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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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The airmass during that period is still crap, why would we expect any different result?  Truth is there is not real cold air available right now, we got the perfect pattern but the cold from Janaury and Feb was lost and is on the other side of the globe and we have maritime air flooded across the country.  Blocking or not, we need a cold air source at this point in the year, and I can't believe I didnt think of that before this total debacle.  After the southern slider the euro says we get some true polar air to inject down, but I am way too down to really analyze it right now. 

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The airmass during that period is still crap, why would we expect any different result?  Truth is there is not real cold air available right now, we got the perfect pattern but the cold from Janaury and Feb was lost and is on the other side of the globe and we have maritime air flooded across the country.  Blocking or not, we need a cold air source at this point in the year, and I can't believe I didnt think of that before this total debacle.  After the southern slider the euro says we get some true polar air to inject down, but I am way too down to really analyze it right now. 

worst part of this winter was when we had a week or so of temps under 32 and nothing to show for it. Thats worse than yesterdays bust

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How is it looking for December 5th?

In all seriousness, I could have sworn in the anomalous 2002 - 2003 winter we had April snow.. anyone have anything on it? I remember the results were a lot like yesterday where it snowed it was a slushy mess...

I had a half inch on 4/7/03...I also had 3 inches on 3/30/03.

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The airmass during that period is still crap, why would we expect any different result?  Truth is there is not real cold air available right now, we got the perfect pattern but the cold from Janaury and Feb was lost and is on the other side of the globe and we have maritime air flooded across the country.  Blocking or not, we need a cold air source at this point in the year, and I can't believe I didnt think of that before this total debacle.  After the southern slider the euro says we get some true polar air to inject down, but I am way too down to really analyze it right now. 

 

We'll be like ric yesterday. Thundersnow and 2-3" per hour. Or maybe the ccb sets up at night.  This is going to be awesome. 

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I still can't believe this storm busted so badly for you guys... Chasing winter storms is like being in an abusive relationship... and you just walked in on your Victoria Secret girlfriend sleeping with someone else.. But hey its ok... cause she said  I'm sorry and in 7-10 days one of her friends from work is coming over to visit and you can have a threes.. er triple phaser so you go all in again..   :lmao: 

 

It's like that for all snow weenies no matter what region.

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All multi year ninas and neutrals following multi year ninas are followed by ninos. The #'s don't lie. I'm going with 86-87, 02-03, and 09-10 as analogs for next winter.

Lates CFSv2 data suggests a weak niño forming in the summer becoming borderline moderate FWIW

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6z gfs shows a hecs on the 22nd. Nice bowling ball passing underneath. Blocking isn't crazy so it will blow up over us thus time. Bl sucks but it should manufacture its own cold and dynamics will take care of the rest. All in.

Let's see what the Euro says...I'm all in if it comes aboard for the d 14 HECS.

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Let's see what the Euro says...I'm all in if it comes aboard for the d 14 HECS.

We're a very resilient bunch. well, we have to be or else we would implode and vaporize.

I believe there is a chance at snow this month. So if you go with chance/no chance with no hedge it's 50/50. All in.

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Lates CFSv2 data suggests a weak niño forming in the summer becoming borderline moderate FWIW

I wish I had 200 years of data to go with but since that doesn't exist you can only hedge with what you have. There have been no instances of nina-neutral-nina in over 60 years.

So, the 2 most likely outcomes would be another neutral or a nino. I could deal with either. Another neutral (especially warm neutral) is far from a kiss of death because we'll be pretty far removed from the multi-year nina effect.

Is it too early to start a winter 13/14 long range thread? CFS hourly panels with have december in range soon. Nothing like a 249 day prog of a 6 hour height/precip panel.

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