Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 it will snow again in DC. We just had 100 inches 3 years ago in the middle of Global Warming and you will be all in like usual. Ive tried your approach and it never works. If the March 18-21 works out with colder BL temps...you will be in the thread just like Ernie Grunfeld likes white europeans who cant play basketball you see, it's quotes like this that bring me back over and over and also make me laugh after a total back yard fail of cataclysmic proportions. I'll be in the thread but I guaranty I won't spend more than 25% of the time looking at stuff like I did with this last one. Probably even less than that. When virtually every single model known to man shows the same wrong thing 15 seconds before the storm hits make me lose just a little bit...or should I say ALL confidence until proven otherwise down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Even you have to realize we're done. Of course we'd all be here if the models show it...but a great many of us will be much more skeptical than normal. Can it snow in DC mid to late March? Sure. Do you remember the last time it did with any significance? Yeah, neither do I. March 13-14 1993:)? If temps are cold in march it can snow. The march 9 storm was 28 degrees in DC. We j ust need an extreme airmass. Not one that has Quebec at 37. It happened to Nasvhille in 1892! The winter of 1891-92 was almost one with no snowfall. Through March 14, a mere 0.3 inches of snowfall had been measured in Nashville, and it appeared that winter was over.1,2 There had been several days early in March with temperatures in the 60's, and the thermometer had climbed to 70 degrees on the 4th.2 Sometime on March 13, a strong cold front swept through the region, dunking Nashville's high temperature from 65 degrees on the 13th to 40 degrees the next day.2 Then, on the 15th, Nashville received a 4.2-inch snowfall -- the largest by far of the season thus far.2 Much of this snow likely melted the next day, as the temperature rose to 39 degrees, and it appeared that a warming trend was underway.2 But this was not to be the case. On St. Patrick's Day, March 17, Nashville received the largest snowfall in its history -- 17 inches -- a record which still stands today. The snow began around 6:00 p.m. the previous evening.3 Very little accumulated until after midnight.2 The snow continued into the afternoon.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 March 13-14 1993:)? If temps are cold in march it can snow. The march 9 storm was 28 degrees in DC. We j ust need an extreme airmass. Not one that has Quebec at 37. It happened to Nasvhille in 1892! The winter of 1891-92 was almost one with no snowfall. Through March 14, a mere 0.3 inches of snowfall had been measured in Nashville, and it appeared that winter was over.1,2 There had been several days early in March with temperatures in the 60's, and the thermometer had climbed to 70 degrees on the 4th.2 Sometime on March 13, a strong cold front swept through the region, dunking Nashville's high temperature from 65 degrees on the 13th to 40 degrees the next day.2 Then, on the 15th, Nashville received a 4.2-inch snowfall -- the largest by far of the season thus far.2 Much of this snow likely melted the next day, as the temperature rose to 39 degrees, and it appeared that a warming trend was underway.2 But this was not to be the case. On St. Patrick's Day, March 17, Nashville received the largest snowfall in its history -- 17 inches -- a record which still stands today. The snow began around 6:00 p.m. the previous evening.3 Very little accumulated until after midnight.2 The snow continued into the afternoon.3 Find an anomalous artic air mass and then talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 still no major torch signals sadly. euro ens trends toward 'milder' as you head toward 360 maybe but looks like any mild days are just a sprinkling thru then and mild is like a little above avg. good news is our avg is much too warm for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 still no major torch signals sadly. euro ens trends toward 'milder' as you head toward 360 maybe but looks like any mild days are just a sprinkling thru then and mild is like a little above avg. good news is our avg is much too warm for a snowstorm. Get that 20c line towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How is it looking for December 5th? In all seriousness, I could have sworn in the anomalous 2002 - 2003 winter we had April snow.. anyone have anything on it? I remember the results were a lot like yesterday where it snowed it was a slushy mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 why you ask? why not; I hate summer heat and the potential for damage and flooding in our area from hurricanes/tropical systems isn't what I consider fun anyway, this winter has got to be better than last year and has a few things lining up in our favor, or so it seems at this early stage Won't take much to be better right? We'll be ALL over that this fall/winter...."yea, even though the pattern sucks it's still better than last year.......3" of slop followed by rain seems like a blizzard compared to last year....the 240 hour gfs is showing a storm that would be 10x my seasonal total last year". Jokes aside, early indications are pointing a winter that won't suck as bad as last year..,...unless we end up with a neutral ENSO winter.......that would be almost the kiss of death..... this is looking pretty good...was talking to Will about it as well.....I am not that jazzed about having a great winter...fortunately there is not much skill at this point...weak nino after extended nina...strong -PDO regime......2006-07 is probably our best analog right now...68-69 and 51-52 aren't bad...2 opposite examples of blocking versus not much blocking.......If I had to forecast right now I'd probably go for a +1 to +2 winter with 10" at DCA...hope I am wrong...of course that would be better than last winter...goes without saying...we should get a period of blocking...likely later in the season...hopefully we can match that up with good source regions for cold and a half decent storm track.....even in October/November I think my skill is only somewhat above flipping a coin....but it is above....but there is a lot of room for me to bust badly.... I don't think zwts is being pessimistic at all. He's accurately reporting a likely outcome based on the early signals. There's plenty up in the air this winter and I don't think anybody is calling for a bustola. We'll get some cold and snow. 100% sure it will be better than last year... I think saying a "100%"*** chance of it being better than last winter is a pretty good bet. As I've said before, it would be hard to undercut how awful it was both in terms of warmth and lack of snow. We had so much going against anything last year, almost literally nothing to even consider following. And I thought it would be tough to outdo 2001-02!! 