March Med/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us

Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin.

[Heisy]

Even at 240 hours there is a low out in the southwest with the day 10 storm drawing cold air, there is going to be many opportunities it looks like for snow. 

[psuhoffman]

Really Euro?? Hundreds of pools in the area are being de-winterized in my profession starting this week. Last nights solution could cause serious problems.

It would be a national tragedy if some rich yuppies who couldn't wait till April to prep their pools had to spend some money on repairs. Lead story on nightline.

[MDstorm]

It would be a national tragedy if some rich yuppies who couldn't wait till April to prep their pools had to spend some money on repairs. Lead story on nightline.

Lol. What do you think, PSU? Is it too much to ask for a storm not to trend north this winter?

MDstorm

[mitchnick]

Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin.

what about surface temps?

and if anyone says don't worry about surface temps you need your head examined after last week's debocle

it is impossible for me to believe that nothing more than a 30 degree surface prog will work as we need wiggle room

[WxUSAF]

Euro ensembles say the Op is not out to lunch on our St Patty's day cold rain. 

[psuhoffman]

what about surface temps?

and if anyone says don't worry about surface temps you need your head examined after last week's debocle

it is impossible for me to believe that nothing more than a 30 degree surface prog will work as we need wiggle room

Can't get surface temps that far put but critical thicknesses imply round 2 would be snow. It's an anomalous cold air mass unlike last time.

[psuhoffman]

what about surface temps?

and if anyone says don't worry about surface temps you need your head examined after last week's debocle

it is impossible for me to believe that nothing more than a 30 degree surface prog will work as we need wiggle room

We need a qpf bomb for this to work. Last storm would have been better if bwi had 1.5 qpf in 12 hours instead of .75.

[ORH_wxman]

Can't get surface temps that far put but critical thicknesses imply round 2 would be snow. It's an anomalous cold air mass unlike last time.

 

 

FRZ line runs from like DCA-BWI on the Euro at 12z next Tuesday (204h)...upper 20s in the hills in your area. Its def a lot colder than anything it ever showed for the last bust....but the time frame alone obviously makes it mostly fodder at this point.

[Bob Chill]

I think the sketchiest part of the euro run is the phase. ss vort at the tail of the overunning phases with a fairly vigorous ns vort diving through the midwest.

Looks like we start as rain with the waa side of the storm and change to snow as the coastal get's cranking. @ hr 186 we are near 40 degrees with 35-40 degree air up through pa. Gets plenty cold though after that and there is air to tap from 198 onward. hr204 is a beautiful set of panels.

[NOVAForecaster]

I refuse to get pulled back in... But wow is that Euro pattern on the Op and the ensembles juicy and ripe.

[Ji]

meh...the big cold arctic high the euro had on  prior runs is gone. Losing confidence a bit

[stormtracker]

looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us

how'd. You figure this?

[Bob Chill]

I should have added in my last post that I highly doubt the euro.

Gfs-euro start diverging with the clipperish system late week. Euro takes it way above us now and gfs is trying to push it below. Won't matter snow wise if it gets below us unless there are drastic changes. After that they are in complete disagreement

[mitchnick]

how'd. You figure this?

192 hrs, slp in WVA and one reforming off VA capes with 850 0-line over top of us, which we all know won't work this time of year

216 hrs it's cold over us but slp is sitting off of N NJ around 100-150 miles, well north of us

this has the bust potential look of 3/01 written all over it

[EastCoast NPZ]

192 hrs, slp in WVA and one reforming off VA capes with 850 0-line over top of us, which we all know won't work this time of year

216 hrs it's cold over us but slp is sitting off of N NJ around 100-150 miles, well north of us

this has the bust potential look of 3/01 written all over it

 

But wrap-around is gonna work this time.

[psuhoffman]

FRZ line runs from like DCA-BWI on the Euro at 12z next Tuesday (204h)...upper 20s in the hills in your area. Its def a lot colder than anything it ever showed for the last bust....but the time frame alone obviously makes it mostly fodder at this point.

Yea it's just something to look at right now. I think we all know its a 1/20 year event we would need so its beyond a long shot.

[mitchnick]

But wrap-around is gonna work this time.

anyone who believes that ain't wrapped very tight!

