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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it.

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Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it.

Not you too.

 

It is not going to snow within 100 miles of the cities. 

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I am assuming the models are wrong yet again. I am still digging out from the last modeled blizzard so perhaps Fozz is on to something.

Hard to see it not favoring elevation but there is some like 35-50 miles from here. Air mass could be a colder look but also 10+ later so might cancel out. Who knows. Euro hit 95 a few times from far out with last. My personal thought is better if we don't get strung along for another week long session but if its going to be cold might as well snow.

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NAM at 81 is within range of the beginning of Thursday's 0z GFS run whose 144h panel will probably or not show precipitating of some various type from a sliding coastal cutter. Too soon to worry about column layer boundaries.

hmmm, I wonder why I never thought of that  :yikes:

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I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex

 

Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know.

 

Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles?

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I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex

 

Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know.

 

Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles?

Low sitting over the Southern Mid Atlantic dropping 6 mb from 192-198.

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Another classic battle I guess.  GFS shows temps near 50 during that time period. As much as I'd love for the Euro to be correct and salvage this winter, we have to admit climatology is definitely on the side of the GFS.  It doesn't look like there will be a cold air mass coming in before this storm.

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looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us

Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin.

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Really Euro?? Hundreds of pools in the area are being de-winterized in my profession starting this week. Last nights solution could cause serious problems.

It would be a national tragedy if some rich yuppies who couldn't wait till April to prep their pools had to spend some money on repairs. Lead story on nightline.

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Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin.

what about surface temps?

and if anyone says don't worry about surface temps you need your head examined after last week's debocle

it is impossible for me to believe that nothing more than a 30 degree surface prog will work as we need wiggle room

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