is snow in November a shocker?

Whether it happens is up in the air. This weather event has nothing at all to do with the previous 50. There is no usually. It is a unique weather situation. At this point, it can still end in a lot of different ways.

[FrederickWX]

Not a very science based post. The reality is that models are emotionless. When a model shows a scenario, especially the model many consider the best, it is certainly possible. The other reality is that we are barely into met spring. Snow is possible. November is met fall. Is snow in November a shocker?

Whether it happens is up in the air. This weather event has nothing at all to do with the previous 50. There is no usually. It is a unique weather situation. At this point, it can still end in a lot of different ways.

Rain.

[Bob Chill]

A lot of if's usually means a NOPE - Not for you - scenario

 

Reality here is that we are in Spring and no one needs to get hopes up... they would only be dashed.

 

I didn't say sleep on it though. We just had a storm bust 2 hours after it started. Using 5 day lead model runs to make a deterministic call is precarious at best. 

 

Below normal temps with precip in the area possibly falling at night should be watched even if it's low prob.

[Ji]

I didn't say sleep on it though. We just had a storm bust 2 hours after it started. Using 5 day lead model runs to make a deterministic call is precarious at best. 

 

Below normal temps with precip in the area possibly falling at night should be watched even if it's low prob.

here is my first call

DC T-1

IAD 2-4

JYO 4-8

Rockville 8-12

[Bob Chill]

^^ best poster on Amwx.