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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Its not as awful as some make it out to be. But at this time range, and basically 5+ days out, I will always go with the Euro. Most of the time it sniffs out these threats early, and often has the general idea correct. GFS typically flips and flops its way to figuring it out over time.

Yes I've noticed that also. Let's hope it gets back to the snow threat again.

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If it's on the Euro DT will be hyping it beyond belief and banning anyone that questions his love of the Euro and modelology.

 

 

The models just want to see us be tortured. This is absolutely ridiculous. If I get pulled in again and we get kicked again...somebody just end me lol. I am not all in or even 1 chip in on this one. I won't be until 2 hours before it. 

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You make a good point. I've always been surprised at how well I do in storms where 95 is the dividing line - though it just seems like any way that we can get screwed this year it's happening. I will probably peak once a day or so at this thread to see if it's still on the models...but not lost sleep for me.

We shall see! I just hope it's not a situation where we think it has awesome potential up until 12 hours before. Hopefully it's either a LEGIT threat once we get close in or not even a possibility - I don't want any of this yes, yes, yes, yes...HELL NO kind of deals.

Sounds like you're in to me.
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Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it.

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Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it.

Not you too.

 

It is not going to snow within 100 miles of the cities. 

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I am assuming the models are wrong yet again. I am still digging out from the last modeled blizzard so perhaps Fozz is on to something.

Hard to see it not favoring elevation but there is some like 35-50 miles from here. Air mass could be a colder look but also 10+ later so might cancel out. Who knows. Euro hit 95 a few times from far out with last. My personal thought is better if we don't get strung along for another week long session but if its going to be cold might as well snow.

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NAM at 81 is within range of the beginning of Thursday's 0z GFS run whose 144h panel will probably or not show precipitating of some various type from a sliding coastal cutter. Too soon to worry about column layer boundaries.

hmmm, I wonder why I never thought of that  :yikes:

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I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex

 

Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know.

 

Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles?

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I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex

 

Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know.

 

Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles?

Low sitting over the Southern Mid Atlantic dropping 6 mb from 192-198.

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Another classic battle I guess.  GFS shows temps near 50 during that time period. As much as I'd love for the Euro to be correct and salvage this winter, we have to admit climatology is definitely on the side of the GFS.  It doesn't look like there will be a cold air mass coming in before this storm.

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