Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 it's an amazing pattern...and it helps that we actually have a source region for cold air....probably won matter for me beyond a cartopper...but could be good for you It really is a good one. Big nasty block and strong hp pumping the cold down from WAY up north. I've been joking around a ton since the bust but I said it a couple days ago with the hat off and I'll say it again. There is a lot going for getting snow out of this but it's going to take some magic. Expectations for me are set at a maybe at best. At least it's not some timing thing with a progressive air mass that is out so sea before something rides in. It's more like a cold air pump after the rainer. It get's reinforced by the waves moving through the upper level flow. It's not often you see the -10c 850 line really close in March. Yea, during the day the sun will warm up the ground but it's cold just over our heads. Much colder prog than Saddern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 the good news is there is no longer any logical reason to stay up for the 0z euro Yea, euro finishes closer to the time I wake up than go to bed. Nothing really matters at this range anyways. Just get the block and cold air coming in first. Without that who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 It snows year round for the people out "north and west" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 how dare you question mid-march snow. pattern is like woah. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS has all the ingredients EXCEPT a +PNA, which IMO is one of the most important in the spring...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Huh? You got a snowstorm. Nobody really gives a crap about your ignorance of climo. I'm well aware of my climo and what can happen in mid-March in the colder burbs, I know what happened in March 1958, March 1942, March 1960, even March 2007 and 1999 to a lesser extent, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS is a disaster. Congrats, Ian. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 The other variable arguing in favor of snow chances is the fact that models are now runnng one hour later. They are closer to the actual events, thus having more recent data ingestion and more accurate processing output. Model runs suggesting snow over the next few weeks should hence be taken more seriously. Every hour closer is critical. Yep. This time change is game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 the good news is there is no longer any logical reason to stay up for the 0z euro Was there ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS is a disaster. Congrats, Ian. MDstorm Time change is screwing with it. It'll correct by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 euro says over running rain but then brings in a pretty big storm 996 east of clt at hr 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 hr 216 988 south of rdu mtns nc western va getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 984 near wilmington big snows west central nc /va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 984 near hatteras big i95 / i81 snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Thanks for the play by play. Sounds like a couple different opportunities. I would pass on the overrunning if we could lock in on the BIG storm behind it. Temps probably will be an issue in my area. Everything will have to be about perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 snow maps are just sick low stalls east of va beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 GFS is a disaster. Congrats, Ian. MDstorm Goofus is a disaster of a model...so consistent!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 snow maps are just sick low stalls east of va beach The models just want to see us be tortured. This is absolutely ridiculous. If I get pulled in again and we get kicked again...somebody just end me lol. I am not all in or even 1 chip in on this one. I won't be until 2 hours before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Sounds like best potential run of the year for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 12z euro says I told you 12-20" was a lock! I think it's working. Who says it can't snow in DC in March? How about Atlanta!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Goofus is a disaster of a model...so consistent!! Its not as awful as some make it out to be. But at this time range, and basically 5+ days out, I will always go with the Euro. Most of the time it sniffs out these threats early, and often has the general idea correct. GFS typically flips and flops its way to figuring it out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 qpf 1.5" statewide 2" central southern va into nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 This could be a good one in the mountains. To the cabin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Once we blend in climo we can follow this with some sanity. I'm not IMBY about these events. I chased April 24th last year and it was a cool event. I think we know we can't ignore BL problems. Why not take some interest in this period? I will check later, but I think you did pretty well on a number of late season events. There was an observer in glenmont who kept pretty good records. You make a good point. I've always been surprised at how well I do in storms where 95 is the dividing line - though it just seems like any way that we can get screwed this year it's happening. I will probably peak once a day or so at this thread to see if it's still on the models...but not lost sleep for me. We shall see! I just hope it's not a situation where we think it has awesome potential up until 12 hours before. Hopefully it's either a LEGIT threat once we get close in or not even a possibility - I don't want any of this yes, yes, yes, yes...HELL NO kind of deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 If the Euro has its way, I could be looking at my single largest event of the season! ~2 inches on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I'll keep an eye on this threat but won't get too invested until it's maybe 48 hrs out. The sfc track on the euro does look gorgeous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Its not as awful as some make it out to be. But at this time range, and basically 5+ days out, I will always go with the Euro. Most of the time it sniffs out these threats early, and often has the general idea correct. GFS typically flips and flops its way to figuring it out over time. Yes I've noticed that also. Let's hope it gets back to the snow threat again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 If it's on the Euro DT will be hyping it beyond belief and banning anyone that questions his love of the Euro and modelology. The models just want to see us be tortured. This is absolutely ridiculous. If I get pulled in again and we get kicked again...somebody just end me lol. I am not all in or even 1 chip in on this one. I won't be until 2 hours before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 You make a good point. I've always been surprised at how well I do in storms where 95 is the dividing line - though it just seems like any way that we can get screwed this year it's happening. I will probably peak once a day or so at this thread to see if it's still on the models...but not lost sleep for me. We shall see! I just hope it's not a situation where we think it has awesome potential up until 12 hours before. Hopefully it's either a LEGIT threat once we get close in or not even a possibility - I don't want any of this yes, yes, yes, yes...HELL NO kind of deals. Sounds like you're in to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 So the low moves from NW GA to the VA capes over a 48 hr period. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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