Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is going to be a sad place after the euphoria dies when the 12z Euro comes in. i dont know man. It has to snow again in DC right? Were not going to miss every event for the rest of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just having fun, relax. Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'll hug that today! Seriously, are we at the point where all we need is the GFS trend to continue moving towards the EURO? That and 12 more identical Euro runs. We got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. this storm will save winter like 2008-2009 and will lead into a historical 2013-2014. 3-6 inches Dec 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weenie phrase of the year. Next up, hey Deb. You are in rare form today. This isn't like you. You ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You are in rare form today. This isn't like you. You ok? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 i dont know man. It has to snow again in DC right? Were not going to miss every event for the rest of our lives When all else fails, remember the winter of 97-98. At least it wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Huh? Just having fun. Don't yell at me or kill me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK, i'll just blindly go along with everyone else and be intimidated by all your comments you people must be in la-la land every storm this year modeled to have warm bl temps have had warm bl temps if you expect temps to magically cool as we get closer with all other things remaining the same, you're nuts per accuwx maps, BWI gets around .28-.34" qpf over the 6 hour periods...average that out over 6 hours and you're at .05-.06" that will NOT do it for us I am absolutely right when I say w/o a bomb to cool the atmosphere, it's a cold rain or ra/sn mix now be sure to take your cheap shots and feel big OK a few things.... you are right about the seasonal trend thing, BUT none of those worked out with the thermal profile because none worked out with the track and qpf. We have not had a string of lows sitting just to our southeast dumping a ccb over our heads but it was rain. All these events were crap in some way or another. This is a vastly different situation. Does not mean we wont get screwed but probably not in the same way. Second..your analysis of the precip and temps on the euro, verbatim at 5 days out? besides euro usually does run a bit warm, its not showing 45 and rain, its just a few degrees too warm, that is something that can correct easily this far out, and as for rates this is the euro not the goofus and NAM, its not going to show those stupid precip rates that never actually verify. If anything the euro sometimes under does max precip in the ccb. Finally, you are right there would be precip type issues during lull periods, but as heavier bands came through it would probably be snow. Its March, this isnt going to be a "clean" snowstorm, its going to be messy, but why are you being such a downer? I dont think anyone on here thinks this is a lock or even likely at this point but its all we have left so why not follow it and hope? You are pointing out very good legitimate problems why this might not work out, but honestly, our bigger problem is even getting the storm to track like the ggem/euro show...I will take my chances if we can get that. My bigger worry is a late phase like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just having fun. Don't yell at me or kill me Fun is not allowed. I'm sending you a case of anthrax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 To be honest, I'm happy to see things change on the Euro, etc...but you can't really blame Deb...I mean Mitch. We've been teased and burned all year. 5 days this winter is like 100 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fun is not allowed. I'm sending you a case of anthrax. I'm making Larry Cosgrove's forecast the only forecast and weather guidance available to you from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm making Larry Cosgrove's forecast the only forecast and weather guidance available to you from here on out. I love that guy. Seriously.. if he thinks the storm sucks we're probably getting crushed. We only do weird extreme events of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 lol- looks like 50-60mph gusts too. Pure destruction. Too bad it means virtually nothing. Out of curiosity, where can I find this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 To be honest, I'm happy to see things change on the Euro, etc...but you can't really blame Deb...I mean Mitch. We've been teased and burned all year. 5 days this winter is like 100 days. I don't blame anyone for being pessimistic or skeptical, but on the other hand, for the last 2 years we have played this "game" of...dont worry if the models show the storm (north, south, east, west) at 5 days...they will trend, and its not happening. I have thought a few times over that period how much better the models are now once they get a handle on the pattern and lock in. They do not shift as often as they used too. I am not saying they don't or won't here, but that expecting them to be wrong once they lock into a general idea, is not that safe a bet anymore. We have lost that bet over and over, lets try out hand once where the models do have us in the general target area 5 days out and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? You have to be an Accuweather Pro member to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Out of curiosity, where can I find this? accuwx pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. I actually think the op run looks better then the control run, not sure what Ji was looking at. The control also has the big amped up storm I expect around mid month, but its an apps runner. That is a threat, I just think there will be a major amplification of the trough before the whole pattern breaks down with a bombing low, no idea where it will actually track as the blocking will be breaking down by then, it could cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I may be a Deb but really the Euro control talk is pointless. It's like an ensemble member with less skill than the op. Much lower resolution but on rare occasions it has sniffed out a storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Much lower resolution but on rare occasions it has sniffed out a storm first. I doubt it. You guys have really selective memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I doubt it. You guys have really selective memories. I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times. I think you already pointed out it's lower resolution. The NAM did pretty well at 84 in Feb 2010 but no one uses it at that range with any confidence at this pt. This is one of those unchecked Ji'isms that eventually runs rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying. It has been good this winter. When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first. Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think you already pointed out it's lower resolution. The NAM did pretty well at 84 in Feb 2010 but no one uses it at that range with any confidence at this pt. This is one of those unchecked Ji'isms that eventually runs rampant. Careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I am not the expert on it but abc1234 follows it like gospel and he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times. humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 humans suffer from severe sampling bias when qualitative methods such as "he said it has sniffed out a big storm first a few times" are used....we're also pretty terrible at separating "skill" from "coincidence" Well said. I have no idea what the Euro control run's parameters are, but if it's a Euro ensemble member, are they not at higher or comparable resolution to the GFS operational? All said, I still think the Euro ensemble mean is probably the best to use right now and it still shows us getting respectable QPF (so I've heard from the NYC forum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying. It has been good this winter. When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first. Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait. So true. Unless that baby is on board, this may be our last show. Pass the sunscreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think you already pointed out it's lower resolution. The NAM did pretty well at 84 in Feb 2010 but no one uses it at that range with any confidence at this pt. This is one of those unchecked Ji'isms that eventually runs rampant.To you and Chris 87 let me be perfectly clear I lean towards Mitch on this one and think there is only a small chance of this working out. I also don't think the control run is good but people were discussing it so I threw in the things i knew about it. Now this is a weather board, so let's have fun tracking this and if it doesn't work we know except for Ian, Mark, Kenny and Yoda we will not be talking to each other for 9 Months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think anybody who would say that they are OK with the GFS not being there yet would be lying. It has been good this winter. When, if, it goes the Euro (and others) direction, I'm diving in head first. Right now, I'm just catching rays laying on the beach, watching others play shark bait. But at this point they are just a couple hundred feet apart and not worlds apart. So we're not in the "one of them is going to bust bad" type of comparison. Both solutions are similar and possible. The one thing that has grown is the decent sized storm signal. The majority of the globals all show a pretty big storm on or around the coast in relatively similar fashion. I think confidence in a storm actually developing and affecting more than the SC coast is "ok" at this point. The rest is totally up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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