stormtracker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I'll keep an eye on this threat but won't get too invested until it's maybe 48 hrs out. The sfc track on the euro does look gorgeous though. Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Euro is rain for Boston---when was the last time that happened? Toss it, lol. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Its happened before it will happen again. Last year this time it would have been impossible and unreasonable to conclude we could pull this off. At least the players are on the field and it's the euro sniffing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Disappointing to see the 1st event turn so warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Look, we'll continue to hear from the boo birds about how it's late march and the sun angle produces a sfc temp of 790 degrees. And while sun angle is absolutely a factor, anybody who isn't climo challenged knows it can snow here in mid late march with the right set up. Is it likely, probably not. Pattern is ripe, so lets do it. Not you too. It is not going to snow within 100 miles of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Not you too. It is not going to snow within 100 miles of the cities. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Why not? geography brain burp. i'd definitely take the under if anything close to what's shown happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Much better GFS run, keeps the PV in place with energy coming from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 geography brain burp. i'd definitely take the under if anything close to what's shown happens. Nah, this next storm is going to make a lot more of its own cold air. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 geography brain burp. i'd definitely take the under if anything close to what's shown happens. I am assuming the models are wrong yet again. I am still digging out from the last modeled blizzard so perhaps Fozz is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I am assuming the models are wrong yet again. I am still digging out from the last modeled blizzard so perhaps Fozz is on to something. Hard to see it not favoring elevation but there is some like 35-50 miles from here. Air mass could be a colder look but also 10+ later so might cancel out. Who knows. Euro hit 95 a few times from far out with last. My personal thought is better if we don't get strung along for another week long session but if its going to be cold might as well snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Spent all day outside and had dinner by the backyard fire put. It's crazy that were gonna get buried next weekend. Bring it. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 NAM at 81 is within range of the beginning of Thursday's 0z GFS run whose 144h panel will probably or not show precipitating of some various type from a sliding coastal cutter. Too soon to worry about column layer boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 NAM at 81 is within range of the beginning of Thursday's 0z GFS run whose 144h panel will probably or not show precipitating of some various type from a sliding coastal cutter. Too soon to worry about column layer boundaries. hmmm, I wonder why I never thought of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Only thing I'm worried about is if the Euro has enough colors to display 36"-48" it's going to show over all of us. It may knock us down because it has to reuse the 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Massive storm on the Euro...968 mb at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know. Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I will take WTH is the EURO smoking from Day 7 to Day 9 please Alex Per Earthlight at 204 from the NYC forum -- Euro has a 982mb low sitting off the coast of New Jersey at 204 hours just slamming the area with snow...that's all you need to know. Anybody have 192-204? Just for sh**s and giggles? Low sitting over the Southern Mid Atlantic dropping 6 mb from 192-198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Another classic battle I guess. GFS shows temps near 50 during that time period. As much as I'd love for the Euro to be correct and salvage this winter, we have to admit climatology is definitely on the side of the GFS. It doesn't look like there will be a cold air mass coming in before this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us You can pretty much take that to the bank. But on an up note, we get to share in the well below cold through the period, so we go that going for us...just a brutal turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us It may trend north, but as depicted by this Euro run, it's 12-18 inches of snow from southwest Va through DC/BWI and up to Boston. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Really Euro?? Hundreds of pools in the area are being de-winterized in my profession starting this week. Last nights solution could cause serious problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looking at the 24 hr increment maps, it's too far north for us Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Even at 240 hours there is a low out in the southwest with the day 10 storm drawing cold air, there is going to be many opportunities it looks like for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Really Euro?? Hundreds of pools in the area are being de-winterized in my profession starting this week. Last nights solution could cause serious problems. It would be a national tragedy if some rich yuppies who couldn't wait till April to prep their pools had to spend some money on repairs. Lead story on nightline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It would be a national tragedy if some rich yuppies who couldn't wait till April to prep their pools had to spend some money on repairs. Lead story on nightline.Lol. What do you think, PSU? Is it too much to ask for a storm not to trend north this winter?MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Not saying its right but euro has a front running wave with about .6 qpf with 95 right on the rain snow line. Then the upper low catches up and the system bombs and the coastal develops right over us. Round 2 is all snow. Qpf increases dramatically from sw to ne. About .4 qpf for iAd from round 2. About .9 bwi and 1.2 phin. what about surface temps? and if anyone says don't worry about surface temps you need your head examined after last week's debocle it is impossible for me to believe that nothing more than a 30 degree surface prog will work as we need wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Euro ensembles say the Op is not out to lunch on our St Patty's day cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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