2010-11 was a let down of course after the blockbuster winter the year before, but it wasn't terrible. We had chances, there was cold (including a cold December), and storms to follow. In fact, I'd argue if we had shared in on the Boxing Day storm in December, most here would have considered it a not half-bad winter...in combination with the convective snow burst in late January. Kind of like 2006-07. That year was back-loaded from late January through March, including the extremely cold February. If we had gotten the Valentine's Day storm, again, probably most people would consider it a successful winter and "up there" on the list of good ones. ***at least, I'd like to think at least pretty darned close to 100%! There's a 100's of similar posts from all of us during this past summer / fall. Smell what I'm steppin in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How is it looking for December 5th? In all seriousness, I could have sworn in the anomalous 2002 - 2003 winter we had April snow.. anyone have anything on it? I remember the results were a lot like yesterday where it snowed it was a slushy mess... we had a late march snow....i think March 28 or 29. heavy snow fell and it stuck but as soon as it lightened up....everything melted immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 There's a 100's of similar posts from all of us during this past summer / fall. Smell what I'm steppin in? It WAS better for everyone but those immediately within DC. Still sucked ballz of course. Ended up being neutral ENSO, and cold neutral at that. I think zwtys had a pretty good seasonal forecast with the warm start and cold end with best snow chance(s) at the end. The snow didn't work out, but his temp call was pretty good. DT and JB both busted horribly nailed the pattern just missed the details . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It WAS better for everyone but those immediately within DC. Still sucked ballz of course. Ended up being neutral ENSO, and cold neutral at that. I think zwtys had a pretty good seasonal forecast with the warm start and cold end with best snow chance(s) at the end. The snow didn't work out, but his temp call was pretty good. DT and JB both busted horribly nailed the pattern just missed the details . Better yes. Even close to expectations better? Nah. It sucked almost as bad for everyone except for far nw. But we quantify success based on the cities (as we should). Not one single widespread 2-4? Really? That fact in itself = 11/12 type fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Think almost everyone besides CWG went for a cold and snowy winter in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How is it looking for December 5th? In all seriousness, I could have sworn in the anomalous 2002 - 2003 winter we had April snow.. anyone have anything on it? I remember the results were a lot like yesterday where it snowed it was a slushy mess... Somehow BWI recorded over 2 inches. I don't know how because we barely got 2 in Reisterstown. I was up in Westminster that day and they got a solid 3-4. I think it was the 30th or 31st of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 There's a 100's of similar posts from all of us during this past summer / fall. Smell what I'm steppin in? Sooo....you're saying it's too early to speculate about next winter? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Sooo....you're saying it's too early to speculate about next winter? MDstorm I have a high prob forecast. It's going to be worse than the last 2 combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I have a high prob forecast. It's going to be worse than the last 2 combined. You are finally learning that those kind of forecasts are almost always right around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Did anyone look at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Did anyone look at the Euro? don't have the pay site...but next weekend looks pretty damn cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Did anyone look at the Euro? lol i think everyone is in a recovery period today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 There's a 100's of similar posts from all of us during this past summer / fall. Smell what I'm steppin in? In hindsight, that's kind of a funny compilation of similar posts, there, and I do remember some of them (including my own, argh!!). But I see what you're saying. Hope you washed your shoes after steppin' in it! ; ) This winter sucked, it was highly disappointing (especially with yesterday's storm), but it was better than last year. We got some pretty good cold from late January through much of February, some good blocking at times, and had some realistic things to follow. That's something we did not have last winter. Unfortunately, we only managed some clipper dustings in most areas. I thought overall we'd do a fair bit better than last year in terms of snow (maybe some areas did, but not region-wide as a whole). Nothing earth-shattering, but I admittedly thought a good moderate event or two, and certainly breaking the <2" drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 we could use a summer that isn't record breaking heat. i can't imagine that helped us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro shows a relative stoked n stream vort that passes right underneath us @ 198-210. Temps following area REALLY cold for March. Any takers? I'll see ya next thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro shows a relative stoked n stream vort that passes right underneath us @ 198-210. Temps following area REALLY cold for March. Any takers? I'll see ya next thurs. euro also has a coastal storm thats a southern slider that we should pay attention too at day 7 after the lakes cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro shows a relative stoked n stream vort that passes right underneath us @ 198-210. Temps following area REALLY cold for March. Any takers? I'll see ya next thurs. If it's progged to happen at night, I'll buy in, but I will never be convinced again that snow can/will accumulate in March daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 euro also has a coastal storm thats a southern slider that we should pay attention too at day 7 after the lakes cutter? 18z gfs showed it last night too. I'm recovered. Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 euro also has a coastal storm thats a southern slider that we should pay attention too at day 7 after the lakes cutter? Yesterday's debacle was originally portrayed as a southern slider by the euro. Congrats SNE MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 we could use a summer that isn't record breaking heat. i can't imagine that helped us this winter. I agree, but, when the summer heat is particular irritating, I just remind myself of the summer of 95. It was viciously hot for an extended period (I am pretty sure that the only day in my memory with a low temperature above 80 F at PHL happened that summer along with a bunch of days with highs of 100+ F) and, in mid-Fall, it was like somebody flipped the cold switch. Up this way, we got our first measurable snow in November and, from then on, every storm, whether conditions were marginal or not, delivered something including, of course, the early January storm. This continued until April 9, 1996 ( when 2.4" fell at PHL)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 18z gfs showed it last night too. I'm recovered. Let's do it. euro also has a coastal storm thats a southern slider that we should pay attention too at day 7 after the lakes cutter? Euro shows a relative stoked n stream vort that passes right underneath us @ 198-210. Temps following area REALLY cold for March. Any takers? I'll see ya next thurs. I don't even.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 DC had much better winters and March's in general before it was moved out of Maine into the Mid Atlantic. This map is from 1423 AD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM also shows southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I don't even.... fall off a horse man. You know the rest. giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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