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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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fwiw- sounding at iad goes to hell around around 18z on the 18th. Still looks like snow but who cares with the nuclear fusion sun angle. Definitely rain by 12z on the 18th.

 

Getting snow in an over running scenario requires a really anomalous air mass this time of year. I just don't see how we get that cold without ul support and some dynamics. This setup would have a much better chance during met winter. Especially Jan. But the euro has a warm bl bias so we can lose a few degrees and still get hammered. All in.

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euro ens don't fully agree with the op. mean says no cutter but I can't really tell what kind of track the mean has. Miller b'ish too late to help is my guess.

looks like it has the overrunning milder here and then turns it up the coast after for a bit of a northeast hit. 

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looks like it has the overrunning milder here and then turns it up the coast after for a bit of a northeast hit. 

 

well, if you had to choose between the op and ens irt to sensible wx....the ens look like a much safer bet given the neverending string of bad endings we have had.

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well, if you had to choose between the op and ens irt to sensible wx....the ens look like a much safer bet given the neverending string of bad endings we have had.

At least the -4c 850 line is still hanging out around us at 360.

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Yeah, I agree. You, me and Bob Chill need to hold it together. We are the nucleus of this cult.

Anyone who who has even just a modest understanding of what we need to see in modeland to have a chance would recognize that what is being shown has a chance. More than just a slim chance too. Likely? Is it ever in march? Heck, is it ever ever likely anymore? Lol

Remember how many different looks at h5 we saw with Saddern at this range on in? I'm all in until I'm all out. Sleeping on this setup is silly even if odds are stacked.

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Everybody in this thread believes theres a chance or they wouldn't pop in every day.....

Yup. And we all know the "I won't get interested until 24 hours before!" stuff and the "bring on the 60's!!" stuff is all a lie. Let's not act like most here aren't still constantly hitting refresh on NCEP every 6 hours, checking the Euro, etc.
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