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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I think the 3/17 threat/threat period is real....there is actual cold air within 1000 miles this time....I assume SNE will get 24-36"

The bad news is the Euro does not start running now until 1:45 a.m :axe: . If this threat is still real in a few days there will be some awfully late nights.

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Euro isn't knock your socks off or anything. Overrunning is there but temps kinda iffy and precip stays south mostly. Not the heavy heavies we need this time of year.

Can't really hang your hat this far out anyway. Just like with the gfs. It's all close enough to watch.

Gets very interesting later in the run. Wave of lp forms on the boundary and pops a coastal around hr198ish. Plenty cold then. Looks like a redeveloper but I can't tell for sure. No primary is driving n with that setup though.

Very cold for late march last couple days of the run. If it vrrifies there will be a lot of whiny spring lovers. Cherry blossoms would definitely be affected at least a little.

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I took a second look at the coastal. Pretty nice setup with a quick thump and plenty of cold. Looks like snow would be falling in below freezing air through the cities. In the 20's n-w.

Pretty much a done deal at this point if the extra hour of sunlight doesn't ruin it for us.

;)

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The Saint Patrick's Day snowstorm is the real deal. It will make us forget last week's bust and this entire miserable winter. What is good about the euros depiction, is that it pops the coastal south of us. With plenty of cold air the possibility is there for the mid-atlantic to finally cash in. Of course, New England will also benefit.

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Pretty much a done deal at this point if the extra hour of sunlight doesn't ruin it for us.

;)

Strong thermal boundary will make the cloud deck so thick that it will be darker during the day than at night.

One thing I noticed about the overturning stuff with the gfs and euro is the heaviest is south of the cold and it looks like it moved mostly w-e. Flow is kinda flat. That won't get the job done. Only have 12 euro and 24 gfs runs to figure that part out. The coastal is locked though.

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We are getting help. It called the great white help and its coming in a week. Where ya been? You might want to go to the store and pick up some tp tomorrow. Gonna be a shortage soon.

I've been enjoying the spring like temps :)

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The Saint Patrick's Day snowstorm is the real deal. It will make us forget last week's bust and this entire miserable winter. What is good about the euros depiction, is that it pops the coastal south of us. With plenty of cold air the possibility is there for the mid-atlantic to finally cash in. Of course, New England will also benefit.

Yep...green snow up and down the coast!

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Strong thermal boundary will make the cloud deck so thick that it will be darker during the day than at night.

One thing I noticed about the overturning stuff with the gfs and euro is the heaviest is south of the cold and it looks like it moved mostly w-e. Flow is kinda flat. That won't get the job done. Only have 12 euro and 24 gfs runs to figure that part out. The coastal is locked though.

 

Dude, it's coming.   We might as well start celebrating now.    People laugh at us now, but come Sunday, when winter storm watches are flying, they'll realize he who laughs last.....

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Dude, it's coming. We might as well start celebrating now. People laugh at us now, but come Sunday, when winter storm watches are flying, they'll realize he who laughs last.....

I'll be laughing either way. Either from pure blissful joy or hysterical cackling from my psychotic break. Win win

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There is some significance to dst irt to time of year. Let's be honest, it almost never snows after it. Well, at least until this year.

Well, we've only had DST on the second Sunday of March for 6 years (this being the 7th), as before 2007 it began on the first Sunday in April (which would make it harder for us to get snow after DST begins, ha ;) ).

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Well, we've only had DST on the second Sunday of March for 6 years (this being the 7th), as before 2007 it began on the first Sunday in April (which would make it harder for us to get snow after DST begins, ha ;) ).

Not sure it matters either way. It could have been Feb 7th last couple. Lol

You won the Feb snow contest. Pm me your email and whether u want iTunes or android gift card.

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I wonder what kind of effects the MJO will have on these threats for us? It looks like from CPC that the MJO just backtracked from phase 7 to phase 6. I know the EURO had multiple threats and affecting us earlier when it was halfway through 7 and forecasted to go into 8 sooner and never into phase 6. EURO still shows it entering 8 but not until later; but luckily has UKMET on it's side and to some extent the GFS. I'm not too familiar with the phases and their effects in the latter half of March so just pondering here. I sure hope we can manage something to actually give us at least a few inches! Plus I feel like if we can break the DC snow hole this month, it would somehow bode well for next winter kind of like how March 2009 did...no real hard evidence for this though. 

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Euro isn't knock your socks off or anything. Overrunning is there but temps kinda iffy and precip stays south mostly. Not the heavy heavies we need this time of year.

Can't really hang your hat this far out anyway. Just like with the gfs. It's all close enough to watch.

Gets very interesting later in the run. Wave of lp forms on the boundary and pops a coastal around hr198ish. Plenty cold then. Looks like a redeveloper but I can't tell for sure. No primary is driving n with that setup though.

Very cold for late march last couple days of the run. If it vrrifies there will be a lot of whiny spring lovers. Cherry blossoms would definitely be affected at least a little.

we don't really need heavy snow if we have an actual air mass....sure...it probably won't stick to the street, but it will lay......F-uck dynamics....I want a cold air mass....28-32 when it snows....

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Well, we've only had DST on the second Sunday of March for 6 years (this being the 7th), as before 2007 it began on the first Sunday in April (which would make it harder for us to get snow after DST begins, ha ;) ).

Actually, before 1987, dst didn't start until the last weekend in April.

Probably explains our warmer springs, you know, extra sunlight and all.

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Dude, it's coming. We might as well start celebrating now. People laugh at us now, but come Sunday, when winter storm watches are flying, they'll realize he who laughs last.....

I'm in shock that you haven't started a thread for it. I mean, c'mon, we all know it's coming.

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I'm in shock that you haven't started a thread for it. I mean, c'mon, we all know it's coming.

 

 

I'm in shock that you haven't started a thread for it. I mean, c'mon, we all know it's coming.

 

it's an amazing pattern...and it helps that we actually have a source region for cold air....probably won matter for me beyond a cartopper...but could be good for you

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it's an amazing pattern...and it helps that we actually have a source region for cold air....probably won matter for me beyond a cartopper...but could be good for you

I think you know I say a bunch of stuff in jest. I would love to see a late snow. If its going to be cold, might as well. I agree about the temps. If we'd had temps 5 degrees colder Wed we'd have been looking at an historic event.

Edit: I still hold to the notion that spring snows are tough to enjoy. I guess if you're looking for a few morning hours of winter goodness, then they can deliver that.

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The other variable arguing in favor of snow chances is the fact that models are now runnng one hour later. They are closer to the actual events, thus having more recent data ingestion and more accurate processing output. Model runs suggesting snow over the next few weeks should hence be taken more seriously. Every hour closer is critical.

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The other variable arguing in favor of snow chances is the fact that models are now runnng one hour later. They are closer to the actual events, thus having more recent data ingestion and more accurate processing output. Model runs suggesting snow over the next few weeks should hence be taken more seriously. Every hour closer is critical.

 

the good news is there is no longer any logical reason to stay up for the 0z euro

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