Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6z gfs.....woah....nice phase but were on the edge. Not that it matters. Just another run with the big ec storm idea. Also shows the cutoff and stall idea. Just a bit too far east. I thought it was possible yesterday morning when I brought it up but never would have thought we'd be seeing stall and crawl solutions so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice that we finally have blocking to force storms to slide underneath it and to our south...and we actually have an interesting storm on the models to watch. Sucks a little that despite the block, there is no real cold air to work with. Eventually the warm boundary layer will have to become the concern. Track and intensity are going to be so critical as it will take dynamic cooling to get the job done. Be fun to watch as this is likely the last gasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Even the late phase and drag north on the 6z would end our 2" snow drought. Nice to see the GFS come over to the Euro/new GGEM camp a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 After all of the disappointment to this winter, I'm still highly skeptical of there being any sort of MECS or any snow at all for that matter. Lets five it until the middle of next week before we start hyping and being excited. Needless to say though, I do think this is one of the better chances in a while and it does fit the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I went to bed feeling defeated and woke up with surprise. I will sank with the ship, I'm all in. I am weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 still don't see the excitement with the Euro it's a storm but not the bomb to the extent we need to solve the bl problems, at least not along I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 still don't see the excitement with the Euro it's a storm but not the bomb we need to solve the bl problems, at least not along I95 why would anyone get excited about a 2 day event with 1.50"+ of QPF and a stall?..There are BL and mixing issues along the coastal plain in a march coastal even with a bomb.....March62, March58, March84, March93, March 99 #2, so what...i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 why would anyone get excited about a 2 day event with 1.50"+ of QPF and a stall?..There are BL and mixing issues along the coastal plain in a march coastal even with a bomb.....March62, March58, March84, March93, March 99 #2, so what...i exactly SO T.F. WHAT! those storms mean nothing this year when everything failed bl temps are horrid; even Wunderground snow maps show nothing within 30+ miles of I95 and even out west there is no more than a few inches of accumulations outside higher elevations as now depicted, it's a cold rain with snow mixed in at times I see this as nothing more than the final "thumb in the eye" for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 those storms mean nothing this year when everything failed This logic is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 exactly SO T.F. WHAT! those storms mean nothing this year when everything failed bl temps are horrid; even Wunderground snow maps show nothing within 30+ miles of I95 and even out west there is no more than a few inches of accumulations outside higher elevations as now depicted, it's a cold rain with snow mixed in at times I see this as nothing more than the final "thumb in the eye" for this winter you may be right.....this idea that we can "work things out later" is always funny i dont take euro thermals too seriously though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This logic is flawed. no more or less than analoging this with storms from years ago in a completely different regimes this can work, but we need an absolute bomb right over us or it fails along I95 Euro does not do that with surface temps in the mid-upper 30's, just like most of the fails this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 no more or less than analoging this with storms from years ago in a completely different regimes this can work, but we need an absolute bomb right over us or it fails along I95 Euro does not do that with surface temps in the mid-upper 30's, just like most of the fails this year Mitch you know the Euro is usually a little warm, but to get a great event we need it to bomb at exactly the right location. I know it has been a very frustrating winter but this is probably our best shot this winter, so let's become winterwxluvr for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 no more or less than analoging this with storms from years ago in a completely different regimes this can work, but we need an absolute bomb right over us or it fails along I95 Euro does not do that with surface temps in the mid-upper 30's, just like most of the fails this year For something still a long ways away you seem certain that everything in this run will come to pass. It might be rain, it might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Or Bob just said it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Or Bob just said it better there are sharp cutoffs in march....it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I guess I just don't understand the timing of the hand-wringing, mitch. Verbatim, this run is obviously not ideal. But it's a very nice step in the right direction toward the kind of thread-the-needle solution we would need (or at least a solid "holds serve"), and it's a legit last chance in a year that has been short on legit chances. We all know the odds are stacked against us, and we all know that the chances are this won't work out the way we want/need it to...but if you can't get excited about even the faint potential for an end-of-season stalling wet snow bomb, then why even both reading the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think it's a little silly to worry about exact surface temps this far out...... Just glad we have a storm and the setup for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Only thing locked in now is five more days of model solution volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK, i'll just blindly go along with everyone else and be intimidated by all your comments you people must be in la-la land every storm this year modeled to have warm bl temps have had warm bl temps if you expect temps to magically cool as we get closer with all other things remaining the same, you're nuts per accuwx maps, BWI gets around .28-.34" qpf over the 6 hour periods...average that out over 6 hours and you're at .05-.06" that will NOT do it for us I am absolutely right when I say w/o a bomb to cool the atmosphere, it's a cold rain or ra/sn mix now be sure to take your cheap shots and feel big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6z GFS depiction is pretty funny, but I think I'd take the Euro ensemble mean and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Geez. This is nice. We need some cold to go along with this and it is just not there. RN/SN for most of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Now that meteorological winter is over maybe we can end the D.C. snow hole curse in the first week of meteorological spring. That stalled retrograding Low just off the coast looks interesting on the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We're in this to win guys! Man up!I'm all in. Full tilt baby. Ggem navgem ecmwf all there. Goofus is coming around. Lets bring this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 OK, i'll just blindly go along with everyone else and be intimidated by all your comments you people must be in la-la land every storm this year modeled to have warm bl temps have had warm bl temps if you expect temps to magically cool as we get closer with all other things remaining the same, you're nuts per accuwx maps, BWI gets around .28-.34" qpf over the 6 hour periods...average that out over 6 hours and you're at .05-.06" that will NOT do it for us I am absolutely right when I say w/o a bomb to cool the atmosphere, it's a cold rain or ra/sn mix now be sure to take your cheap shots and feel big We have decent high pressure. Euro thermals are warm biased, but you are right. It will come down to rates. We are not going to have an airmass that supports -SN. Id rather just have a storm and hope at least some of it is snow than no storm at all. Models are just models. Nobody cares about potential. I care a lot less about the chase or some model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm all in. Full tilt baby. Ggem navgem ecmwf all there. Goofus is coming around. Lets bring this one in. Of course you are. You're elevated and in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm all in. Full tilt baby. Ggem navgem ecmwf all there. Goofus is coming around. Lets bring this one in. It's like 5 days out. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's like 5 days out. Get a grip. Exactly, plenty of time for get the bomb/stall right off of oc with a ccb from hell parked over your and my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 exactly SO T.F. WHAT! those storms mean nothing this year when everything failed bl temps are horrid; even Wunderground snow maps show nothing within 30+ miles of I95 and even out west there is no more than a few inches of accumulations outside higher elevations as now depicted, it's a cold rain with snow mixed in at time I see this as nothing more than the final "thumb in the eye" for this winter To borrow a BC phrase, Thanks Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 This thread may have some mojo................??? Let's hope. It's nice to wake up to good things. I felt last nights GFS was a pretty big continuity shift. Someone posted something about recon flights. Were those yesterday? Might explain the sudden changes to the solutions on the GFS. If not, anybody know when those are. It's pretty logical.......the more accurate the input data, the more accurate the model outcome is likely to be. I'll feel better about this when the GFS is more on board. It's not there yet and neither are its ens members. As Bob said, still too far east. But, it is a better trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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