Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the Euro Control shows the biggest snowstorm I have ever seen. 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow. Have not even looked at a model for a couple of days. I assumed it was over. Then log in this morning and look at the 0Z suite. All of the models with the exception of the GFS are a strong signal for a major hit. And the 6Z GFS trended towards the rest of guidance. Exciting couple of days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the Euro Control shows the biggest snowstorm I have ever seen. 2-3 feet I'll hug that today! Seriously, are we at the point where all we need is the GFS trend to continue moving towards the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to be a sad place after the euphoria dies when the 12z Euro comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the Euro Control shows the biggest snowstorm I have ever seen. 2-3 feet lol- looks like 50-60mph gusts too. Pure destruction. Too bad it means virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's like 5 days out. Get a grip. Why? This is all we have left, there's 30 seconds left and were down by 7, punting is not an option even if it is 4th and 20 at our own 10 yard line. Might as well go for it. Just having fun, relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to be a sad place after the euphoria dies when the 12z Euro comes in. i dont know man. It has to snow again in DC right? Were not going to miss every event for the rest of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just having fun, relax. Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'll hug that today! Seriously, are we at the point where all we need is the GFS trend to continue moving towards the EURO? That and 12 more identical Euro runs. We got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. this storm will save winter like 2008-2009 and will lead into a historical 2013-2014. 3-6 inches Dec 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. You are in rare form today. This isn't like you. You ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You are in rare form today. This isn't like you. You ok? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 i dont know man. It has to snow again in DC right? Were not going to miss every event for the rest of our lives When all else fails, remember the winter of 97-98. At least it wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Huh? Just having fun. Don't yell at me or kill me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK, i'll just blindly go along with everyone else and be intimidated by all your comments you people must be in la-la land every storm this year modeled to have warm bl temps have had warm bl temps if you expect temps to magically cool as we get closer with all other things remaining the same, you're nuts per accuwx maps, BWI gets around .28-.34" qpf over the 6 hour periods...average that out over 6 hours and you're at .05-.06" that will NOT do it for us I am absolutely right when I say w/o a bomb to cool the atmosphere, it's a cold rain or ra/sn mix now be sure to take your cheap shots and feel big OK a few things.... you are right about the seasonal trend thing, BUT none of those worked out with the thermal profile because none worked out with the track and qpf. We have not had a string of lows sitting just to our southeast dumping a ccb over our heads but it was rain. All these events were crap in some way or another. This is a vastly different situation. Does not mean we wont get screwed but probably not in the same way. Second..your analysis of the precip and temps on the euro, verbatim at 5 days out? besides euro usually does run a bit warm, its not showing 45 and rain, its just a few degrees too warm, that is something that can correct easily this far out, and as for rates this is the euro not the goofus and NAM, its not going to show those stupid precip rates that never actually verify. If anything the euro sometimes under does max precip in the ccb. Finally, you are right there would be precip type issues during lull periods, but as heavier bands came through it would probably be snow. Its March, this isnt going to be a "clean" snowstorm, its going to be messy, but why are you being such a downer? I dont think anyone on here thinks this is a lock or even likely at this point but its all we have left so why not follow it and hope? You are pointing out very good legitimate problems why this might not work out, but honestly, our bigger problem is even getting the storm to track like the ggem/euro show...I will take my chances if we can get that. My bigger worry is a late phase like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just having fun. Don't yell at me or kill me Fun is not allowed. I'm sending you a case of anthrax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 To be honest, I'm happy to see things change on the Euro, etc...but you can't really blame Deb...I mean Mitch. We've been teased and burned all year. 5 days this winter is like 100 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fun is not allowed. I'm sending you a case of anthrax. I'm making Larry Cosgrove's forecast the only forecast and weather guidance available to you from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm making Larry Cosgrove's forecast the only forecast and weather guidance available to you from here on out. I love that guy. Seriously.. if he thinks the storm sucks we're probably getting crushed. We only do weird extreme events of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 i dont know man. It has to snow again in DC right? Were not going to miss every event for the rest of our lives 1st of all you have 10" this winter..I have 2" 2nd - It does not have to snow here again...we could be the new RIC/Asheville/Portland OR where we get virtual shutouts unless we have a nino or a neutral after nino....Unlikely we get shut out in a Nino unless it is 97-98 type strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 lol- looks like 50-60mph gusts too. Pure destruction. Too bad it means virtually nothing. Out of curiosity, where can I find this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 To be honest, I'm happy to see things change on the Euro, etc...but you can't really blame Deb...I mean Mitch. We've been teased and burned all year. 5 days this winter is like 100 days. I don't blame anyone for being pessimistic or skeptical, but on the other hand, for the last 2 years we have played this "game" of...dont worry if the models show the storm (north, south, east, west) at 5 days...they will trend, and its not happening. I have thought a few times over that period how much better the models are now once they get a handle on the pattern and lock in. They do not shift as often as they used too. I am not saying they don't or won't here, but that expecting them to be wrong once they lock into a general idea, is not that safe a bet anymore. We have lost that bet over and over, lets try out hand once where the models do have us in the general target area 5 days out and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? You have to be an Accuweather Pro member to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? accuwx pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. I actually think the op run looks better then the control run, not sure what Ji was looking at. The control also has the big amped up storm I expect around mid month, but its an apps runner. That is a threat, I just think there will be a major amplification of the trough before the whole pattern breaks down with a bombing low, no idea where it will actually track as the blocking will be breaking down by then, it could cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. Much lower resolution but on rare occasions it has sniffed out a storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK a few things.... you are right about the seasonal trend thing, BUT none of those worked out with the thermal profile because none worked out with the track and qpf. We have not had a string of lows sitting just to our southeast dumping a ccb over our heads but it was rain. All these events were crap in some way or another. This is a vastly different situation. Does not mean we wont get screwed but probably not in the same way. Second..your analysis of the precip and temps on the euro, verbatim at 5 days out? besides euro usually does run a bit warm, its not showing 45 and rain, its just a few degrees too warm, that is something that can correct easily this far out, and as for rates this is the euro not the goofus and NAM, its not going to show those stupid precip rates that never actually verify. If anything the euro sometimes under does max precip in the ccb. Finally, you are right there would be precip type issues during lull periods, but as heavier bands came through it would probably be snow. Its March, this isnt going to be a "clean" snowstorm, its going to be messy, but why are you being such a downer? I dont think anyone on here thinks this is a lock or even likely at this point but its all we have left so why not follow it and hope? You are pointing out very good legitimate problems why this might not work out, but honestly, our bigger problem is even getting the storm to track like the ggem/euro show...I will take my chances if we can get that. My bigger worry is a late phase like the GFS. Yes...ideally and this is obvious wishcasting, in order to get a serious event, we want the ULL to take SE track and then get pulled north into the eastern TN valley...and then start drifting E/NE...I'm not sure this is an option though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Much lower resolution but on rare occasions it has sniffed out a storm first. I doubt it. You guys have really selective memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I doubt it. You guys have really selective memories. I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.