[Bob Chill]

anyone who believes that ain't wrapped very tight!

It's not really wraparound though. It's the nw&w side of the comma from the ull. The ull is closed just to our se over seva and then crawls up the coast. I'm not implying in any way shape or form that I believe this is the correct solution because it would be insane. Well, more insane than I already am. But verbatim it's a powerful ull/850 combo and we are in a prime spot.

[stormtracker]

I'm gonna be serious for a moment here.....I think most of us know this won't pan out and we're being bitterly sarcastic because well, we're bitter and I think it's sort of cathartic and "healing" to do it.   Personally, I think we're done and of course the Euro is a fail.  But it's sniffing something out....5 runs in a row?  Same general idea?  It's a storm signal...not a snow signal.   It's worth noting.  

[kurtstack]

It's not really wraparound though. It's the nw&w side of the comma from the ull. The ull is closed just to our se over seva and then crawls up the coast. I'm not implying in any way shape or form that I believe this is the correct solution because it would be insane. Well, more insane than I already am. But verbatim it's a powerful ull/850 combo and we are in a prime spot.

Yep.  The euro shows exactly what's needed to get snow in DC this time of year.  And we all know that everything this time of year is a thread the needle 1 in 20 is probably giving it too much of a chance at this point.  I'd say 1/100 for dca, maybe 1/20 for some of the elevated locations.

[Bob Chill]

Last bit of info before I shut up and 12z takes it away anyway.

 

IAD sounding supports snow from 186 on. All important levels below freezing. Especially the 1000-900 layer of the sandwich. 192 is probably the worst with 850's too close for comfort. 204 sounding is a thing of beauty. Upper 20's with wind driven cold smoke.

[psuhoffman]

I know usually a low bombing to our east is bad news but if u are rooting for the miracle that is what we need. I doubt this far into march a low developing to our south and waa precip will work out. It's too late for that. We need the miracle now. A low bombing just east of us putting the western Ccb right over the area with crashing heights under the h5. That's our only shot.

[Bob Chill]

A low bombing just east of us putting the western Ccb right over the area with crashing heights under the h5. That's our only shot.

 

And that's precisely what the euro shows. Only 8 days to go.

[WinterWxLuvr]

And that's precisely what the euro shows. Only 8 days to go.

 

I guess the only thing left is to polish up the amounts.  Refine it somewhere between 0 and 36"?

[wxdude64]

I guess the only thing left is to polish up the amounts.  Refine it somewhere between 0 and 36"?

Yes, somewhere in that neighborhood.

[needbiggerboat]

In following the conversation it seems there is a contingent that feels "it can't snow because it's late March" or "because we busted last week".

 

It certainly can snow in late March, and IMO each set up should be taken individually by looking at all the synoptic features and variables surrounding the potential evolution.  Don't let paradigms cloud something that is possible with the delicate combination of the right elements.

 

Biggest negative IMO is that this is all still a D7+ simulated computer scenario.  Much can change between now and 24 hours out from the event.

 

I'd rather it not snow, but even so I certainly accept that it can snow next week.

[Ji]

Last bit of info before I shut up and 12z takes it away anyway.

 

IAD sounding supports snow from 186 on. All important levels below freezing. Especially the 1000-900 layer of the sandwich. 192 is probably the worst with 850's too close for comfort. 204 sounding is a thing of beauty. Upper 20's with wind driven cold smoke.

we did get 20-30 inches late March 1942 right?

[CheesyPoofs]

In following the conversation it seems there is a contingent that feels "it can't snow because it's late March" or "because we busted last week".

It certainly can snow in late March, and IMO each set up should be taken individually by looking at all the synoptic features....

Sure, some may not want it to snow anymore, but I'm willing to bet the majority of those who are posting "bring on spring! The 60's this weekend were just too good! No more snow!" will be spending hours tracking this and hoping for snow if it turns out that this becomes a truly legit threat.

The "it can't snow, I don't want snow, it won't snow, give up, sun angle!!!!!" posts are getting silly at this point. I'm pretty sure no one here thinks its January...we know it's March 11th, we know it's a relative long shot, etc...but we also don't need to be reminded about that every other post.

[psuhoffman]

0-50. Don't wanna use a scalpel when a battle axe will do.