Scraff Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Can anyone provide EURO QPF for MoCo and HoCo please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So we break our streak in DCA? looks like about 2-3"/3-4" in the city.. but sharp increase just west. sfc temps try to creep near 40 by 0z tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DCA Verbatim WED 12Z 06-MAR 2.3 -4.5 0.04 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.9 -4.1 0.26 THU 00Z 07-MAR 3.0 -2.4 0.43 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.6 -2.5 0.29 THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.4 -1.4 0.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't think it is bad at all. To be clear, I am not as certain that "north trend" is something that will happen with each run as some of you all on here. It is happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ask Will and Coastalwx what happened to them last week after the Euro bulls eyed them for days shift north last couple days at some point it has to stop, but at 72+ hours out, I'll be surprised if it has stopped with today's 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't think it is bad at all. To be clear, I am not as certain that "north trend" is something that will happen with each run as some of you all on here. There's 2 ways to look at that though. N trend with slp and n trend with precip shield. As is, this is a pretty money run with slp placement. How far N-W of the low the heaviest precip goes is super tricky when we're talking 30 miles or so at any range except very short leads. IF things go like the euro shows, there is going to be a fairly large and relatively intense shield. We're all very much in the game still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Rates. Rates will over come temps. I think we're about to easily break our lack of 2" streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .5"+ gets pretty much everyone except extreme NE MD which is a little less. I like riding the northern edge of heavy precip from 72-120 hours out then let the north bleed the last 48 hours bring the big fish into the boat. The block will prevent a big jump north so northern va should be fine too but I've played this game so many times I know the play book by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It is happening right now. Yeah, I get that Phin. With that model suite, it happened. I am not certain that one can simply assume (correctly) that it will happen with each subsequent run from here to precipitation. I hope so. But my concern is that fringed this time of year, with not enough rates, is not really snow that will stick. So, yeah, hope it comes more north, but I am not at all certain it will keep showing the precip further north. I hope so, but I am not remotely confident it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 better snow Tues-Wed because Euro has BWI in the upper 40's to around 50 on Thurs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 BWI Verbatim: WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.7 -4.5 0.08 THU 00Z 07-MAR 3.1 -2.8 0.29 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.8 -2.5 0.26 THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.9 -1.3 0.07 THU 18Z 07-MAR 8.1 -1.9 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There's 2 ways to look at that though. N trend with slp and n trend with precip shield. As is, this is a pretty money run with slp placement. How far N-W of the low the heaviest precip goes is super tricky when we're talking 30 miles or so at any range except very short leads. IF things go like the euro shows, there is going to be a fairly large and relatively intense shield. We're all very much in the game still. Fair enough. And I am not asking for hand-holding over it, just noting that "north trend" isn't something I generally take comfort in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 BWI Verbatim: WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.7 -4.5 0.08 THU 00Z 07-MAR 3.1 -2.8 0.29 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.8 -2.5 0.26 THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.9 -1.3 0.07 THU 18Z 07-MAR 8.1 -1.9 0.01 which is >2x the 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 better snow Tues-Wed because Euro has BWI in the upper 40's to around 50 on Thurs lol Unfortunately that will be normal or even slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Fair enough. And I am not asking for hand-holding over it, just noting that "north trend" isn't something I generally take comfort in. our NE friends have done jsut fine with it as long as I've been on the internet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Biggest takeaway I'm seeing so far is the "south" trend from yesterday has stopped and it's slowly bleeding north. Has this vort made landfall yet in NW Pacific yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i doubt anyone cares how quickly model snow will melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 looks like about 2-3"/3-4" in the city.. but sharp increase just west. sfc temps try to creep near 40 by 0z tho. How much do temps in general (over the area) increase by that time? If it's possible to tell, that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 OKV is money: WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.3 -6.3 0.13 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -5.0 0.49 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.0 -4.0 0.39 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.5 -3.4 0.30 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.1 -2.4 0.10 IAD: WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -5.0 0.09 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.3 -4.4 0.34 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.1 -2.8 0.40 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.3 -3.1 0.29 THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.1 -1.7 0.09 THU 18Z 07-MAR 6.1 -1.6 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Unfortunately that will be normal or even slightly below. I'm ready for it, and warmer, but at least several inches of snow would be nice to remember this season by while I wait for the NINO to come full blown later in the year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 snow map.. lol center is 18-24, then 12-18, then 8-12, then 4-8, then good luck figuring o9ut the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How far north does the precip shield go? Anyone let me know for KMDT? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So we break our streak in DCA? looks like about 2-3"/3-4" in the city.. but sharp increase just west. sfc temps try to creep near 40 by 0z tho. thats it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 thats it?? Right? Right there with you. Not sure how great this run is at that point, given this time of year and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 thats it?? somewhere in there. might be on the edge of the 4-8.. tiny map -- hard to read even blown up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 thats it?? It's the temps not the precip though. Get a 3am start and worry once the sun comes up. And worrying about temps shouldn't be priority at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 of course if the snow map is 10:1 it's probably too high overall. they're iffy as we know anyway.. but still useful for where the center pt is etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 like I thought, CHO's numbers are impressive on the Euro over .8" in 1 6-hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 we need a 25-50 N trend to get off the ledge right/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 With the info that swimmatte posted, I'd be looking at 1.4" precip with good temps. I think that would work, lol. We all know this won't be the final solution and I def agree with Mitch, I think it's not done coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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