MDstorm Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Lates CFSv2 data suggests a weak niño forming in the summer becoming borderline moderate FWIW It would be worth a hell of a lot if it came to pass. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Let's see what the Euro says...I'm all in if it comes aboard for the d 14 HECS. We're a very resilient bunch. well, we have to be or else we would implode and vaporize. I believe there is a chance at snow this month. So if you go with chance/no chance with no hedge it's 50/50. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Lates CFSv2 data suggests a weak niño forming in the summer becoming borderline moderate FWIWI wish I had 200 years of data to go with but since that doesn't exist you can only hedge with what you have. There have been no instances of nina-neutral-nina in over 60 years. So, the 2 most likely outcomes would be another neutral or a nino. I could deal with either. Another neutral (especially warm neutral) is far from a kiss of death because we'll be pretty far removed from the multi-year nina effect. Is it too early to start a winter 13/14 long range thread? CFS hourly panels with have december in range soon. Nothing like a 249 day prog of a 6 hour height/precip panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 So, the 2 most likely outcomes would be another neutral or a nino. I could deal with either. Another neutral (especially warm neutral) is far from a kiss of death because we'll be pretty far removed from the multi-year nina effect. Even as bad as this year was, it was obviously not a 11-12 style Nina. Yes the northern stream dominated and the southern stream was weak, but at least there WAS a southern stream this winter at times. Staying cold neutral would probably be rough again, but warm neutral would probably be ok. Hopefully we can get up near mod Nino and find some cold air next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Even as bad as this year was, it was obviously not a 11-12 style Nina. Yes the northern stream dominated and the southern stream was weak, but at least there WAS a southern stream this winter at times. Staying cold neutral would probably be rough again, but warm neutral would probably be ok. Hopefully we can get up near mod Nino and find some cold air next winter. I think one thing we can feel good about is that the long-term AO/NAO regime should at least deliver some blocking that would set us up for a reasonable shot at something. Get a southern stream involved before the end of February and we're looking at better-than-recent chances at seeing a moderate snowfall. I know this is pretty obvious to most, but our problem now is that the blocking currently in play has come too late to deliver for us unless we got an anomalous cold shot or impressive dynamics to cool the BL. This setup came just a couple weeks too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 This wont cut it. We need heavier precip and colder temps? thoughts Randy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 All multi year ninas and neutrals following multi year ninas are followed by ninos. The #'s don't lie. I'm going with 86-87, 02-03, and 09-10 as analogs for next winter. March 09 featured the only decent snow storm of that winter. 09-10 repeat appears a lock. Pretty sure JBI, JBII, and Henry M all concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 This wont cut it. We need heavier precip and colder temps? thoughts Randy? It needs a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 This wont cut it. We need heavier precip and colder temps? thoughts Randy? We always do well with marginal temps. If its still there at 0z, I'll start a thread. The great white hope II: The Empire Strikes Back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 It needs a name. White Lyin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 In all seriousness... Amazing how the warmth it had in the long range died again to the hands of the European The colder than average temperatures have been amazingly consistent since January 21. We've had a couple days here and there where temperatures spike, but it's been generally colder than normal for a while. That pattern doesn't show any signs of change to a torch, but it's also not looking super cold either. I just hope we start to warm up a bit, and have a period of temperatures in the 60s and 70s. I'd rather not go from 50s straight to 80s and 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 We always do well with marginal temps. If its still there at 0z, I'll start a thread. The great white hope II: The Empire Strikes Back 12z gfs lost it. Haven't seen the euro yet but we should still be good. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 We always do well with marginal temps. If its still there at 0z, I'll start a thread. The great white hope II: The Empire Strikes BackThe set-up is not overly a stretch if you're ever going to get a storm at that timeframe. You almost want the coastal to head a bit farther east and have it undergo enough cyclogenesis to expand the precip shield more to the west. However, getting skimmed is not something you typically want this time of year as rates are usually needed to cool the column despite a cool ML. Know about my tag yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 euro has something day 7 based on the charts...havent seen the maps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 We will probably be cold, dry and windy for the month. Perfect end to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 looks like a potent clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 looks like a potent clipper? yep. 2 days in a row. gfs takes it north and lets it deepen enough to paste sne. We get some sprinkles/flurries on the tail. This time the euro is right though. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 looks like a potent clipper? looks like cool drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 looks like cool drizzle how much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 yep. 2 days in a row. gfs takes it north and lets it deepen enough to paste sne. We get some sprinkles/flurries on the tail. This time the euro is right though. Game on. we are due for april event. We had a WSW in april of 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 how much qpf? about .1" to .15" prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 about .1" to .15" prob. It will trend wetter as we get closer, oh and warmer. Nothing like warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 last night euro had 3 distinct areas of ns vorticity post frontal passage next week. I doubt there is much accuracy given the lead and we need to get near or past the cold frontal passage. Best case scenario (something we don't do here) would be to have the first vort help carve the trough deeper and get lower height in here in advance of any trailing vorticity. Since there are no signs of anything in the ss, the only thing that could give us anything would be to have a modest or strong vort dig deep enough to pop a surface somewhere in central va on southward. I'm not sure I see any other potential here but I haven't look at 12z h5 panels so it may all be off the table already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 EURO shows a pretty robust block. It's pretty cold in the LR with a few minor event possibilities. Of course the surface cold air will be the issue, I think one of the s/w's could slow down and dig a bit farther due to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Late season winter storm, here we come! It's going to happen. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 are you guys looking at next winter's maps because this one is ova'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Late season winter storm, here we come! It's going to happen. Mark my words. we always get something weird in bad winters. Last year we got the october snowstorm...maybe this year...a mid to late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Its March, as long as its not storming, without an arctic air injection into the pattern even with blocking we will have hights easily into the 50's most days if it is sunny. So what if it's not 70 degrees, if its 56 and sunny that feels nice and is good enough to get out and do things. Lets not be wimps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 La La Land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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